3. Technical Analysis and On-Chain Positioning

Summary: The total market capitalization is $2.28T, below its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2.35T and 30-day SMA of $2.79T. The RSI(14) at 25.44 indicates oversold conditions. Meanwhile, assets under management (AUM) in Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to $96.8B from $107.41B last week.

What it means: This is neutral to bearish. The oversold RSI suggests that technically there could be a bounce, but the persistent capitalization below key averages and the drop in AUM of ETFs confirm strong selling pressure and lack of institutional demand.

Conclusion

Market sentiment is currently bearish, dominated by extreme fear driven by news of institutional outflows and a weak technical structure. Although oversold readings suggest a possible short-term bounce, the main trend remains down until ETF flows stabilize or a positive macroeconomic catalyst appears. It is recommended to monitor daily flows of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. over the next 24-48 hours for signs of a return of institutional buying.