Current market background: A tug-of-war between "traditional holiday" and "realistic pressure"
· Macroeconomic breather: The U.S. January CPI data released last night exceeded expectations and fell back, temporarily alleviating market concerns about the Federal Reserve accelerating tightening, providing a short-term breathing opportunity for risk assets.
· Internal "cold air" is pressing: Although external pressures have eased somewhat, the cryptocurrency market itself is undergoing a severe test. Institutional funds continue to flow out (the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with $1.6 billion flowing out in February, totaling nearly $8 billion withdrawn), and market sentiment has plunged into extreme fear. Standard Chartered even warned that before the market stabilizes, Bitcoin may further dip to $50,000.
· Key price levels: Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $68,000, while Ethereum struggles at the $2,000 mark. These two positions are the short-term dividing line for bulls and bears.
Spring Festival market patterns: The ten-year winning streak has been broken.
Looking back at history, the Spring Festival is indeed an important emotional node in the crypto space:
· Glorious decade (2015-2024): Bitcoin has seen price increases during the Spring Festival for ten consecutive years, with gains ranging from 0.8% to 19.5%, forming a solid 'Spring Festival red envelope' memory.
· Inflection point appeared (2025): Last year's Spring Festival, this winning streak was first broken, with Bitcoin dropping by 4.8%.
· 2026 outlook: The key this year is whether the market will restore confidence and return to the old trajectory of 'Spring Festival increases,' or continue last year's weakness and explore new lows under macro pressure.
Next week's operational advice: Defend and counterattack, wait for signals.
Based on the above information, the Spring Festival market next week may experience significant volatility. My advice is: abandon predictions and prepare for responses.
1. Short-term speculation (left-side trading, high risk): If you plan to speculate on the Spring Festival rebound, you must strictly control your positions and stop-losses.
· Entry: You can test with a small portion of your position in the $65,000-$68,000 range.
· Defense: Strictly set stop-losses below $63,000. If it falls below, it indicates the market chooses to go down, and you should immediately stop-loss and exit.
· Target: Resistance levels for rebounds are seen at $75,000-$80,000.
2. Cautious observation (right-side trading, low risk): For most investors, the current strategy of caution is more prudent. In a turbulent environment, preserving capital is more important than speculating on rebounds. You can wait for the following three clear 'offensive horns' to sound before taking action:
· Signal one: Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs cease and turn into net inflows for three consecutive days or more.
· Signal two: The Coinbase premium index returns to positive territory, indicating that institutional buying in the U.S. has resumed.
· Signal three: Price firmly reestablishes above the key resistance level of $75,000.
3. Position management: Regardless of your investor type, it is recommended to keep total positions below 30%-40% and maintain sufficient cash. For high-market-cap altcoins, especially those facing large unlocks, it is advisable to temporarily avoid them.
At this current stage, the core logic of the market is shifting from 'telling stories' to 'looking at cash flow,' which is a painful maturation process. The short-term Spring Festival market may experience fluctuations, but true opportunities often arise after risks are released.
Wishing you successful investments and a thriving account during the Spring Festival!
