Recently, under the influence of multiple factors, both ETH and BTC have shown a relatively obvious pullback trend, and both have run to the vicinity of key support and rebound zones:

BTC has fallen to about 86000, while ETH has found support around the 2800 level.

From a macro perspective, tonight will see several important events, including the release of the US CPI data, Trump's speech, and the consumer confidence index; tomorrow will be the Japanese interest rate decision meeting. Among them, the expectation of a Japanese interest rate hike has basically been fully digested by the market, and the real impact on the market will still depend on the performance of the US data tonight.

From a technical perspective, there are already signs of a phase bottom in the larger trend, and the bottom structure is gradually becoming clearer. If the CPI data released at 21:30 is favorable, it is possible that ETH could directly attack 3100 tonight and further test the 3300 level tomorrow.

Although some individuals in the US have recently released hawkish remarks, it ultimately still needs to be referenced against actual economic data. Before the data shows a significant weakness, the marginal impact of such remarks is relatively limited.

It is important to note that even if a rebound occurs in the short term, it cannot be ruled out that it is a false rally. From a broader economic environment perspective, the fundamentals remain relatively weak, and after the market's emotional repair, caution should still be exercised regarding repeated fluctuations and risks.

Overall thinking:

In the short term, data-driven rebounds are expected, while in the medium term, attention should still be paid to pullbacks and false breakouts.