999999

I was already asleep but was awakened by price alerts to increase my position. Truly diligent and responsible for every member.
Whether we can go up to make a big profit depends on today's closing.
eth #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 #BTC走势分析 #白宫加密会议

Last night, ETH experienced a textbook-level "downward sweep," with the price briefly dropping below the 2200 mark, reaching around 2150. This move precisely cleared the high-leverage long positions and stop-loss orders of large holders, completing a quick turnover of chips at the low. Subsequently, the market violently rebounded, returning above 2350 today.
Current Situation:
During the day, market volatility has converged, currently encountering short-term resistance at the 2350 level. The price is in the "second test of support" phase, with a focus on the defense strength in the 2300 - 2280 range.
Core Data Interpretation
• On-chain Trends: Monitoring shows that during yesterday's dip, some whale addresses not only remained active but also exhibited signs of passive buying. The net outflow of ETH on the exchange (Binance) has increased, indicating that chips are shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders.
• Contract Indicators: After last night's liquidation, the overall funding rate has been corrected, significantly alleviating the pressure on long leverage. Current Open Interest is stabilizing, suggesting a new round of accumulation is underway.
Evening Operational Strategy
1. Support Confirmation: If the evening can hold the neckline position at 2280, the second test will be successful, and the confidence of long positions will be stronger.
2. Key Breakpoint: The upper resistance range of 2380 - 2400 needs to be closely monitored. If this area is broken with volume, the upward space will be fully opened.
3. Subsequent Targets: * First target: 2580
• Medium-term strong resistance: 2770
Summary:
"The chips on the tip of the needle are the most stable." Yesterday's dip seemed more like a deep squat for a jump. As long as 2300 is not lost, the rebound logic still holds.

Morning ETH precise pin 2631 then entered a narrow range of fluctuations. The market is currently at a critical point of long and short position reversal, downward attention should be paid to the "life and death line" of large holders' leverage, while upward focus should be on the recovery strength of 2700.
1. Space calculation and support defense line:
• Core support: short-term view at 2660, deep support attention on the 2610 - 2600 range.
• Risk warning: a large number of strong clearing prices from large holders are concentrated around 2610. If the price approaches this area, liquidity risks should be monitored; however, in my view, there is strong rebound momentum around 2600.
• Downward extreme point: if the 2500 level is lost, the lower space will directly open up to around 2100.
2. Short-term speculation path:
• Bullish confirmation: if the 1-hour line can close above 2680, it can be seen as a short-term stabilization signal.
• Counterattack target: if it can stabilize at 2700 at 20:00 tonight, then this round of adjustment will end temporarily, looking high to the pressure range of 2780 - 2880 tomorrow.
• Bearish expectation: if it encounters resistance at 2700 - 2730, then it is necessary to guard against a second downward probe to find a new bottom at 2550 - 2500.

At 12 o'clock Trump will deliver a speech, and may announce the situation of the next Federal Reserve chairman.
Here is a list of candidates and their characteristics:
1. Popular candidates and their factions
Kevin Warsh: Currently the most popular candidate, belonging to the 'pro-market establishment'. He has a background as a former Federal Reserve governor and Wall Street genes, and is believed to be able to align with Trump's policies while maintaining market confidence.
Rick Rieder: A 'market practitioner' from BlackRock. He represents Wall Street capital, is extremely focused on liquidity, and has a typical hands-on style.
Christopher Waller: Current governor, belonging to the 'professional academic faction'. He is a symbol of policy continuity, best embodying the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Kevin Hassett: Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, belonging to the 'super-dovish loyalists'. He advocates for significant interest rate cuts to align with Trump's fiscal policies.
1. Policy stance tendencies
These candidates are generally more inclined to cut interest rates (dovish) than current Chairman Powell, but with different emphases. Warsh and Waller focus more on rules and credibility, while Hassett and Rieder lean more towards stimulating growth or stabilizing the market through monetary easing.
1. Potential impact on financial markets
If Warsh is elected: Market expectations are the most stable, seen as a positive, and can quell concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve.
If Rieder is elected: The stock and bond markets will be boosted, as he is more inclined to provide liquidity support.
If Hassett is elected: Although it is a short-term boost for the stock market, his excessive obedience to the White House may raise market concerns about long-term inflation and the credit deterioration of U.S. Treasuries.
In summary, this nomination is not only about interest rate trends but also concerns the independence of the Federal Reserve in the coming years and the credibility of the dollar in the global market. The nomination result is expected to be officially announced within a few hours.

ETH 1.28 Market Simulation: 3000 Points Gamble and Macroeconomic Choices】
1. Current Situation: ETH has broken through 3000 and is oscillating at a high level, with on-chain whales appearing defensively to reduce their positions. The market is holding its breath waiting for tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's speech.
2. Key Defensive Level: 2950 USDT
• Simulation: As long as the data does not break below 2950 before and after the release, the oscillating upward bullish structure remains solid.
• Risk: If it breaks this level with volume, it may retrace to 2500 - 2100 to find support.
3. Key Breakout Point: 3200 USDT
• Simulation: As long as the daily closing price remains steady around 3200, the breakout will be confirmed.
• Target: In the short term, looking at 3600, and in the medium term aiming for the 4100 level.
4. Summary: Consolidation is to build momentum, and tonight is a key node for directional choice. In terms of operation, hold the support and go with the trend.

What kind of market is this..... still thinking about holding for a week

Just now 2990 didn't settle, it dropped in the blink of an eye. This can't be a false rally, right?

Sold out, went all in around 3150

Recently, I couldn't stand the contract market anymore. I played with events for a whole day today, and there are 2 hours left before the business adjustment. I quickly opened 2 orders.

When the environment is poor and the direction is unclear, sometimes choosing to lie flat is not a wrong choice

Recently, the market has experienced a mini storm. Gold and silver saw a flash crash yesterday, mainly due to the CME raising margin requirements and year-end profit-taking. Meanwhile, although the cryptocurrency ETF showed a net outflow, the price performance of BTC and ETH remained surprisingly strong. BTC held steady at 87k, and ETH held firm at 2900. This 'not falling' performance indicates that the internal supporting force of the market is stronger than expected, with chips transferring from those who are wavering to long-term holders.
Stage assessment: Horizontal consolidation and games during the vacuum period
We are currently at the end of the year, with the Hong Kong stock market closed, and the market has entered a vacuum period in terms of news. Apart from tomorrow's unemployment claims data, there is a lack of strong external catalysts in the short term. In a low liquidity environment, small fluctuations in the U.S. stock and futures markets will be amplified. It is expected that by next week, ETH will likely remain in the range of 2900 to 3100, oscillating and building momentum.
Key points: Maintain 2900, aim for 3500
From the current market logic, 2900 is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it effectively breaks below 2900, market confidence may collapse, and we may need to look back at the deep squat support around 2500, which usually accompanies a thorough deleveraging. If it can break through the pressure zone of 3150 to 3200 with volume, the upper space will open directly.
Target range of 3500 to 3700 is not only a previously dense trading area but also a psychological level with the most trapped positions. Once this area is reached, it is likely to trigger profit-taking, leading to a wave of correction. The ideal trend is to maintain oscillation around 3100, and if a 'deep V' action occurs at 2500, it would actually clear obstacles for a more robust upward trend in the future.
Summary and recommendations
Currently, it is a silent period before the policy is implemented. On-chain data shows that the holding cost line for large holders is between 2800 and 2900, which provides solid support for the current price. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the strength of the breakthrough at 3200 and the defense strength at 2900. Before a clear directional breakthrough occurs, maintain a range mindset and be wary of the instantaneous fluctuations brought about by year-end liquidity exhaustion.

Recently, the market has been continuously impacted by multiple macroeconomic factors:
• The U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are stronger than expected, reinforcing expectations for high interest rates to be maintained for longer
• Federal Reserve officials continue to release hawkish signals
• Japan's unexpected interest rate hike/policy shift has triggered a repricing of global liquidity

According to traditional logic, this type of macro environment should be favorable for the safe-haven and hedging properties of gold and crypto assets.
However, actual market feedback shows a clear divergence:
• Gold has risen strongly, once approaching 4400 USD/ounce, with its safe-haven attributes fully priced in
• U.S. stocks and the crypto market are exhibiting high volatility, with intense long-short battles and unclear direction

This indicates that current funds are neither fully "risk-on" nor "risk-off," but are more inclined towards short-cycle speculation.

Short-term bearish phase support factors

Although from a macro and mid-term perspective, the overall environment is not friendly to risk assets, there are still some structural positives in the short term:
1. Time node factors
• Christmas and New Year's Day are approaching, leading to a temporary warming of liquidity
• Before year-end settlements, institutions tend to stabilize net worth rather than actively sell off
2. Crypto market own factors
• ETF-related funds still have temporary inflows, providing bottom support for prices
• Leverage has been cleared multiple times in the past, limiting space for further sharp declines in the short term

Therefore, from a technical and rhythmic perspective —
This week (the last trading week of the year), even if no significant rise occurs, it will be difficult to experience a one-sided large drop.

Technical and rhythmic judgment (key points)
• Currently, the higher probability is:
Volume expansion oscillation + Range tug-of-war
• Time structure:
• This week (Monday to Friday): Continuation of oscillation
• After December 29–30:
• Holiday liquidity decline
• New Year expectations repricing
• Direction selection is more likely, leaning towards downward

ETH key range and trend expectations
• Core oscillation range:
3200 / 3300 —— 2800 / 2500
• Key support below:
• Around 2500 is a strong support zone
• If it first retraces to this area and holds
It is highly probable that a technical rebound will occur
• Target judgment:
• If it breaks below 2800 → Look to 2500
• If 2500 is lost → Mid-term bearish trend confirmed
• If it stabilizes in the 2500–2600 range → Rebound height is limited, more of a repair market

Can it reach 3000+ or is it 2500?

Recently, under the influence of multiple factors, both ETH and BTC have shown a relatively obvious pullback trend, and both have run to the vicinity of key support and rebound zones:
BTC has fallen to about 86000, while ETH has found support around the 2800 level.

From a macro perspective, tonight will see several important events, including the release of the US CPI data, Trump's speech, and the consumer confidence index; tomorrow will be the Japanese interest rate decision meeting. Among them, the expectation of a Japanese interest rate hike has basically been fully digested by the market, and the real impact on the market will still depend on the performance of the US data tonight.

From a technical perspective, there are already signs of a phase bottom in the larger trend, and the bottom structure is gradually becoming clearer. If the CPI data released at 21:30 is favorable, it is possible that ETH could directly attack 3100 tonight and further test the 3300 level tomorrow.

Although some individuals in the US have recently released hawkish remarks, it ultimately still needs to be referenced against actual economic data. Before the data shows a significant weakness, the marginal impact of such remarks is relatively limited.

It is important to note that even if a rebound occurs in the short term, it cannot be ruled out that it is a false rally. From a broader economic environment perspective, the fundamentals remain relatively weak, and after the market's emotional repair, caution should still be exercised regarding repeated fluctuations and risks.

Overall thinking:
In the short term, data-driven rebounds are expected, while in the medium term, attention should still be paid to pullbacks and false breakouts.

Recently, the core variables affecting the global market mainly come from the comprehensive change in the Federal Reserve's policy direction: the implementation of interest rate cuts, the official end of balance sheet reduction, and the initiation of RMP to supplement reserves and stabilize short-term liquidity. Although RMP is emphasized by officials as a technical operation and not traditional QE, its result is still to replenish liquidity in the banking system while keeping short-term interest rates in a moderate range. Overall, the policy mix has shifted from 'tight balance' to 'moderate easing', with funding costs decreasing and market risk appetite marginally recovering.

In such an environment, gold and the crypto market have become the most direct beneficiaries, but their paths of policy transmission differ. The core driver for gold comes from real interest rates and the direction of the US dollar. Interest rate cuts lead to a decline in nominal interest rates, while inflation expectations have not fully receded, combined with the market betting on potential further rate cuts, resulting in a continuous downward trend in real interest rates. The decline in real interest rates is the fundamental reason for gold prices reaching new highs, with current gold prices stabilizing at $4,200. The short-term support area is roughly between $4,100–$4,150, with the main trend support level around $4,000; resistance is concentrated in the $4,350–$4,450 range. The overall structure remains bullish, as long as US real interest rates do not rise again, gold still has conditions for further highs.

Cryptocurrency assets (especially BTC and ETH) are more sensitive to liquidity; therefore, the simultaneous occurrence of interest rate cuts, halting balance sheet reduction, and RMP constitutes a more direct impetus for crypto. BTC is currently in a healthy high-level oscillation structure, with major support concentrated in the $86,000–$90,000 range; as long as this level is maintained, the mid-term bullish trend remains unchanged; attention is on the trend breakthroughs at $100,000 and $102,000. ETH has a catch-up attribute, with core support at $2,700–$2,800; if it can stabilize and break through the $3,200–$3,500 range, it will return to the trend channel. Overall, the elasticity of the crypto market is clearly greater than that of gold, and its rise and fall rhythm relies more on changes in liquidity expectations and short-term risk aversion sentiment.

In summary, the current policy environment provides common support for gold and crypto: gold benefits from declining real interest rates, while crypto benefits from warming liquidity and decreasing funding costs. The short-term market remains strong, but the core risks to be aware of are recurring inflation, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding policy pace, and the potential volatility brought about by the RMP's strength not meeting expectations.

December Environmental Overview

The core variables of the current market stem from a comprehensive shift in the Federal Reserve's policy path: interest rate cuts, halting balance sheet reduction, and the initiation of RMP (Reserve Management Purchases). The interest rate has been lowered to 3.50–3.75%, reducing financing costs and providing valuation support for risk assets; the official end of balance sheet reduction signifies a pause in the continuous drainage over the past three years, alleviating system liquidity pressure; while the RMP's monthly purchase of approximately $40 billion in short-term government bonds, although positioned as a technical operation of 'supplementing reserves,' nonetheless results in the central bank's balance sheet expanding again, constituting a substantial 'mini-expansion.' Overall, the funding environment has shifted from a tight balance to a moderately accommodative stance.

Under this set of policy combinations, the market direction is gradually becoming clearer. The stock market is biased towards strength in the short term, supported by declining interest rates and stabilizing liquidity that bolster risk appetite, but medium-term observations are still needed to see if inflation rises again. The bond market shows a rapid decline in short-term rates while long-term rates remain sticky, resulting in a steeper yield curve. The dollar has marginally weakened under the pressures of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, but the trend is still influenced by the policies of other economies.

The impact on gold and cryptocurrency warrants special emphasis. Gold benefits from the decline in real interest rates and the weakening of the dollar, maintaining a neutral to bullish pattern, but due to the limited expansion of RMP, current liquidity is insufficient to drive gold into a comprehensive trend-driven bull market; its movement depends more on the balance between real interest rates and inflation expectations. Cryptocurrencies are most sensitive to liquidity; the combined effect of interest rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion improves the funding environment, allowing Bitcoin and mainstream assets to remain relatively strong in the short term. The marginal improvement in funding conditions helps support prices, but medium-term trends still need to pay attention to inflation and policy consistency; if inflation rises or the Fed shifts to a hawkish stance again, volatility in cryptocurrencies may increase first.

Overall, the current policy direction presents short-term benefits for the market, but the medium-term risks lie in recurring inflation, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, and the limited effect of RMP. In trading, one should seize the opportunities brought by liquidity improvements while remaining vigilant for a potential policy shift.