Recently, the market has experienced a mini storm. Gold and silver saw a flash crash yesterday, mainly due to the CME raising margin requirements and year-end profit-taking. Meanwhile, although the cryptocurrency ETF showed a net outflow, the price performance of BTC and ETH remained surprisingly strong. BTC held steady at 87k, and ETH held firm at 2900. This 'not falling' performance indicates that the internal supporting force of the market is stronger than expected, with chips transferring from those who are wavering to long-term holders.

Stage assessment: Horizontal consolidation and games during the vacuum period

We are currently at the end of the year, with the Hong Kong stock market closed, and the market has entered a vacuum period in terms of news. Apart from tomorrow's unemployment claims data, there is a lack of strong external catalysts in the short term. In a low liquidity environment, small fluctuations in the U.S. stock and futures markets will be amplified. It is expected that by next week, ETH will likely remain in the range of 2900 to 3100, oscillating and building momentum.

Key points: Maintain 2900, aim for 3500

From the current market logic, 2900 is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it effectively breaks below 2900, market confidence may collapse, and we may need to look back at the deep squat support around 2500, which usually accompanies a thorough deleveraging. If it can break through the pressure zone of 3150 to 3200 with volume, the upper space will open directly.

Target range of 3500 to 3700 is not only a previously dense trading area but also a psychological level with the most trapped positions. Once this area is reached, it is likely to trigger profit-taking, leading to a wave of correction. The ideal trend is to maintain oscillation around 3100, and if a 'deep V' action occurs at 2500, it would actually clear obstacles for a more robust upward trend in the future.

Summary and recommendations

Currently, it is a silent period before the policy is implemented. On-chain data shows that the holding cost line for large holders is between 2800 and 2900, which provides solid support for the current price. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the strength of the breakthrough at 3200 and the defense strength at 2900. Before a clear directional breakthrough occurs, maintain a range mindset and be wary of the instantaneous fluctuations brought about by year-end liquidity exhaustion.