On the first day of the New Year, the US dollar has splashed everyone with a bucket of cold water! It dropped a full 8% in 2025, setting an 8-year record. But this is just the beginning; next, we will face a more crazy suspense: Who is the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which will directly determine whether the money in your hands continues to shrink or rebounds!

Why is the dollar so weak?

In simple terms, this is a psychological battle of early resignation. The current dollar is like a large company that knows it will change leadership; everyone thinks Trump will arrange for a 'money printer' to succeed Powell. Everyone is betting that as soon as the new chairman takes office, there will be aggressive interest rate cuts. Coupled with Trump's tariff stick in April, the dollar has yet to recover.

Now, the focus is on these two men named 'Kevin.'

→ Hassett, Trump's confidant, is a typical 'rate cutter.' If he takes office, the dollar is likely to drop further, which is real monetary easing.

→ Warsh, who seems more like a centrist. The latest news is that Warsh's support rate is soaring. If it ends up being him, the dollar might rebound instead. It's like choosing a coach: do you choose an offensive maniac or a defensive master? The players (market) have completely different expectations now.

I want to remind everyone of a detail: everyone has been bearish on the dollar for 9 years. But what has been the result? In the past 9 years, the dollar has risen in 6 of those years! The consensus in the market is often lagging. When everyone thinks it will drop, it is often the beginning of a reversal.

The dollar's trend in January will be more unpredictable.

Is a weaker dollar good or bad for the crypto world?

Just remember one simple logic: the dollar is the 'pricing anchor' of global assets. If the dollar continues to 'shrink' due to a change in Federal Reserve leadership, then digital gold like Bitcoin becomes a natural safe haven. When people do not trust fiat currency, funds will flood into the crypto market like a deluge. But I hope you do not only focus on Bitcoin. If the next Federal Reserve chairman is a 'tech person,' besides cutting interest rates, their regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be the real bombshell benefit.

In 2026, the timing difference in the dollar's leadership change may be our biggest turnaround opportunity in the past two years.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year, let’s eat well in the first wave of big market movements together!