章魚同學Nikki

Bitcoin has turned down from a high of $126,000, correcting by 40%. Is this really a 'technical deep squat', or is the legendary 'four-year halving death curse' back again? Now not only are Asian stocks rising, gold is soaring, and even Musk's xAI has pulled off a massive merger worth $12.5 trillion.

Since the global market is recovering, why isn't money flowing into the crypto circle? In the past two days, the Asian stock market has gone crazy, with the MSCI Asia index posting its largest gain since June last year, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. The logic behind it is simple: the AI frenzy has reignited. Musk just dropped a nuclear bomb, as SpaceX officially announced the merger with xAI to create a trillion-dollar space-based computing engine. It's like discovering that the gold and high-tech farms in the neighboring village are giving out crazy dividends; who would still be stuck in that virtual currency that could 'collapse' at any moment and yields no interest?

Are those who got trapped really still the same group of retail investors? This is a silent harvest specifically targeting wealthy elites. Data shows that buyers entering through ETFs have an average cost of $84,000, while the current price is only around $78,000. This means that the so-called 'smart money' is facing an average paper loss of nearly 10%. It's like you confidently followed the big players to buy top-tier school district properties, but before the house was even built, the surrounding property prices already took a 10% discount. When this group of stable long-term capital discovers that Bitcoin has decoupled from all safe-haven assets, previously it was the dollar weak and geopolitical chaos that drove it up; what about now? It seems to be left in a state of dead silence.

Besides AI, who else is grabbing money? Take a look at Trump's Vault plan, which invests $12 billion to establish a strategic mineral reserve, instantly boosting the rare earth sector.

Have you noticed? Money is flowing into areas that are visible, tangible, and can change productivity. If Bitcoin cannot hold the support level of $74,500, the psychological defense line will collapse. If reaching $120,000 by 2025 relied on a story, now that the story is over and a new catalyst has yet to appear, the market has fallen into a vicious cycle of price drops—buyers watching the show—lower confidence.

If you are looking to make a quick profit and leave, now is definitely not the ideal time to enter. However, for true long-term holders, moments of panic where even Wall Street institutions start to doubt their lives and consider cutting losses often signal a window of relative low points.

Why did Bitcoin not surge to 150,000, but instead briefly spike to 75,500 USD under the watchful eyes of everyone? Why, at this moment when the world needs safe havens the most, have safe-haven assets collectively disappeared? When tariffs are flying everywhere, even physical gold has plummeted. Could it be that in this chaos, even hedging itself has become an expensive bubble?

Many people do not understand, shouldn't the chaos cause gold and Bitcoin to rise? Don't forget, Bitcoin is no longer a toy in the hands of geeks, but a high-risk chip in the hands of institutions.

Tariff expectations have directly strengthened the dollar, and CME has raised gold margin requirements at this time. The result is that institutions, in order to fill the gap in global leveraged positions, are forced to sell the most liquid gold for cash. Remember, when a real financial tsunami comes, all assets will first turn into cash. This chain of liquidations has turned gold into an ATM, while Bitcoin has become a victim.

How severe is this "de-leveraging" pain?
In the past 24 hours, the sell-off has caused the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization to evaporate by approximately 111 billion USD. During the same period, about 1.6 billion USD of positions were liquidated across the network—most of which happened in just four short hours. This disappearing 1.6 billion essentially represents those leveraged long positions betting on "good news" at high levels, collectively executed by the market under the heavy blow of tariff bad news.

Since hedging has failed, does this mean we need to reshape our asset allocation logic?
At 4,700 for gold and 75,000 for Bitcoin, which one is more cost-effective? At this point, we can't just look at price fluctuations. If gold is the shield of old trust, Bitcoin is the spear of new credit.

The current double kill is essentially a "risk rebalancing" occurring amidst global financial chaos. This correction is not the end of a bull market, but a reordering after an identity crisis.

Do you think that the current cash is king is merely a temporary safe haven, or a long-term tightening signal?

Just last Friday, the gold and silver markets experienced the most brutal 'massacre' since 1980. If you have gold or silver in hand, you might have lost sleep last night as silver plummeted by 31% in one day, and gold recorded the largest single-day drop in history in USD. This kind of volatility, more exaggerated than air coins, why would it happen to the most stable precious metals? The answer seems to point to one name: Kevin Warsh.

Trump has officially nominated him as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. At this point, you might ask: isn't it just a change of the person in charge? Why would the market react this way? We can imagine the Federal Reserve as a butler helping the host throw a party.

The previous butler, Powell, was more smooth, and everyone felt that even if inflation was high, he would continue to play music and serve free drinks (cut interest rates), so people frantically bought gold as a hedge, betting on 'currency devaluation'.

But Warsh is different. In the previous article, I mentioned that he is known in the circle as a notorious miser. His logic is simple: as long as inflation does not go back to normal, I will cut off the water and electricity (raise interest rates/contract balance sheet). So when everyone realizes that this person who resembles a teaching director is about to walk in, what is the first reaction? It is to withdraw investment.

In the past few months, global funds have poured into gold and silver, engaging in devaluation trades, betting that the dollar will collapse. As a result, the moment he appears, the dollar index skyrockets, recording the largest increase in months. It’s like you bought a bunch of insurance for accidents, only to find that accidents won’t happen at all; thus, the huge premiums you paid (the premium) naturally become a bubble. But what’s even stranger is: if it’s just a change of chairman, why is even industrial copper falling? Is this all just panic from retail investors?

Not really. Behind this is not only the reversal of expectations but also the exhaustion of liquidity. Additionally, the internal 'palace drama' currently unfolding within the Federal Reserve: the current chairman Powell is being investigated by the Justice Department due to old accounts of building renovations, which he claims is political intimidation. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to completely clean out the dovish forces within the Federal Reserve. Does this mean the bull market for precious metals is completely over?

Currently, the market predicts that Warsh will officially take office in June. Before that, gold is still holding at 4700 USD. Do you think a strong dollar era is really coming back? Or is this just a psychological battle by Trump to lower inflation?

The performance of gold prices in the past 24 hours has been quite shocking, plummeting from a high of about $5,626, with a decline close to 5%. Bitcoin has dropped to around $82,000, hitting a two-month low.

The movements in global markets over the past few days have left many investors dumbfounded. Originally, it was expected that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut interest rates, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks, government bonds, gold, and Bitcoin have all collectively fallen. Why has gold failed during such turbulent times?

The market is currently digesting a highly controversial piece of news: Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Who is he? He was a Federal Reserve governor and is well-known in the financial world. Although he has recently publicly supported interest rate cuts to cater to Trump's political needs, the market has not forgotten his long-standing hawkish nature. Betting platform Polymarket shows that the probability of his selection has soared to 80%.

If Trump really appoints a hawk in sheep's clothing, will our anticipated rate-cutting cycle be cut short? This is why U.S. Treasury yields are rising and the dollar continues to strengthen, as everyone is lowering their expectations for easing policies.

While the financial market is entangled over the selection of the Federal Reserve, geopolitics has thrown a bombshell. Reports indicate that the U.S. military has deployed 10 warships in the Middle East. Iran has also issued a clear warning: if the U.S. launches an attack, Iran will immediately strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers.

Typically, when geopolitical wars break out, gold prices should soar; why has gold instead fallen nearly 5% this time? It indicates that the current strength of the dollar and rising yields have become strong enough to overshadow the support of safe-haven sentiment.

The current situation gives me the impression that: the boss (Trump) wants to find an obedient accountant (Warsh) to lower interest rates, but this accountant was famously stingy in the past, causing creditors (the market) to quickly sell off their IOUs. If Warsh takes office and turns hawkish, combined with the war in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and reigniting inflation, do we still have a safe haven for our assets?

The current deadlock is clear: as long as the dollar remains strong, gold and Bitcoin will struggle to see the light of day. And if those 10 warships in the Middle East really take action, the secondary damage from soaring oil prices will make the Federal Reserve even more reluctant to cut rates.

Don't ask me if gold can still be bought anymore.

First, you need to clarify who is actually buying now? The mainstream narrative will tell you: this is the central banks of various countries de-dollarizing, preparing for the end of the fiat currency system. Even legendary investor Ray Dalio said this is an inevitable path under major conflict. But if central banks are really frantically emptying their gold reserves, why do we see completely opposite signals in trade data?

We need to look at the data. London is the global center for gold and silver trading, and the data from UK customs acts as a thermometer for central bank purchases. Although the purchasing volume of central banks did double after 2022, by November, the UK's gold export volume actually plummeted by 80% year-on-year. China is the number one buyer, but in November, the total amount of gold imported from the UK was less than 10 tons, far below the average level. If the real major buyers are holding back, why can gold prices still be maintained at high levels?

There is a rational logic here: central banks also think gold is too expensive.

When gold prices rise, the market value of gold in reserves will automatically increase. For example, Poland originally wanted to raise the gold proportion to 30%, but because the gold price is too high, this goal has almost been automatically achieved, and they will naturally slow down their purchasing pace. In fact, the strongest driving force for sovereign purchases is already on the edge of retreat.

Since exports are declining, where did the gold go?
The answer is: it stayed in the gold vaults in London. Why buy gold and not transport it back to their country? The first reason is for liquidity. As long as the gold does not leave London, it can be realized on the books at any time; once transported away, additional costs for appraisal and transportation must be paid. The second reason, according to data from the London Bullion Market Association, the amount of gold in the vaults increased by 199 tons in December.

Historically, when vault reserves significantly increase while export volumes are extremely low, it usually indicates that sovereign purchases have reached their end.
To put it bluntly, the people buying gold now have no intention of putting the gold into their national treasury; they are just buying a certificate called an unallocated account. What they possess is merely a debt claim against the vault. It feels like the current strength is more like a gold-worshiping religion supported by market inertia. People no longer care whether the dollar collapses or not; they only care if there is another speculator willing to pay a higher price to buy this certificate from me.

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As digital gold, Bitcoin has not taken off and remains hovering below $88,000, having dropped about 4% in the past week.

Why do funds rush into gold when the world feels uneasy, yet remain cautious about Bitcoin? For a long time, we have been accustomed to viewing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, recent data shows that cryptocurrencies are struggling to integrate into macro hedge trading. When the dollar weakens and risks increase, stocks and precious metals rise, yet Bitcoin is far below its October highs.

The current question is whether Bitcoin is being treated as digital gold or merely seen as a highly volatile stock sensitive to liquidity. Many analysts believe Bitcoin is currently underperforming compared to metals, with a bearish technical trend.

If Bitcoin is still in a dilemma, Ethereum seems to be undergoing a tear. Data shows that institutional investors withdrew over $630 million from Ethereum last week. But strangely, the spot Ethereum ETF saw an inflow of $110 million on Monday. If institutions are panicking, why do ETF investors view this as a buying opportunity? It’s clear there is a significant divergence in the market: some are actively reducing their holdings, while others are preparing for a rebound. This kind of game often occurs at critical psychological support levels like $3000.

If you only focus on insider news, you can easily misjudge the direction. The current trend depends more on this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the earnings reports of the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks. This sounds like a stock issue, but in reality, it affects the confidence baseline of global risk assets.

Why do Nvidia and Microsoft often lead to Bitcoin falling when they can’t rise? Over the past one to two years, the core narrative of the global bull market has been singular: AI. If the earnings reports of these giants indicate:
• Huge investment in AI
• But profits fail to meet expectations

Then the market will do one thing—kill valuations, reduce risk, and reclaim liquidity. Consequently, when tech stocks start to be "deflated," why should Bitcoin, categorized as a high-risk asset, remain unscathed?

Therefore, when large funds retreat from tech stocks, they often also reduce exposure to crypto assets. This is not a conspiracy, but a mathematical result of asset allocation.

Gold has broken 5000 dollars, a number never seen in human history.

Many people's first reaction is: "Can we still make money by buying gold now?"
Before that, I would like everyone to think about a question: Why, in the year 2026 when technology is so advanced, do humans still collectively retreat to this 'yellow metal' that 'cannot be eaten or used'?

If we view global finance as a competition, gold's opponent is actually credit. Last week, gold prices recorded the largest weekly increase since 2008. What happened at the same time?
· The U.S. is having tariff disputes with allies over the 'Greenland' issue;
· The Department of Justice is unprecedentedly investigating the Federal Reserve Chairman;
· Japan's bond market is also experiencing severe fluctuations due to spending plans.
This leads us to the second question: When the world's most recognized safe-haven currency, the dollar, and the institutional credibility behind it start to show cracks, do global central banks and smart money have better choices than switching to gold?

Experts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have mentioned a word: "uncertainty."

Previously, we felt that the world had rules. But recent events—from geopolitical conflicts to the unpredictable policies between great powers—are sending a signal: the old rules are failing.

Now, the third question arises: If even paper wealth like the dollar, euro, and yen is beginning to make people uneasy, then what is the upper limit of gold's value as an asset that 'doesn't require anyone's endorsement'? History tells us that whenever a new world order is established in pain, gold often becomes the only anchor point.

Seeing silver break 100 dollars and gold break 5000 dollars, many people will feel anxious, even thinking they have missed the opportunity to get rich. But I want to encourage everyone to think about the last question: If the rise in gold prices reflects a contraction of global credit, then do the other assets we hold still have purchasing power?

This may no longer be a question of "can we make money?" but rather a question of "how to avoid depreciation."

TikTok is finally no longer facing a ban, with Trump personally stepping in to 'put out the fire'!

Everyone thought this was a win for the United States or a loss for ByteDance. But did you look at the details of the agreement? This isn't a divestiture; it's practically a textbook-level wealth defense battle.

Why did TikTok, which was originally facing a death sentence, suddenly see its valuation soar back to 500 billion USD?
The twist is that ByteDance didn't 'sell out' but formed a joint venture. ByteDance holds 19.9% of the shares, which is the maximum allowed under U.S. law. More importantly, TikTok's e-commerce, advertising, and marketing—its most profitable assets—remain firmly in ByteDance's hands. One could say that ByteDance exchanged a small concession of nominal power for a valuation rebound worth hundreds of billions of USD and the entire U.S. market.

So the question arises: what exactly did the great patriotic investors that Trump mentioned gain?
This list is quite impressive, including Oracle, Silver Lake Partners, Dell... As expected, these are all Trump's allies. 80% of the joint venture's shares have been taken by this group of American capitalists. This isn't about addressing security issues; it's about year-end dividends. These giants didn't come in to do charity; they used compliance as a pretext to grant TikTok a permanent U.S. green card, while also taking a cut from future multi-billion dollar businesses.

But has the algorithm issue that everyone is most concerned about really been resolved?
Many people worry that the algorithm has been castrated, but the agreement states clearly: the algorithm is still authorized by ByteDance, it just needs to be retrained in Oracle's U.S. cloud environment. The brain is still the same brain; it's just being observed in a glass house made in America. This compromise actually provides both China and the U.S. with a way to save face. The hawks may be unhappy, but businesspeople are pleased. Everyone would rather continue doing business with China than truly sever ties.

What new signals about Sino-U.S. relations are hidden behind this deal?
The conclusion of the TikTok agreement marks the return of the big deal era. No matter how intense the geopolitical tensions, in the end, it's still about bowing to interests. ByteDance traded time for space, while Trump traded policy for achievements and the wallets of his allies, with everyone getting what they need.

Is TikTok completely safe this time, or has it merely received a three-year probation?

The summary is very accurate! The sell-off of US Treasuries has caused yields to soar, which in turn has pressured tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Next Article

This is the most noteworthy part of this news article.

As Japanese interest rates rose, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds also surged to 4.9%. This indicates that Japan is no longer the world's cheapest source of liquidity. As this wave of high interest rates spreads from Japan to the rest of the world, all risky assets, whether US stocks or cryptocurrencies, will face pressure for revaluation.

Professional traders are now betting on high-market trading: they are bullish on bank stocks, but are also wary of further volatility in the yen and Japanese bonds.

In my view, this "ladder-pulling" in the Japanese bond market is actually a signal of the end of the era of global quantitative easing. The macroeconomic logic has changed, and your investment strategy must change accordingly.

Do you think Japan can weather this storm with "wise spending," or will it become the first black swan event to detonate the market in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments section.

A data point that has been silent for nearly 20 years has recently broken records.

Japan's 40-year government bond yield has, for the first time since 2007, breached the 4% mark. People might think that 40 years is too far away and 4% is not that high. But you should know that Japan is the country with the highest debt pressure in the world, and this change in numbers is actually repricing the cost of funds globally. Why has the market started to collectively sell off Japanese government bonds at this point?

The most direct driving force behind this is the policy that Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is about to implement. She plans to send two signals before the elections in February:
First, to inject $135 billion for fiscal stimulus,
Second, to suspend the food consumption tax for two years.

From the government's perspective, this is an attempt to exchange money and tax cuts for economic growth, using growth to dilute debt. But in the eyes of investors, it looks like a large company with already high debt ratios is about to increase leverage for expansion. So, the question arises, why is the market no longer unconditionally supporting the Japanese government's borrowing like before?

Previously, there were buyers for Japanese bonds because the interest rates were low and expectations were stable. But now, Japan's debt has reached 250% of GDP, and the government is still seeking to expand spending. This has led to a problem: there are not enough long-term buyers left. Traditional buyers, like life insurance companies and pension funds, are now demanding higher 'premiums.' People are no longer willing to take on the risk of the next 40 years for a small amount of interest.

When the foundation of what was once the most stable government bonds begins to shake, will it affect the assets we hold?

In the next article, we will continue to discuss.

Have you ever seen someone buy something without paying and then collect tariffs from others?
Trump swung the tariff stick directly at the EU to buy Greenland. As a result, he didn't manage to buy the island, but the friends in the crypto circle collectively gave Trump a 'contribution'.

In the past few days, the most common question I've heard is: gold has surged to a new high of 4600, how come BTC has dropped below 93,000? It was said to be digital gold, so why is it falling apart at a critical moment?

In terms of risk aversion, BTC has indeed not yet reached the old-school resilience of gold that is used to weathering storms. Facing a super hurricane that could overturn global trade tables, BTC currently behaves more like a highly leveraged tech stock. As soon as the wind stirs, everyone's first reaction is to run away.

But does this really mean BTC is not viable?

In the past 24 hours, 860 million dollars vanished into thin air! This is clearly Wall Street forcibly weaning the market! 500 million dollars of leveraged positions were liquidated within an hour. The big players took advantage of the negative news from tariffs to kick out those retail investors who chased highs, maximized leverage, and wished to get rich overnight. As a DCA player, I actually find this deleveraging process to be the healthiest reset in a bull market.

However, I discovered a critically important topic that no one is discussing: the open interest in Bitcoin options has for the first time surpassed that of futures!

The total open interest in options across the network has surged to 75 billion dollars, which is 14 billion more than futures.

> What does this represent? Futures are betting on size, and losing means getting your ladder pulled and liquidated;
> While options are more like buying insurance.

You can see on Deribit, just betting on breaking through the 100,000 dollar level has 2 billion dollars at stake. This indicates that the big players are hedging risks and more secretly and steadily laying out a target of 100,000 dollars. As a long-term holder, I still believe in the underlying logic of this sector.

Recently, there is also a voice in the market that believes Bitcoin will fall below the miners' cost price. So what exactly is the miners' cost price? Will this year completely turn bearish? Remember to follow, and we'll discuss it in our next article.

TSMC's financial report is crazy again, and tech stocks are collectively reviving! But everyone, don't just focus on whether chip prices are rising or falling; what truly determines the thickness of your wallet in 2026 is not the candlestick chart, but the financial statements just released by those 'top predators' on Wall Street today.

Why is the market rising while your account is shrinking?
TSMC's financial report is indeed a shot in the arm, directly bringing back the sluggish tech stocks. And have you noticed? As soon as Trump loosened his tone towards Iran, the previously soaring oil prices immediately cooled down.

But do you think the crisis is over? Look at what Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, those old foxes, are playing at? It's a classic case of good news being fully priced in. Last year, everyone was crazy about buying bank stocks, and now that the performance is so good, they are the first to pull out. This indicates that smart money is already looking for the next harvesting battlefield.

This brings us to today's protagonist: ETF.
In just 35 years, it has rubbed traditional mutual funds on the ground, and its scale has surged to 13.5 trillion USD. Why is it so dominant? Because it is efficient and has low taxes, like putting a group of great white sharks into a pond, specifically to eat those slow-reacting old funds. But here comes the problem: if ETFs are so good, why are the ETFs you bought making you doubt life?

Because many ETFs are designed to dig into your pockets:
Leverage traps: Those triple-leveraged short funds sound exciting, but the losses are astonishing. There's a reverse fund that lost 99.99% in 15 years! It's all about constantly merging shares to sustain life.
Dividend scams: Don't be dazzled by a 46% dividend rate. There’s a Tesla-covered call ETF that seems generous in dividends, but the total return hasn't even reached half of holding the underlying stock. This is like using your bone marrow to make soup for you, and you still think the soup is great!
Hotspot harvesting: As soon as you see flashy names like quantum computing or brain-computer interfaces, it's basically the sign that the market has peaked; they are just waiting for you to step in and take the bait.

BlackRock's asset scale has just broken 14 trillion! Larry Fink is very shrewd, laying off workers while aggressively investing in opaque private equity and alternative investments. What does this mean? It means that the top players are no longer playing with ordinary people. They are playing with deeper, more opaque markets, even those without candlestick charts.

If you want to turn things around in the cryptocurrency or US stock market in 2026, relying solely on hard work and reading news is useless. In this ecological niche, if you can't clearly see who the hunter is.

BTC Reclaims the $96,000 Mark! Why I Advise You Against Playing Altcoins

The market is currently oscillating around $95,000. Today, I'm not here to predict price movements. Instead, I want to show you something deeper. Have you noticed? In the past, when you bought altcoins—even if you got stuck in a loss—you could usually break even after waiting one or two months. But the market has changed now. I just reviewed a report indicating that 2025 is a turning point. Previously, altcoin rallies could last two months (around 45–60 days), but now their average lifespan has dropped to just 20 days.

So if you're still applying the 'hold and wait' mindset from two years ago when playing altcoins, you're not investing—you're becoming the final sucker catching the wave for whales who move in and out quickly.

Why are people no longer interested in altcoins?
Because of the massive liquidation event last October, which scared everyone senseless. Retail investors have learned their lesson. They've realized that when the hope for altcoins fades, capital is flooding back into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Data shows that global crypto market cap has surged by $300 billion since the start of this year. Where did this money come from? It's from people swapping their 'junk stocks' for 'blue-chip' assets.

The most critical 'nuclear-level' news is coming from the Federal Reserve and the Senate.
On January 27th, the U.S. will review the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act. This will transform the crypto space from a makeshift setup into a regulated, institutionalized system. Don't forget—Trump family members are deeply involved in crypto. That's a clear signal.

Right now, everyone is betting that Trump will sign the bill immediately upon taking office. With three years left in his term, the entire crypto market is fully leveraged, betting on the golden era of the next three years.

From president to prisoner, who would have thought that Nicolas Maduro, once in control of the world's largest oil reserves, is now sitting in a detention center in Brooklyn.

The longtime partner once seen by the Maduro regime as a lifeline—Tether—was the one who chose to stand alongside U.S. regulators at the critical moment.

The bolívar has experienced nearly 10,000,000% hyperinflation over the past decade. The money it takes to buy a bag of flour in the morning might only buy a cookie in the afternoon.

The turning point came between 2019 and 2020. As U.S. financial and oil sanctions against Venezuela intensified, the dollar settlement channels for Venezuela's state-owned oil company were severely cut off, and the traditional banking system essentially collapsed.

In this context, stablecoins began to be introduced into the energy trade chain, used to conduct partial oil transactions as a way to bypass sanctioned banking systems.

Among the general public, the popularity of USDT was even simpler and more brutal. Over the past decade, if you kept your savings in bolívars, you didn’t see interest—you saw your wealth continuously evaporating.

To survive, local residents started converting their money into USDT, which is pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar. People used USDT to pay rent, issue wages, buy daily necessities, and even pay for haircuts. In many areas, USDT had effectively become a "people's dollar."

To Wall Street, Tether has always been a high-risk tool for circumventing sanctions. But in Venezuela's struggle, it revealed an entirely different side.

The Maduro regime believed that by avoiding U.S. banks and bypassing SWIFT, they could escape American scrutiny. But they overlooked one key point: blockchain is a public ledger.

You can think of USDT as a traceable, freezeable digital dollar. Every transaction leaves a permanent on-chain footprint.

As a result, Tether began cooperating with U.S. and international law enforcement agencies to freeze wallet addresses involved in illegal transactions or sanctions evasion.

This wasn’t a safe haven—it was more like installing real-time surveillance for regulators.

Why did Tether suddenly become compliant?
Because it’s playing a much bigger game: it’s aiming to go legit. With the U.S. passing stablecoin legislation last year, Tether realized that if it didn’t issue a compliant token specifically for American users, it risked being completely marginalized by established rivals like Circle.

Can Teacher Cat release a skin like this?

8 trillion dollars! Who says Ethereum is done? That's just a shallow view!

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Ethereum quietly processed 8 trillion in transaction volume, equivalent to running nearly 10 times the annual GDP of Switzerland!

Why, with daily active addresses exceeding 10 million, transaction volume doubling compared to the second quarter, is the coin price still stagnant?

It can be said that Ethereum is currently in a rather awkward position, with on-chain data celebrating while holders curse the stagnant coin price. Today, we won't blow smoke or be overly critical; let's analyze this 'strange phenomenon.'

I call this the 'Infrastructure Paradox.' Ethereum is like prime real estate in Manhattan. A few years ago, not only were the land prices high, but there were also constant traffic jams, forcing everyone to play in the suburbs. But now, Ethereum has widened the roads and built taller buildings; it's not congested, and the fees have dropped significantly.

So why can't the 8 trillion in transaction volume save the coin price?
To put it simply, Ethereum is currently relying on low margins with high sales. Although the network efficiency has improved a hundredfold, the service fees it collects have decreased a thousandfold. This awkward situation of increasing volume without increasing revenue is the true reason behind the weak coin price.

So why are old money (institutions) still stubbornly sticking with Ethereum?
Because in the eyes of financial giants, 'consensus' is the most solid physical law. Even if other chains are faster, as long as they haven't undergone extreme stress testing worth hundreds of billions of dollars, institutions are hesitant to put their core assets on the line. Look at RWA (Real World Assets), where 65% of global assets are on-chain. Giants like BlackRock and Franklin... are not foolish; in the face of trillion-dollar funds, speed can only be a supplementary advantage.

In December, daily active addresses exceeded 10 million, with 2.23 million daily transactions.
Data does not lie; the infrastructure has been built right to our doorstep, and Ethereum's application explosion is just around the corner in the next couple of years. Personally, I believe that now is the time when 'price' and 'value' are most disconnected.

However, if you are still waiting for it to make you rich overnight, you might be in the wrong place. But if you are positioning for the financial clearing rights of the next decade, it remains the irreplaceable king.

On the first day of the New Year, the US dollar has splashed everyone with a bucket of cold water! It dropped a full 8% in 2025, setting an 8-year record. But this is just the beginning; next, we will face a more crazy suspense: Who is the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which will directly determine whether the money in your hands continues to shrink or rebounds!

Why is the dollar so weak?
In simple terms, this is a psychological battle of early resignation. The current dollar is like a large company that knows it will change leadership; everyone thinks Trump will arrange for a 'money printer' to succeed Powell. Everyone is betting that as soon as the new chairman takes office, there will be aggressive interest rate cuts. Coupled with Trump's tariff stick in April, the dollar has yet to recover.

Now, the focus is on these two men named 'Kevin.'
→ Hassett, Trump's confidant, is a typical 'rate cutter.' If he takes office, the dollar is likely to drop further, which is real monetary easing.
→ Warsh, who seems more like a centrist. The latest news is that Warsh's support rate is soaring. If it ends up being him, the dollar might rebound instead. It's like choosing a coach: do you choose an offensive maniac or a defensive master? The players (market) have completely different expectations now.

I want to remind everyone of a detail: everyone has been bearish on the dollar for 9 years. But what has been the result? In the past 9 years, the dollar has risen in 6 of those years! The consensus in the market is often lagging. When everyone thinks it will drop, it is often the beginning of a reversal.

The dollar's trend in January will be more unpredictable.

Is a weaker dollar good or bad for the crypto world?
Just remember one simple logic: the dollar is the 'pricing anchor' of global assets. If the dollar continues to 'shrink' due to a change in Federal Reserve leadership, then digital gold like Bitcoin becomes a natural safe haven. When people do not trust fiat currency, funds will flood into the crypto market like a deluge. But I hope you do not only focus on Bitcoin. If the next Federal Reserve chairman is a 'tech person,' besides cutting interest rates, their regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies will be the real bombshell benefit.

In 2026, the timing difference in the dollar's leadership change may be our biggest turnaround opportunity in the past two years.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year, let’s eat well in the first wave of big market movements together!

Today is December 26th, and over $27 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire.

It can be said that the crypto market is on high alert today, as the scale of options expiring on Deribit could be the most critical reset of the year, amounting to about $27 billion, which is more than half of their open contracts. The number of call options here is nearly three times that of put options, suggesting that the sentiment seems to be slightly bullish.

But here comes the key point: the market is not focused on how bullish or bearish it is, but rather on where the settlement will occur.

So where is the maximum pain point?
BTC is around 95,000, and ETH is around 3,000. What does this mean? If the price approaches these levels, the option sellers are most comfortable, while buyers are the most uncomfortable. Therefore, before and after expiration, institutional hedging, closing positions, and rolling over will significantly influence the price.

The most obvious phenomenon in the market now is that everyone is rolling over.
Many institutions are moving their positions to January contracts to reduce year-end risks, which is why you see short-term data fluctuating.

Will the outlook for January next year be bearish or bullish?
Although bearish sentiment accounts for about 30% of recent large trades, this does not mean that market sentiment has completely turned bearish. Institutions often use put options for hedging, locking in downside risks; as expiration approaches, they may also transfer remaining positions to willing buyers, creating a seemingly bearish data outlook, but essentially it is risk management.

Interestingly, volatility has actually decreased. The 30-day implied volatility DVOL for Bitcoin is currently around 42%, significantly lower than the 63% at the end of November, indicating that the market may not surge as everyone thinks, and the settlement may be more orderly. Because the real drama happens after expiration, how capital flows is more important than price.

Next, I will be watching two ranges: on the upside, bullish bets are concentrated between BTC 100,000 and 116,000; on the downside, the most popular bearish bet is still 85,000. Ethereum is similar, with a focus above 3,000.

How institutions handle these positions may determine how the first few weeks of 2026 will unfold.

Today marks the 14th day of “extreme fear,” and if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, risk assets may take another hit. There are even voices saying that if rates are not cut, BTC could go to 70,000.