Today, combining the recent market dynamics, policies, on-chain data, technical aspects, and trading signals within the group (low position 2970-2950 to establish long positions, targeting 3200-3400, exit at 29000), I will summarize the current trends and forecasts for Bitcoin in early January. Overall, BTC is in a low volatility squeeze phase, with both the fundamentals and sentiment building strength for the next upward movement, leaning towards a short-term oscillation upward, targeting the range of $95,000-$100,000.


1. Current price and short-term trend review


As of January 5, 2026, the Bitcoin price is stable in the range of $92,000-$93,000, rebounding approximately 8% from the late December low (around $85,000). The holiday effect has led to lower trading volumes, but prices have not seen a significant decline, indicating limited bearish strength.


The long-term strategy mentioned in the group—'buy between $2,970–$2,950 with target $3,200–$3,400'—aligns closely with the current price action: this can be interpreted as gradually building long positions below $92,000, with the first target at $93,200–$94,000 and an extended target at $96,000–$100,000. The short-term key resistance lies at $93,000–$93,500; once volume surges and breaks above, it could quickly attract FOMO capital.


2. Market Sentiment and View Distribution


Current market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautious to moderately optimistic:


• Bullish sentiment dominates: institutional analysts (e.g., Tom Lee from Fundstrat) continue to expect a surge to $125,000–$150,000 in Q1; implied volatility in the options market is rebounding, with notable premium in call options.


• Some views suggest 2026 will be a 'consolidation year', but January may see an initial rebound followed by a pullback, with short-term support at $86,000–$90,000.


• On X platform and community discussions, topics related to 'rebound' and 'accumulation' are significantly more popular than 'bear market', indicating that retail investors haven't yet returned in large numbers, but panic sentiment has clearly diminished.


3. Policy: Regulatory Clarity Continues to Improve


At the start of 2026, the U.S. crypto policy environment continues to improve:


• Bills such as the GENIUS Act and Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act are expected to enter substantive hearings and marking stages in January, and the gradual clarification of the regulatory framework will significantly boost institutional confidence.


• Although there is some divergence in expectations of Fed easing, the overall liquidity environment still supports risk assets.


• Globally, the EU’s MiCA framework is being implemented, and friendly policies in several Asian countries are advancing simultaneously. If the U.S. achieves a regulatory breakthrough first, it will attract more traditional capital.


Policy benefits will gradually materialize from January to March, providing structural support to prices.


4. On-chain Data: Accumulation signals are clear


On-chain indicators continue to send positive signals:


• Large wallets (1,000+ BTC addresses) have net accumulated over 250,000 BTC in the past month, and the proportion of whales depositing to exchanges has declined, indicating strong holding confidence.


• Long-term holders (HODLers) remain at historically high levels, while short-term speculative selling pressure has significantly decreased.


• Hash rate and network difficulty have both hit new all-time highs, with no significant mining reduction or selling behavior observed.


• Stablecoin total supply is growing steadily, with off-chain liquidity continuously flowing in rather than out.


These data indicate that despite price consolidation, the bottom is being steadily reinforced.


5. Technicals: Low Volatility Compression, Breakout Imminent


Current technical pattern features are obvious:


• Bollinger Bands are severely compressed, with volatility at its lowest level in nearly two years—historically, such compression is often followed by major market moves.


• Daily chart maintains an uptrend channel, with support at $90,000 and resistance at $93,500.


• RSI is in the neutral zone of 45–50, neither overbought nor oversold, and the MACD is forming a golden cross near the zero line.


• Key Levels:


• Support: $90,000 → $86,500 (ETF average cost line)


• Resistance: $93,500 → $96,000 → $100,000 (psychological level)


Once volume expands and breaks above $93,500, the next target could be $98,000–$100,000; if unexpectedly跌破 $90,000, be cautious of a pullback to $85,000–$86,000.


Trading Suggestions (for reference only)


• Lightly position and gradually build longs near $92,000–$93,000, with stop-loss placed below $89,500–$90,000.


• Partially exit at the first target of $93,500–$94,000, and hold the remainder to target $96,000–$98,000.


• Principle: Avoid chasing highs; add positions only after volume confirms a breakout. During downturns, stay calm and look for opportunities to average down at support levels.


Summary


Combining policy, on-chain, technical, and sentiment factors, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a range-bound uptrend in January 2026, with a core range of $90,000–$100,000. Short-term low volatility reflects accumulation rather than weakness—patience to hold or accumulate at lower levels is recommended. This is not investment advice; markets carry risks—always manage position size and risk control. DYOR.


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