$BTC #永恒牛市 Musk's 'Singularity' reminds me of Sihai's 'Bitcoin Singularity' and 'Eternal Bull Market' from N years ago
Musk predicted on January 4th: We are already in the 'technological singularity,' where AI and robotics are unstoppable. Musk's 'singularity' refers to artificial intelligence and robots, but the term 'singularity' immediately brings to mind Sihai's prediction about the 'Bitcoin singularity' around 2019 (probably). (At that time, his Weibo username was TumbleBit, and he still uses it on X.) Back then, I even discussed this topic with friends on a crypto radio show I hosted.
His main idea was this — when Bitcoin's annual inflation rate falls below that of the US dollar, the Bitcoin singularity will trigger, and an eternal bull market will begin.
The core of singularity theory lies in comparing inflation rates. Sihai believed that Bitcoin's halving mechanism would reduce its inflation rate. After the halving in May 2020, the inflation rate dropped to 1.8%, lower than the US inflation rate at the time (around 2.4%), marking the arrival of the singularity and the beginning of the eternal bull market. This theory is based on Hayek's monetary theory, suggesting that Bitcoin, as a deflationary asset, will eventually surpass fiat currencies in long-term value.
The characteristics of an eternal bull market are sustained upward trends and wealth redistribution. It's not short-term speculation, but a shift from 'short bull, long bear' to 'long bull, short bear.' After the singularity, Bitcoin's price shows a steady upward trend, with wealth shifting toward holders.
Sihai categorized wealth levels as follows:
C level (above 0.21 BTC),
B level (above 2.1 BTC),
A level (above 21 BTC),
S level (above 210 BTC),
S+ (2100 BTC or more), etc.
Among these, the A level ensures basic living standards, and after the singularity, the ranking becomes fixed, making it difficult for ordinary users to reach the B level threshold.
His original statements had a distinctly academic-style pyramid scheme tone (much more sophisticated than Bao Er Ye's shouting style), and naturally, this view has drawn criticism, such as 'No market only goes up and never down?' — these arguments are valid, of course. But given the current price, it's truly fortunate that Bitcoin has such a preacher. By the way, when he first proposed this idea, Bitcoin's price was roughly around $6,000.
