Tongjun · January 9 Market Commentary | Bitcoin Momentum Weakening, Gold Safe-Haven Rekindled
Snapshot (approx. 50 words)
Bitcoin has retraced from its年初 high, recently under pressure due to ongoing bull-bear battles and net outflows from ETFs; gold has seen a short-term rebound and stabilization, but overall safe-haven sentiment remains dominant, with capital shifting from high-risk assets to precious metals.
BTC Market Analysis
Technical analysis
Comparing the provided chart, BTC is currently oscillating within the $90,000–$95,000 range without stabilizing at higher levels, lacking sustained breakout momentum in the short term.
Most traders view **$90,000** as a key support level; a break below could widen downside potential; the $94,000–$95,000 zone represents a previous high resistance area.
Fundamental downside pressure
Latest data shows net outflows in the BTC market, with significant redemptions observed across major ETFs, reflecting short-term profit-taking.
Exchange liquidation and liquidation data indicate high sensitivity to clearer macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. employment report); such events often trigger short-term volatility.
Top analysts' outlook
Institutional and market models show significant divergence in short-term BTC forecasts: some believe that if the Fed turns dovish and capital returns to risk assets, BTC could retest the $100,000+ level;$100,000+ structure; others, using technical analysis, suggest that if price remains in a range-bound consolidation, a correction may extend to lower levels.
Clear trading recommendation (BTC)
1) Support strategy: If price breaks below the $90,000 psychological level and closes below it, consider short-term stop-loss or reduce positions; if it rebounds above this level, look for opportunities to build long positions.
2) Resistance strategy: If BTC sees increased volume and holds above the $94,000–$95,000 range, it indicates a shift in momentum, potentially opening the door to higher targets.
3) Stop-loss placement: Set key invalidation level below $88,000, and breakout confirmation level above $96,000.
Gold market analysis
Technical and funding conditions
Gold has been trading in a $4,400–$4,500 range recently; although it hasn't sustained a breakout above resistance in the short term, safe-haven demand remains dominant.
Fundamental driving force
Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a more dovish Fed jointly support gold as a safe-haven asset. (Bitget)
However, the latest employment data failed to significantly boost safe-haven buying, and gold saw a slight pullback after a high-level rebound, signaling profit-taking pressure.
Top institutional views
According to the latest Financial Times summary, analysts' consensus on gold for the year is medium-term bullish, though with notable disagreement on targets, ranging from $4,800 to $5,000, with some extreme bullish views projecting even higher.
Clear trading recommendation (Gold)
1) Support layout: If gold retraces to the $4,300–$4,350 support zone and shows signs of stabilization, consider entering long positions in batches.
2) Breakout confirmation: If volume expands and price breaks above $4,500 and holds, it indicates sustained safe-haven demand, allowing for holding positions with targets higher.
3) Stop-loss reminder: Set stop-loss below $4,250 to guard against false breakout risks.
Other asset summary
ETH / Altcoins: Trading within BTC's structural range, lacking independent trends, not recommended for major bets;
US Stocks: Recent volatility has increased, with unstable risk appetite; indices like S&P face pressure at higher levels;
Safe-haven sentiment: Gold remains the barometer; geopolitical instability will continue to support gold's allocation logic.
Comprehensive summary
Bitcoin and gold are currently in a 'battle state':
BTC remains in weak consolidation, with no confirmed bullish momentum;
Gold’s safe-haven core attribute has resumed, making short-term trends clearer.
Trading core strategy:
Bitcoin: Holding key support => accumulate at lower levels; breaking resistance => confirm trend;
Gold: Stabilization at support zone => go long; breaking resistance => add positions with the trend.
