Meme and altcoin markets are already dead; buying gold and silver randomly would outperform them.
This rise sounds a bit off; the data tells the whole story: the total market cap of meme coins in 2025 has shrunk significantly compared to last year, with collective value evaporating by over 65%, and their market share now barely above 1.3% of the entire market. This is a sharp drop from nearly 5% in 2024, indicating a massive loss of capital and attention.
Moreover, many communities have already openly declared meme markets 'dead'—CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that meme coins' share in the altcoin market has fallen to multi-year lows, far below the peak levels seen in 2024.
Remember the first time I felt genuine excitement about Bitcoin In fact, it has nothing to do with price. It was in that moment I suddenly realized: in the digital world, people can actually own assets without permission or scrutiny. What truly pulled me down the path was Dash. Not because it was particularly impressive, but because it brought the issue of 'privacy' to the forefront early on, without compromise or diplomacy.
You'll gradually realize that every debate about privacy eventually hits the same wall. On one side are regulators, the state, and systems, all wanting everything to be traceable, auditable, and reversible;
Recently opening BSC, I can hardly recognize this chain. Rankings are full of "#我踏马来了 ", "#恶俗企鹅 ", "#哈基米 ", "#BigOpening", "#MyOldMan". These names look like a menu from a joke factory, not a blockchain at all. To be honest, I haven't touched memes for a long time. It's not that I lack humor, but this kind of 'digital water-splashing festival' style of play has completely lost imagination. In Web2, it's about information streams and emotions; In Web3, there's nothing left but garbage tokens and boring jokes. The entire market feels like self-amusement, the louder it gets, the emptier it becomes.
Recently opening BSC, I can hardly recognize this chain. Rankings are full of "#我踏马来了 ", "#恶俗企鹅 ", "#哈基米 ", "#BigOpening", "#MyOldMan". These names look like a menu from a joke factory, not a blockchain at all. To be honest, I haven't touched memes for a long time. It's not that I lack humor, but this kind of 'digital water-splashing festival' style of play has completely lost imagination. In Web2, it's about information streams and emotions; In Web3, there's nothing left but garbage tokens and boring jokes. The entire market feels like self-amusement, the louder it gets, the emptier it becomes.
Saying Twitter does trading? I saw a scary ghost...
Fantasizing that X will become a CEX, a wallet, a financial gateway—social plus finance, traffic directly turning into assets, Musk stepping in to rebuild the crypto world. Damn, X still hasn't even nailed a stable and reliable chat system. Direct messages often fail to connect, and the app keeps spinning in circles when opening—this is 2026, not 2013.
Then you tell me that a product that can't even maintain basic stability is supposed to handle asset custody, wallet security, trade matching, and clearing? That's serious delusion. Many people's discussions start from the wrong premise—not whether the product is fit for finance, but because it has massive traffic, they assume it can automatically do finance. But finance isn't content distribution. CEXs compete on uptime, risk control, order depth, and system resilience during extreme market conditions. You might dislike Binance or Coinbase, but at least they know what to prioritize when markets go wild.
X, on the other hand, feels completely opposite—today it changes the chat, tomorrow the subscription, the day after the timeline. Every update brings the death of entire features. This is classic social product culture: fast, frequent, experimental, broken is okay. But financial systems have one non-negotiable rule: they can't break. Rules keep changing, APIs keep shifting, features get cut on a whim. Talking about long-term asset custody in such an environment is absurd.
Bottom line: the problem isn't that X hasn't done finance yet—it's that it hasn't even mastered the fundamentals of social consistency. Stop projecting fantasies of crypto infrastructure onto it. Right now, its top priority should be cleaning up the mess it already has.
Who would trust a system that can freeze even direct messages with money? #CEX #cryptouniverseofficial
I just want to ask everyone, is there much difference between me placing this order and placing a guess on Polymarket whether it will go up or down? #合约交易
Why I Started Taking Walrus Seriously, Rather Than Just Looking at Its Price
To be honest, there are too many new projects on the market right now, and most of them I just glance at and move on. Walrus (@walrusprotocol) is one of the few projects that has made me willing to spend extra time exploring it—not because of a particularly novel narrative, but because it tackles problems that are truly 'fundamental' and practical. The biggest issue with current on-chain applications isn't the lack of users, but rather that much of the data simply isn't suitable for direct on-chain storage. First, the cost is high; second, efficiency is low; third, verification is troublesome. As a result, people either use centralized storage as a workaround, or simply accept the split between on-chain and off-chain. The outcome? We talk about Web3, but the actual experience is still Web2.
With the influx of new users into the prediction market Polymarket, I see not competition, but abundant 'liquidity donations'. Most people's approach is a textbook example of mental laziness: glancing at the trending list, fixating on high odds, blindly following so-called smart money, and ultimately getting crushed by black swans. This isn't investing—it's giving money away. In prediction markets, diligence is the greatest Alpha. Just by taking one extra step in logic, you'll find financial products with astonishing annualized returns everywhere.
Gamblers who only read headlines vs. the house who reads the rules Many lose because they bet only on news headlines, while Poly settles based on legal texts.
Take Venezuela as an example: the public shakes their heads at the 4% odds for 'Invasion', but overlook 'US forces enter again'. The lazy logic is simple: no war means no opportunity. But the diligent use AI to scan the rules: Trump's claim of taking over oil implies the physical presence of engineering and security forces. This fits the definition of 'Enter', but may not qualify as 'Invasion'. The odds gap between these two terms is a definition arbitrage opportunity—profitable without war.
Reject linear thinking, fully exploit interconnected benefits Lazy thinking is linear, fixated solely on whether Khamenei will fall. Expert thinking is networked: if deep analysis confirms the Iranian regime's stability, then is the logic supporting a surge in safe-haven assets still valid?
If Khamenei stays in power, why would silver rise 20% in three weeks? Shorting Khamenei while also shorting silver is essentially leveraging geographical perception for free. Risk is logically hedged, and returns become steady, like a reliable financial product.
Polymarket is not a casino—it's a tool for monetizing insight. @Polymarket #预测市场
CZ says the encrypted super cycle is coming, Tom Lee says ETH will reach 250,000, Cathie Wood's thematic bet: Trump will get the national reserve to buy BTC, Saylor keeps repeating: Bitcoin is the only answer.
The problem is market liquidity has dropped to its lowest level since 2022,
BTC and other assets have lost over $1 trillion in market value within a year, and Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30% from $126,000. This isn't a super cycle, it's a super rhetoric cycle.
Closed-loop boasting costs nothing, and not doing it could mean death. #币安上线币安人生
CZ says the encrypted super cycle is coming, Tom Lee says ETH will reach 250,000, Cathie Wood's thematic bet: Trump will get the national reserve to buy BTC, Saylor keeps repeating: Bitcoin is the only answer.
The problem is market liquidity has dropped to its lowest level since 2022,
BTC and other assets have lost over $1 trillion in market value within a year, and Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30% from $126,000. This isn't a super cycle, it's a super rhetoric cycle.
Closed-loop boasting costs nothing, and not doing it could mean death. #币安上线币安人生
January 9: Bitcoin Momentum Weakening, Gold Safe-Haven Rekindled
Tongjun · January 9 Market Commentary | Bitcoin Momentum Weakening, Gold Safe-Haven Rekindled Snapshot (approx. 50 words) Bitcoin has retraced from its年初 high, recently under pressure due to ongoing bull-bear battles and net outflows from ETFs; gold has seen a short-term rebound and stabilization, but overall safe-haven sentiment remains dominant, with capital shifting from high-risk assets to precious metals. BTC Market Analysis Technical analysis Comparing the provided chart, BTC is currently oscillating within the $90,000–$95,000 range without stabilizing at higher levels, lacking sustained breakout momentum in the short term. Most traders view **$90,000** as a key support level; a break below could widen downside potential; the $94,000–$95,000 zone represents a previous high resistance area.
The Price of Arrogance: The 'Cognitive Downgrade' Harvesting Game on Polymarket In prediction markets, there's a kind of profit I call the 'Western Arrogance Tax'. Watching the odds of Khamenei's ouster on Polymarket surge past 30%, I saw not risk, but a perfect cognitive arbitrage opportunity. As a former foreign exchange analyst, setting aside all ideology and viewing geopolitics purely through its physical structure, I saw these Western traders once again fantasizing about Tehran based on Hollywood scripts.
Hollywood-Style Linear Illusion The fatal flaw of Western capital lies in 'linear logic': the belief that dictators are isolated and fragile, and that rumors alone can bring down a regime. This emotional betting reveals their ignorance of the non-Western world—they're accustomed to fragile systems built on layered hearings and fail to understand the survival instinct behind 'strongman politics'.
Cold Observation Beyond Bias To profit from this, one must strip away personal bias and become a cold, mechanical observer. When I look at Iran, I don't see Khamenei alone, but the IRGC—a deeply entrenched network of interests. For such a deep-state system, stability is the supreme principle. The real crisis isn't noise on Twitter, but military movements. In the absence of physical signs of power transition, silence is not collapse—it's survival.
Cognitive Gap Is Alpha The strategy is simple: short Western illusions. While they bet based on 'ought to be' (how the world should be), we take the other side based on 'is' (how the world actually is). Breaking free from a single perspective, respecting survival logic you may dislike but objectively existent—this is the ticket to making money.
On the gaming table, the opponent's arrogant misjudgment is the greatest gift to the清醒.
Hyperliquid's revenue has plummeted! • Early Q3/Q4: Monthly average revenue steadily stood above $100M+, that was its peak. • December data: Cut directly in half to ~$55M. It’s not that there is no money in the market, but that the competitors are too ruthless. Under the siphoning of points from Aster and Lighter, HL's real fee rate moat finally fell in December. When the revenue of a monopoly-level DEX shrinks by 50% in 30 days #Hyperliquid #crypto
Why AI Trading is Not as Good as Sports Betting: A Brief but Real Window Period
Today is an era where everyone can use top-tier intelligence for free, but not every field can benefit from it. AI in trading, especially in high liquidity contract markets, is almost ineffective; however, in sports betting, there are still tangible profit windows. Let's talk about trading first. The cryptocurrency, futures, and forex derivative markets have extremely high liquidity, with participants highly specialized and market information being extremely transparent. Large funds, institutions, and HFT strategies have already squeezed out all 'predictability.' Any signals formed from publicly available data are almost immediately arbitraged, digested, and smoothed out. The so-called K-line predictions and price training simply overfit on noise.
Stop talking about the so-called 'trio prediction market'
Just because it is invested by Binance and labeled as a prediction market does not mean it has potential. Whether it can go far depends on one thing: can you do sports betting well?
The reason is simple. In the entire BC and prediction market, sports account for more than 50% of real trading volume in the long term, approaching 60%–70% in mature markets. High frequency, clear results, and real liquidity happen every day. Any systemic issues, experiential shortcomings, or pricing distortions will be infinitely magnified in sports, and cannot be hidden at all.
Sports also require the least narrative and rely the most on actual ability. If you can't even get the sports experience right, then talking about politics, macro, or event predictions is simply avoiding the tough questions. These markets have low frequency, slow settlement, and ample narrative space, making them more suitable for storytelling, but ironically, they have lower requirements for platform foundational capabilities.
And today’s crypto world has long moved past relying on narratives. Narratives have been overdrawn, resulting in the current situation. The market has begun to filter projects using the most practical questions: Is it usable? Can it retain users? Can it survive in the most challenging scenarios?
Many so-called trio companies are discussing concepts, paradigms, and investment backgrounds, but they avoid one core question: if you were thrown directly into this mature sports betting market, what would make you retain users? The odds? Liquidity? Price?
The real dividing line is not in the story, but in the structure and experience: Is placing orders smooth? Is settlement stable? Will long-term winners be systematically excluded? Traditional BC companies have mature experiences but do not welcome winners; the real opportunity in the prediction market is stuck right here.
In the most realistic and least sentiment-driven market like sports, the trio is just a pleasant term, still far from the answer.
Reflections after playing prediction market basketball for 100 games (win rate 60%+)
Who can still stand after 1000 games? In sports betting, short-term profits rely on luck, while long-term survival relies on mathematical sovereignty. When the sample size reaches 1000 games, the variance will be smoothed out, leaving only the systematic game between you and the bookmaker. This is not predicting the match but a brutal audit of whether you truly have an edge. Under standard -110 (1.91) odds, every percentage point of winning rate determines your level: 52.4% is the breakeven line; below it, you are essentially contributing to the bookmaker's stable revenue; 55% is the golden profit line, the range that top global professional syndicates pursue long-term, and stabilizing at 55%-57% is already at the pinnacle; 60% is almost nonexistent under a large sample of 1000 games; reaching this number usually indicates structural loopholes, or you are the one pricing.
An uneasy weekend morning, the Nuggets were originally the most favored, but ended up disappointing, losing 50% and leaving early. Later, the Suns turned the tide, winning half the game today. I see many brothers in the group deeply obsessed, staying up to watch the game, in a state of addiction, and I feel very worried. The spinach industry is a field with a thousand-year history where most casual players will inevitably lose; if you get dopamine stimulation from small bets, it's still worth it, but I see some friends going all in trying to analyze the game to win money from the bookmakers, which I strongly oppose. Whether you are on polymarket or b365, no matter what address you analyze, smart money follows, and in the long run, you will inevitably lose. If you really want to play poly to make money, focus on cognitive propositions; betting on football is a guaranteed loss. So, all you brothers in the crypto circle, remember the old saying: small bets bring joy, large bets harm the body. If you want to make money, just earn the juice money, be a stacking player, and don't get too carried away. Wishing everyone lasting success! #Polymarket #通骏币圈每日速读