The 4-year cycle and inventory flow model are not the same.

The 4-year cycle indicates that the second year after the halving is a bull market, but 2013, 2017, 2021🟩🟥🟩🟩, and 2025 clearly do not fit this pattern.

However, the S2F model does not mention bull or bear markets, nor does it mention tops or bottoms. The core argument of S2F is that scarcity drives value; Bitcoin (eventually) should be more valuable than gold because Bitcoin is scarcer than gold. The S2F model simulates a nonlinear phase transition path for Bitcoin's price toward over $30 trillion. The S2F model roughly simulates the average price during a four-year cycle (regardless of whether a year is a bull or bear market). The average price for the current cycle is $90,000, significantly higher than the $34,000 from the previous cycle, and in my view, Bitcoin's price will still trend towards the range of $250,000 to $1 million predicted by the S2F model (with two years remaining). I still firmly believe this.