沐东辰 -Crypto
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#龙头战法 全线下跌、龙头一直涨$DUSK
1
CZ
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Good summary
The 4-year cycle and inventory flow model are not the same.
The 4-year cycle indicates that the second year after the halving is a bull market, but 2013, 2017, 2021🟩🟥🟩🟩, and 2025 clearly do not fit this pattern.
However, the S2F model does not mention bull or bear markets, nor does it mention tops or bottoms. The core argument of S2F is that scarcity drives value; Bitcoin (eventually) should be more valuable than gold because Bitcoin is scarcer than gold. The S2F model simulates a nonlinear phase transition path for Bitcoin's price toward over $30 trillion. The S2F model roughly simulates the average price during a four-year cycle (regardless of whether a year is a bull or bear market). The average price for the current cycle is $90,000, significantly higher than the $34,000 from the previous cycle, and in my view, Bitcoin's price will still trend towards the range of $250,000 to $1 million predicted by the S2F model (with two years remaining). I still firmly believe this.
The 4-year cycle indicates that the second year after the halving is a bull market, but 2013, 2017, 2021🟩🟥🟩🟩, and 2025 clearly do not fit this pattern.
However, the S2F model does not mention bull or bear markets, nor does it mention tops or bottoms. The core argument of S2F is that scarcity drives value; Bitcoin (eventually) should be more valuable than gold because Bitcoin is scarcer than gold. The S2F model simulates a nonlinear phase transition path for Bitcoin's price toward over $30 trillion. The S2F model roughly simulates the average price during a four-year cycle (regardless of whether a year is a bull or bear market). The average price for the current cycle is $90,000, significantly higher than the $34,000 from the previous cycle, and in my view, Bitcoin's price will still trend towards the range of $250,000 to $1 million predicted by the S2F model (with two years remaining). I still firmly believe this.
#ETH
Keep a close eye on it, ETH is rebounding but has not reversed yet, no strong signal for a reversal, continue waiting!
Keep a close eye on it, ETH is rebounding but has not reversed yet, no strong signal for a reversal, continue waiting!
Please bring
After clearing out in August, I left 700,000 RMB and initially planned to short ETH with low leverage later. However, on October 10th, there was a massive crash, a rare black swan event. I bet big on ICP, FIL, and UNI at the low points, and so far, I've seen a 6-fold increase in spot prices. Several times, I made particularly accurate trades. I’m no longer confident in the market outlook and can only make quick entries and exits. A realistic friend of mine lost 60,000 RMB playing futures a while ago, but has been following my rhythm recently and made several hundred thousand. The altcoin market has been decent lately, with rotations, and I plan to do a few more swing trades before clearing out. I won’t think about the big picture anymore. I've been trading coins since 2015 and have gone bankrupt and back to zero many times. I no longer dare to play with contracts, as the market outlook isn’t very promising. I’ll just cherish this time well.
Required
Do you want to participate in the ICP ecosystem? Do you need me to introduce some ecosystem projects to you?
Fire Cloud Evil God
This is the founder of $ZEC , no wonder it crashed hard, losing money! A gift for the brothers who are losing money as a wife, haha, the insider brother has fallen, fallen under the skirt of the ZEC founder, haha
Even if you can never find me again, I wish you: Good morning🌠, Good afternoon🌞, Good evening❤️.
Even if you can never find me again, I wish you: Good morning🌠, Good afternoon🌞, Good evening❤️.
boom
GK-ARONNO
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Bullish#ZEN is getting ready for massive breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern formation in LTFs, Strong flip off and close above the trendline might trigger bulish rally towards 70-100% zones. Keep an eye on!!
$ZEN #ZENUSDT
{spot}(ZENUSDT)
$ZEN #ZENUSDT
{spot}(ZENUSDT)
Good obedient treasure
$ICP Almost there, most of this project is in Shenzhen
Sent on the 4th, 8 dollars nearly doubled
Husbands who are long can sell now😘
{future}(ICPUSDT)
Sent on the 4th, 8 dollars nearly doubled
Husbands who are long can sell now😘
{future}(ICPUSDT)
Is the counterfeit spring here?
Three Consecutive Days of Grand Slam
2800
GK-ARONNO
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ICPUSDT - many positive indicators!👇
$ICP
{future}(ICPUSDT)
The coin ICP has pumped nearly 160% in just one week, and believe it or not — all that move happened without even breaking out of the accumulation range it’s been forming for over 275 days.
So imagine what will happen once it finally breaks out!
The high volume and bullish indicators on the chart suggest that this coin’s minimum target is around $30, meaning roughly a 5x potential from the current level.
It has already broken above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, broken the main trendline (marked in blue), and even formed a Golden Cross pattern.
It’s still inside the accumulation zone for now, so this is your early entry opportunity — because once it breaks out, you won’t catch it again.
Mark my words.
{future}(ICPUSDT)
The coin ICP has pumped nearly 160% in just one week, and believe it or not — all that move happened without even breaking out of the accumulation range it’s been forming for over 275 days.
So imagine what will happen once it finally breaks out!
The high volume and bullish indicators on the chart suggest that this coin’s minimum target is around $30, meaning roughly a 5x potential from the current level.
It has already broken above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, broken the main trendline (marked in blue), and even formed a Golden Cross pattern.
It’s still inside the accumulation zone for now, so this is your early entry opportunity — because once it breaks out, you won’t catch it again.
Mark my words.
This is the big zero coin
Created a Monero (XMR) wallet on ICP
1
PhyrexNi
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If a recession leads to a significant drop, how would I bottom fish?
Today I happened to chat with a friend about this issue, and I will share my personal views, which are just personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the truth. The data used are all from economic recession data after the year 2000.
1. Use S&P 500 as a reference
Recessions often bring declines in risk markets, and the S&P is generally a good reference:
A. In the recession caused by the tech bubble burst in 2001, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -49%, with an average drop of -22%.
B. In the recession caused by the financial crisis in 2008, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -57%, with an average drop of -38%.
C. In the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -34%, with an average drop of -28%.
So if this time is a recession, then my first bottom fishing point should be after the S&P drops by 20%. Based on the current price of the S&P 500, this would mean starting to bottom fish Bitcoin when it falls below 4,000 points (or 4,400 points).
2. Use VIX as a reference
VIX is equivalent to the panic index for U.S. stocks and is also very useful data. I have mentioned it many times before; generally speaking, a VIX of 30 can be viewed as a pullback, exceeding 50 basically indicates a recession path, and over 80 signifies the peak of a recession. It can be seen that the peaks in 2008 and 2020 both exceeded 80.
So my idea is to start bottom fishing when VIX exceeds 70 (taking the middle value) and continue to buy Bitcoin.
3. Use URPD as a reference
I won't say much about the URPD data as it is monitored daily, and the support for URPD has been validated again in the past two months, including the previously mentioned $BTC 70,000 bottom support which is also valid. Additionally, I do not rule out the possibility of a spike dropping below $70,000, but the range between $70,000 and $80,000 is very likely to be a regular interval during a recession.
So my thought is to start bottom fishing Bitcoin when it drops below $75,000. However, because I am not sure if it will reach this position, I have used the S&P 500 and VIX as references; essentially, whichever of these three arrives first, I will start buying, always averaging down as the price drops.
4. Use Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL as a reference
This data has been used recently when discussing $ETH, and it is even more applicable to $BTC, and it has never been wrong. The reason I placed this data last is that I am not sure if even in a recession Bitcoin can be pushed into the red zone. If it can truly enter, this indicator will be my main bottom fishing indicator.
Begin buying when it enters the red zone, buying more as it drops.
Apart from the fourth type of Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, I cannot be certain that bottom fishing is always the right position, and even with the Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, it does not guarantee hitting the lowest point. Therefore, if a recession occurs that causes Bitcoin to fall, bottom fishing should also be gradual. These are still just data standards and must be assessed in the context of macro events.
This is just a personal opinion and should not be taken as legal advice.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Today I happened to chat with a friend about this issue, and I will share my personal views, which are just personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the truth. The data used are all from economic recession data after the year 2000.
1. Use S&P 500 as a reference
Recessions often bring declines in risk markets, and the S&P is generally a good reference:
A. In the recession caused by the tech bubble burst in 2001, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -49%, with an average drop of -22%.
B. In the recession caused by the financial crisis in 2008, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -57%, with an average drop of -38%.
C. In the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the maximum drop of the S&P 500 was -34%, with an average drop of -28%.
So if this time is a recession, then my first bottom fishing point should be after the S&P drops by 20%. Based on the current price of the S&P 500, this would mean starting to bottom fish Bitcoin when it falls below 4,000 points (or 4,400 points).
2. Use VIX as a reference
VIX is equivalent to the panic index for U.S. stocks and is also very useful data. I have mentioned it many times before; generally speaking, a VIX of 30 can be viewed as a pullback, exceeding 50 basically indicates a recession path, and over 80 signifies the peak of a recession. It can be seen that the peaks in 2008 and 2020 both exceeded 80.
So my idea is to start bottom fishing when VIX exceeds 70 (taking the middle value) and continue to buy Bitcoin.
3. Use URPD as a reference
I won't say much about the URPD data as it is monitored daily, and the support for URPD has been validated again in the past two months, including the previously mentioned $BTC 70,000 bottom support which is also valid. Additionally, I do not rule out the possibility of a spike dropping below $70,000, but the range between $70,000 and $80,000 is very likely to be a regular interval during a recession.
So my thought is to start bottom fishing Bitcoin when it drops below $75,000. However, because I am not sure if it will reach this position, I have used the S&P 500 and VIX as references; essentially, whichever of these three arrives first, I will start buying, always averaging down as the price drops.
4. Use Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL as a reference
This data has been used recently when discussing $ETH, and it is even more applicable to $BTC, and it has never been wrong. The reason I placed this data last is that I am not sure if even in a recession Bitcoin can be pushed into the red zone. If it can truly enter, this indicator will be my main bottom fishing indicator.
Begin buying when it enters the red zone, buying more as it drops.
Apart from the fourth type of Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, I cannot be certain that bottom fishing is always the right position, and even with the Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, it does not guarantee hitting the lowest point. Therefore, if a recession occurs that causes Bitcoin to fall, bottom fishing should also be gradual. These are still just data standards and must be assessed in the context of macro events.
This is just a personal opinion and should not be taken as legal advice.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
How to play I Charge 1000
The first AI agent project of the $ICP ecosystem, Alice, is about to launch SNS (public offering), developed by on-chain mining developer BOB. I personally have a good outlook on it and plan to invest around 2000 ICP.
How to do it
The on-chain mining game of $ICP is about to launch, and I wonder how many times we can earn this time!
Need
Do you need a tutorial? I can provide one if needed.
Followed
杀破狼 WolfyXBT
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BullishI am fully armed! Ready to welcome the Altcoin Season!
My main position is in $ETH. For the past few months, I have been accumulating $ETH spot, and the average price is not very low, around 2800. During this decline, I chose to take some $ETH spot out to long with 3x leverage, keeping the liquidation price below 2000 to prevent extreme market conditions from liquidating me.
I have also basically bought all the altcoins I wanted to buy. Everyone has been asking me what I bought, and I don't mind sharing, but this is not investment advice, and I am not a trading expert, so just consider it as a reference:
$ENA $EIGEN $CRV $AAVE $ONDO $USUAL $BANANA $FUEL $PUFFER
I won't disclose some other meme coins; they are just small holdings.
My main position is in $ETH. For the past few months, I have been accumulating $ETH spot, and the average price is not very low, around 2800. During this decline, I chose to take some $ETH spot out to long with 3x leverage, keeping the liquidation price below 2000 to prevent extreme market conditions from liquidating me.
I have also basically bought all the altcoins I wanted to buy. Everyone has been asking me what I bought, and I don't mind sharing, but this is not investment advice, and I am not a trading expert, so just consider it as a reference:
$ENA $EIGEN $CRV $AAVE $ONDO $USUAL $BANANA $FUEL $PUFFER
I won't disclose some other meme coins; they are just small holdings.
He is the one who needs to repay more coins for the loan, haha
$ZEN Now the square is full of mindless people, they don't even know what the gray scale is for, really it's all just stupid stuff
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