This chart from Apollo’s Torsten Slok illustrates the steady climb in US growth expectations. Despite these increases, the current consensus remains low relative to my own probability-weighted forecast.

Having said that, and as I detailed in a recent column, the forward-looking distribution of outcomes for 2026 is multimodal, characterized by significant "fat tails" on both sides. This dispersion makes high-conviction forecasting a challenge without timely steps to mitigate downside risks.

Put another way, the potential for robust US growth is promising, provided:

* Private initiatives continue to unleash productivity;

* Policy missteps are avoided;

* Elevated financial valuations are validated by real-world economic developments; and

* The US avoids an excessive decoupling of growth from employment.

#economy #growth #markets