Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster
Rene M Kern Prof of Prac at Wharton. Allianz Advisor. Gramercy Chair. Chair of UnderArmour Board. Former Pimco CEO/co-CIO and President of Queens' Col Cambridge
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Comparing Gold against Bitcoin
Thanks to the latest dynamics in the marketplace, Gold has taken the lead over Bitcoin when measured across a five-year horizon. As illustrated in the chart below from John Authers, this shift is quite clear. The trend of superior returns is unfolding throughout the current year and is even visible in today's trading action. According to CNBC charts, we are seeing a bounce in gold prices, whereas Bitcoin remains in a stagnant position.
#markets #gold #bitcoin @johnauthers @CNBC
Thanks to the latest dynamics in the marketplace, Gold has taken the lead over Bitcoin when measured across a five-year horizon. As illustrated in the chart below from John Authers, this shift is quite clear. The trend of superior returns is unfolding throughout the current year and is even visible in today's trading action. According to CNBC charts, we are seeing a bounce in gold prices, whereas Bitcoin remains in a stagnant position.
#markets #gold #bitcoin @johnauthers @CNBC
The decision by Australia's central bank to implement a 25-basis-point hike today serves as a clear indicator of a trend likely to dominate the current year. We are witnessing a departure from the synchronized movements observed in recent years; instead, central banks in advanced economies are entering a phase characterized by significant policy divergence. This shift highlights a broader narrative involving growing dispersion within and among various economies. Along with fragmentation and volatility, this represents one of the three primary themes I anticipate unfolding throughout the year.
#economy #markets #centralbanks #australia
#economy #markets #centralbanks #australia
We are witnessing significant instability in the precious metals sector, as highlighted by a recent graph from the Financial Times. It appears that speculative traders have taken control of the market narrative, effectively pushing institutional investors to the sidelines for the moment. Current trading figures show a 5% loss for gold and a more severe 10% decline in silver values.
It is clear that while fundamental elements drove the initial impressive price surges for these commodities, those gains attracted a heavy influx of speculative interest. Consequently, the major uncertainty now revolves around the duration of this correction and the extent of the potential fallout. In the energy sector, oil has also retreated, with Brent dropping 5% in response to a minor relaxation in the typically high-stress relationship between the US and Iran.
#economy #markets #oil #gold #silver @FT
It is clear that while fundamental elements drove the initial impressive price surges for these commodities, those gains attracted a heavy influx of speculative interest. Consequently, the major uncertainty now revolves around the duration of this correction and the extent of the potential fallout. In the energy sector, oil has also retreated, with Brent dropping 5% in response to a minor relaxation in the typically high-stress relationship between the US and Iran.
#economy #markets #oil #gold #silver @FT
We have listed the links below for our weekly overview of global markets and the economy. Moving into February, we have witnessed a period defined by elevated volatility and a sense of uncertainty. The upcoming week is poised to be significant, highlighting geopolitical dangers and a widening gap in central bank strategies. Additionally, there is a substantial amount of data to review alongside a noteworthy calendar of corporate earnings.
https://t.co/PbVoU7wqrr
https://t.co/hCvKlJwDZK
#economy #markets
https://t.co/PbVoU7wqrr
https://t.co/hCvKlJwDZK
#economy #markets
Drawing on statistics from the Budget Lab at Yale, this illustration provided by Torsten Slok maps out the trajectory of the average effective tariff in the United States. It emphasizes the steep increase recorded in April just after the Liberation Day announcement. Following that surge, the situation has transitioned into a somewhat precarious stability, with the rate leveling off at roughly half of that earlier peak.
#economy #markets #trade #tariffs
#economy #markets #trade #tariffs
Here is the customary monthly overview of performance for major assets and asset classes. The majority of these sectors posted healthy returns, though Bitcoin remained a clear outlier to this positive trend. Led by gold and oil, a market rally boosted stocks in all monitored jurisdictions, despite considerable dispersion across the individual markets. One factor the table omits is the increasing volatility, which grew stronger as the month advanced.
#markets #economy #stocks #investors #investing #gold #oil #bitcoin
#markets #economy #stocks #investors #investing #gold #oil #bitcoin
I hope your day is off to a great start. I wanted to share my recent dialogue with Sam Sutton from Politico concerning Kevin Warsh, who has been nominated for Chair of the Federal Reserve. You can access the interview at the following link.
https://politi.co/4teFTjy
#economy #markets #federalreserve @samjsutton @politico
https://politi.co/4teFTjy
#economy #markets #federalreserve @samjsutton @politico
The latest United States inflation data derived from the Producer Price Index has arrived much stronger than anticipated. While the consensus forecast stood at 0.2%, the actual monthly PPI for December rose to 0.5%. The Core PPI figures were particularly surprising, posting a 0.7% monthly increase. This uptick pushed the annual core measurement to 3.3%, a level distinctly higher than the predicted 2.9%.
#Economy #Inflation #Markets #FederalReserve
#Economy #Inflation #Markets #FederalReserve
It is wonderful to see President Donald Trump nominate Kevin Warsh to take the helm as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Leading the world’s most powerful central bank is a significant responsibility, and I offer him my sincere congratulations. Our paths have crossed in various professional capacities, including his former time as a Fed Governor, within the academic world, and as colleagues in the Group of Thirty (G-30). From these interactions, it is clear to me that he is equipped with articulate communication skills, vast experience, and specialized knowledge. He has shown a distinct dedication to modernizing and reforming the Fed. This focus promises to secure the political independence of the institution and improve the overall effectiveness of its policies.
#economy #markets #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #fedchair
#economy #markets #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #fedchair
Profits are being taken off the table this morning, triggering a notable drop in the value of both gold and silver. This wave of selling by speculators is a key feature of today's market activity. Please consult the CNBC charts displayed below, which track the last month, for more details.
#markets #gold #silver #investors #investing
#markets #gold #silver #investors #investing
Prediction data from Polymarket, illustrated below, indicates that Kevin Warsh is now the clear frontrunner in the betting pools. This decisive shift in the odds occurs just as President Trump prepares to reveal his selection for Fed Chair, an announcement expected to take place in a matter of hours.
#economy #markets #federalreserve #FedChair
#economy #markets #federalreserve #FedChair
Are we witnessing a transition from the concepts of Hawks and Doves to a division of Red and Blue? Highlighting this current trend, a chart from the Wall Street Journal organizes the Federal Reserve Board based on their political nominations. This approach steps away from the traditional method of identifying members by their professional expertise, past experience, or their specific hawkish or dovish leanings.
#economy #FederalReserve #markets @WSJ
#economy #FederalReserve #markets @WSJ
Regarding other significant market activity observed earlier today, the price of Brent crude oil has climbed back to the $70-a-barrel level. This resurgence is largely a reaction to the escalating tensions involving the US and Iran.
#oil #economy #markets
#oil #economy #markets
Distinct movements in supply and demand are currently shaping the employment landscape in the United States. With this context in mind, a graph shared by John Authers provides valuable perspective, especially when viewed alongside the recent news of personnel cuts at organizations such as Pinterest, UPS, and Amazon.
#economy #markets #jobs @johnauthers
#economy #markets #jobs @johnauthers
The impressive price surge for gold, silver, and copper is continuing right through the Asian trading window. At the same time, the dollar is dipping, which is pushing key currency pairs to test important technical boundaries.
#markets #economy #gold #silver #fx #dollar
#markets #economy #gold #silver #fx #dollar
Advanced economies are witnessing a significant shift in monetary policy trends during 2026. Following a five-year period where central banks acted largely in unison—raising and lowering rates together—their paths are now beginning to diverge. Current market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve is preparing to reduce rates, whereas the ECB appears satisfied with maintaining its current standing. In contrast, the outlook for Australia suggests a different direction. With trimmed-mean inflation rising to 3.3%, a figure exceeding initial forecasts, a rate increase seems to be just around the corner.
#economy #markets #centralbanks
#economy #markets #centralbanks
It is officially Fed Day. Interestingly, the primary question does not revolve around what action the US Federal Reserve will take regarding rates, as the market has priced the probability of a change, specifically a cut, at a de minimis 3%. Rather, the spotlight is firmly on how central bankers choose to describe the economic outlook and the associated policy implications.
Regarding the press conference scheduled to follow the release of the FOMC statement, the context is significant. This event marks Chair Powell’s first public appearance following his release of a defiant video in which he accused the Administration of leveraging a DOJ investigation to compromise Fed independence and force rate cuts. This represents a shift, as Powell had historically sidestepped political questions in the past.
There is one additional point to consider. Following May, and depending on the individual selected to replace Chair Powell, the strategy the Fed employs for balance sheet management may ultimately matter more to the economy and markets than the trajectory of rates.
#economy #markets #federalreserve
Regarding the press conference scheduled to follow the release of the FOMC statement, the context is significant. This event marks Chair Powell’s first public appearance following his release of a defiant video in which he accused the Administration of leveraging a DOJ investigation to compromise Fed independence and force rate cuts. This represents a shift, as Powell had historically sidestepped political questions in the past.
There is one additional point to consider. Following May, and depending on the individual selected to replace Chair Powell, the strategy the Fed employs for balance sheet management may ultimately matter more to the economy and markets than the trajectory of rates.
#economy #markets #federalreserve
Global FX markets are currently fixing their gaze on the Korean Won as it takes the lead in today's renewed rally across Asian currencies. This market movement is being fueled primarily by the unfolding situation in Japan, along with influencing factors from the US.
#economy #fx #asia #japan #korea #markets
#economy #fx #asia #japan #korea #markets
The primary storyline continues to be the weakness of the dollar, despite the fact that yields are creeping upward.
#economy #markets
#economy #markets
Sentiment among United States consumers has dipped to a point not observed since 2014, a decline that proved sharper than analysts predicted. This drop reflects a deterioration in assessments regarding both existing circumstances and the outlook for the future. Consequently, the domestic economic landscape remains defined by a paradox. While GDP growth has delivered positive surprises, it stands in stark opposition to this falling confidence. The divergence is largely powered by a disconnect between employment and growth, compounded by lingering stress regarding high prices.
#economy #markets
#economy #markets
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