Have you ever seen someone buy something without paying and then collect tariffs from others?
Trump swung the tariff stick directly at the EU to buy Greenland. As a result, he didn't manage to buy the island, but the friends in the crypto circle collectively gave Trump a 'contribution'.
In the past few days, the most common question I've heard is: gold has surged to a new high of 4600, how come BTC has dropped below 93,000? It was said to be digital gold, so why is it falling apart at a critical moment?
In terms of risk aversion, BTC has indeed not yet reached the old-school resilience of gold that is used to weathering storms. Facing a super hurricane that could overturn global trade tables, BTC currently behaves more like a highly leveraged tech stock. As soon as the wind stirs, everyone's first reaction is to run away.
But does this really mean BTC is not viable?
In the past 24 hours, 860 million dollars vanished into thin air! This is clearly Wall Street forcibly weaning the market! 500 million dollars of leveraged positions were liquidated within an hour. The big players took advantage of the negative news from tariffs to kick out those retail investors who chased highs, maximized leverage, and wished to get rich overnight. As a DCA player, I actually find this deleveraging process to be the healthiest reset in a bull market.
However, I discovered a critically important topic that no one is discussing: the open interest in Bitcoin options has for the first time surpassed that of futures!
The total open interest in options across the network has surged to 75 billion dollars, which is 14 billion more than futures.
> What does this represent? Futures are betting on size, and losing means getting your ladder pulled and liquidated;
> While options are more like buying insurance.
You can see on Deribit, just betting on breaking through the 100,000 dollar level has 2 billion dollars at stake. This indicates that the big players are hedging risks and more secretly and steadily laying out a target of 100,000 dollars. As a long-term holder, I still believe in the underlying logic of this sector.
Recently, there is also a voice in the market that believes Bitcoin will fall below the miners' cost price. So what exactly is the miners' cost price? Will this year completely turn bearish? Remember to follow, and we'll discuss it in our next article.