Federal Reserve decision and other key events, $BTC has returned to 88,000, this position resembles a trap area, both long and short positions are holding their breath, waiting for the major events this Wednesday to set the tone.
Federal Reserve decision (today):
Expectation: The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Focus: Investors are looking for signals in the lines about "when to restart rate cuts." As Chairman Powell's term comes to an end, and the new government’s desire for low rates grows, the independence of the Federal Reserve and the shift in policy are the biggest variables for market volatility.
U.S. government funding deadline (January 30):
Risk: If an agreement on funding is not reached, the U.S. government may face a shutdown.
Impact: A short-term deadlock could trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to tightening liquidity. Once an agreement is reached, risk premiums will quickly decline, and cryptocurrencies may return to an upward trajectory.
In my view, if the government funding agreement can be reached as scheduled on January 30, combined with the relatively mild statements from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin is very likely to achieve an effective breakthrough at the $90,000 level.
