姜楠的笔记

When anxious, go work out or learn English.
Because this is one of the few things in the world that "as long as you put in the effort, you will definitely be rewarded."

Making money is not like that.
Making money has never been linear; the more you work, the more you earn—not necessarily; it often happens suddenly, it’s about timing, cycles, and the random leaps that come after accumulation.

Yet many people remain stubborn:
The more they trade, the more they lose; they become shareholders from trading stocks, landlords from flipping houses, and end up with a husband from dating...
They think persistence is the direction, but the result is just losing more and more in life.

So don’t use all your energy to chase money.
Reclaim your life, strengthen your body, and add another dimension to your language, and you will find:
What can change you is not working harder, but being healthier, clearer, and freer. #共勉

Dear fans and friends, have you all been able to ride the recent Bitcoin roller coaster calmly? Today, I want to share my heartfelt thoughts on the current market situation.

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed left many people startled. It has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak, even dipping to around $74,500, setting a new low for 2026. Although there seems to be a bit of a rebound in the past few days, with nearly $700 million rushing into #ETF on Monday, I suggest everyone not to rush to call a bull market return; this rebound is very likely to be a dead cat bounce designed to lure in more investors.

Why do I say this? We retail investors need to be clear about a few harsh realities:
1. Institutional giants are pulling back their ladders.
Don't be fooled by the inflow on Monday; throughout January, institutions ran over $1.6 billion through #ETF , but this has been the worst month since #ETF was listed. If the price can't stabilize above the institutions' cost line (around $84,000), this rebound is likely just a correction, not a trend reversal.

2. The macro liquidity faucet has been tightened.
Recently, the Federal Reserve has undergone a leadership change, with the new big shot Kevin Warsh leaning hawkishly, the dollar is strengthening, and everyone is dumping risk assets. In my view, the current crisis is due to the exhaustion of dollar liquidity, with Bitcoin and tech stocks both declining simultaneously, indicating that this is not just a problem within the crypto circle; it’s a global cash shortage.
If $75,000 cannot hold, where will we look? Many analysts are eyeing the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which is currently around $57,000 to $58,000. Historical experience tells us that this line is the true 'macro iron bottom'; every time it drops here, it has basically been a strong recovery point for long-term demand.

As retail investors, our primary task now is not to try to catch the bottom, but to survive. In this environment where leverage is rampant and liquidity is poor, a sell order of a few million dollars can create a big pit.
In short, the start of 2026 is quite hardcore, and what we need to do is maintain patience. If Bitcoin really gives us the opportunity to test $57,000, that might be the last major chance for us retail investors prepared by the heavens.

In this uncertain market, living longer is more important than making quick profits! What does everyone think? See you in the comments.

666

Dear friends, if you woke up this morning to find your account shrinking, or even your positions directly evaporating, don't be sad; you are not alone. The entire network has seen liquidations close to 2.2 to 2.5 billion dollars in the last 24 hours, with over 335,000 investors being directly taken out of the market.
The trigger for this black Sunday was Trump's formal nomination of Fed chair nominee Waller on January 30.
Is he a friend of digital currency or a retail investor harvester?
After Waller's nomination, the first reaction in the crypto world was actually one of celebration, because he had publicly supported Bitcoin, considering it an excellent gauge for monetary policy. But the capital markets quickly woke up: this 55-year-old man is fundamentally a hawk on monetary policy.
From the perspective of retail investors, what are we most afraid of? We fear that the Fed won't loosen its policy and that quantitative tightening (QT) will occur. Waller's historical record shows that even during times of economic pressure, he cares more about inflation and discipline.

In my personal opinion, don't be fooled by his Bitcoin-friendly label. Waller does have a positive outlook on Bitcoin, but he values discipline even more. He even proposed significantly reducing the Fed's current balance sheet of up to 6.6 trillion dollars. What does shrinking the balance sheet mean? It means draining the liquidity from the market. This fear of shrinking the balance sheet is precisely what triggered the sell-off on Sunday.

Large holders are waiting for buying opportunities at 70,000 dollars or even lower, while leveraged retail investors are being liquidated in the dark. If you wish to stay at the table, be sure to put away your leverage and focus on the truly valuable underlying infrastructure—like Ethereum's upcoming upgrade #Glamsterdam , or Bitcoin's #ZK-rollup experiment.
Although Waller is a hawk, he is also a sensible person. As long as the Fed doesn't act recklessly, the long-term scarcity value of Bitcoin remains unmatched. But the premise is that you have to survive until then.
Stay vigilant, and see you next time!

$BTC The bulls are currently holding on while the bears are sharpening their knives.
Currently, the bulls' dominant position in closing trades has reached 97%, and almost all liquidations are from the bulls.
This indicates that market sentiment has become extremely distorted. Although such extreme values usually foreshadow a possible short-term rebound (because the selling pressure is intense), without subsequent funds to take over, this stabilization is merely a dead fish jumping.
Moreover, after a normal drop, the funding rate should turn negative (bears pay bulls). The funding rate is still positive now.
In my view, this suggests that the bulls in the market are not giving up; they are crazily rebuilding their long positions at an extremely high cost. Since the position structure is still tilted towards the bulls, any rebound is just a wave of escape.

Remember that saying—only when the bulls stop being bullish will the market truly be able to rise. The current funding rate indicates that the bulls have not been subdued; the market might still go through a more severe drop to force the funding rate to zero.

Federal Reserve's January decision is finalized: the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, ending three consecutive rate cuts. If tariff inflation peaks and then falls this year, policy may be relaxed.

In my personal view, strong economic data and a stabilized labor market have deprived the Federal Reserve of the momentum for continuous aggressive rate cuts. Although the Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts, the market interprets this as the interest rate having reached its ceiling, and that it must decrease in the future.

Under this expectation gap, precious metals have performed extremely aggressively,
spot gold surged by $600 during the week, once approaching $5600, setting a historic high.
Spot silver rose nearly 2% in the day, breaking through $119.

If tariff inflation fails to peak as scheduled in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, during which currently overvalued assets (including gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies) may face a severe deflationary pullback.

In this round of BSC, if you want to play in the second phase, you can't avoid #Flap (🦋 Butterfly Platform).
Now the BSC consensus is very clear: Flap for BSC is like Bonk for SOL.
In the current BSC liquidity environment:
500,000 market cap = Small Gold Dog
1,000,000 and above = Real Gold Dog
If we look at a very rough but real indicator: Withdrawal Rate = 500K market cap ÷ Total number of launches, the number of Flap launches is not many, but the quality is obviously higher, and the withdrawal rate has already outperformed fourmeme.
More importantly is the ability in the second phase.
Recently, the star projects on Flap have been repeatedly validated:
#分红狗头 —— A few days old project, breaking new highs for the second time
#OSK —— A typical second phase re-evaluation model
#LAF —— Million market cap, clearly from #FLAP launch
These are not "lucky dogs", but the result of community + funds + narrative completing the second consensus internally in Flap.
What you see now is:
The community with the most traffic and the best at playing the second phase is continuously building on Flap.
Instead of retail investors taking the last baton outside.
👉 If you still have prejudice against Flap
👉 Then you are very likely to miss the most certain profit structure in this round of BSC
Now is the best stage to enter the Butterfly and focus on the Alpha star projects.

Federal Reserve decision and other key events, $BTC has returned to 88,000, this position resembles a trap area, both long and short positions are holding their breath, waiting for the major events this Wednesday to set the tone.

Federal Reserve decision (today):
Expectation: The market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
Focus: Investors are looking for signals in the lines about "when to restart rate cuts." As Chairman Powell's term comes to an end, and the new government’s desire for low rates grows, the independence of the Federal Reserve and the shift in policy are the biggest variables for market volatility.

U.S. government funding deadline (January 30):
Risk: If an agreement on funding is not reached, the U.S. government may face a shutdown.
Impact: A short-term deadlock could trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to tightening liquidity. Once an agreement is reached, risk premiums will quickly decline, and cryptocurrencies may return to an upward trajectory.

In my view, if the government funding agreement can be reached as scheduled on January 30, combined with the relatively mild statements from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin is very likely to achieve an effective breakthrough at the $90,000 level.

Where is the bottom for Bitcoin? Market sentiment has shifted from hoping for 100,000 to praying for 80,000. Since January 14, it has fallen more than 10%. The latest data from January 27 shows that gold prices have surpassed 5,000 USD. Funds are flowing from digital gold to physical gold. The temporary failure of this safe-haven property is the main reason for the loss of 87,000 at $BTC .
Currently, attention should be paid to key support levels at 80,000 and 75,000. Short-term fluctuations are not the core focus; if prices rebound, hold and gradually diversify the allocation, and if a deep correction occurs, it should be seen as a buying opportunity.
2026 is a cyclical bear market, and a drop of over 50% down to 58,000 is considered a thorough decline.

Now, the $ETH has no story in front of AI and no sense of security in front of gold. In the past week, there has been a withdrawal of 1.3 billion to 1.7 billion USD. Institutions are no longer the ones picking up the pieces but have become the ones smashing the market. The U.S. has become a heavy disaster zone for withdrawals. The probability of falling below 2,000 is much higher than returning to 4,000.

Just saw that #币安 has launched TSLA perpetual stock, and I clearly stand my ground: this is the "version leap" of cryptocurrency exchanges.

Many people only see one announcement: "There is one more TSLA contract, with 5x leverage."

But what is actually happening is that Binance is unifying the "global core assets" into a single cryptocurrency trading system.

❌ No need for a US stock account
❌ No need for currency exchange
❌ No need for T+1
❌ No need to be filtered by country and threshold

👉 You only need USDT.

The essence of this step is not about "doing US stocks", but redefining who is qualified to participate in global asset pricing.

Traditional finance relies on access thresholds to filter people, while Binance breaks through the barriers with its products.

TSLA is not the end point; it is just the first core US stock asset to be "cryptified". By the time you realize it, NVDA, AAPL, and index contracts will just be a matter of time.

By then you will find: it is not Binance doing US stocks, but US stocks being pulled into the cryptocurrency world.

If DeFi is a rewrite of financial structures, what Binance is doing is a rewrite of trading rights.

At this step, I unreservedly have a bullish outlook on Binance.

$BTC During this wave of selling in the early morning, the main function is to liquidate long positions. Currently, Bitcoin has a return rate of -0.5% in January. Logically, with geopolitical turmoil, everyone should buy Bitcoin as a safe haven, but the funds have all gone to buy gold.

In my view, when the risk reaches a certain level, institutions will first liquidate the most liquid assets $BTC to supplement the stock or bond market positions. From January 19 to 23, Bitcoin spot #ETF had a net outflow of 1.33 billion USD, setting a historical second-high. BlackRock's #IBIT inflow has slowed, indicating that major funds have chosen to withdraw and wait in the face of uncertainty regarding the new policy of the 'understanding king'.

From the K-line perspective, 87,000 is not only a strong support on the weekly chart but also the average holding cost area for many institutions. Here, it's better to observe than to panic.

The yen surged, is the Federal Reserve acting behind the scenes? The yen exchange rate has experienced the most exaggerated single-day increase in over six months. The Federal Reserve may have intervened to help Japan print money to put out the fire.

If the Federal Reserve wants to stabilize the yen without letting Japan sell U.S. Treasuries (because selling U.S. Treasuries would crash the U.S. market), it has only one method:
Step one: The Federal Reserve creates dollars (bank reserves) out of thin air through digital printing.
Step two: Use these new dollars to buy yen in the market.
Result: There are more dollars, the value decreases; yen is bought, the value increases. The yen exchange rate stabilizes, but global dollar liquidity also increases as a result.

In my opinion, whether the Federal Reserve is trying to save Japan, save banks, or save U.S. Treasuries, as long as it starts printing money, the money will flow to the most sensitive and scarce asset—Bitcoin.

Federal Reserve Chair final round, Trump stated that he has completed the interviews for the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate, who will succeed the current Chair Powell, whose term ends in May this year.
The original front-runner, Hassett, has completely lost his momentum.
BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has become the standout performer. Ten days ago, Rieder's odds were only 3%, and now they have soared to 33%. BlackRock is indeed the shadow of Wall Street, not only mastering Bitcoin #ETF , but now also wanting to take a seat in the Federal Reserve Chair?

Kevin Warsh, although he is leading, is seeing his advantage being eroded by Rieder. Trump is now worried not about their professionalism, but rather about them turning against him once they take office, just like Powell did.

In my opinion, if Rieder takes office, the Federal Reserve will completely enter the era of major asset management. A Chair with a BlackRock background inherently comes with liquidity-friendly genes. This is not good news for the Bitcoin we hold; it's an epic level of support arriving. Now Trump publicly humiliates Powell for being too slow in his actions. This means that the first action of the new Chair after taking office is highly likely to be a violent interest rate cut to meet Trump's 1% rate target.

Must-read for trading altcoins
‼️‼️‼️
1. Hold when it rises 10%
2. Hold when it rises 20%
3. Reduce by 10% when it rises 30%
4. Reduce by 20% when it rises 40%
5. Reduce by 30% when it rises 50%
6. Reduce by 40% when it rises 60%
7. Clear position when it rises 100%
8. Hold when it falls 10%
9. Add 10% when it falls 20%
10. Add 30% when it falls 30%
11. Add 50% when it falls 50%
12. Add 100% when it falls 100%

US stocks and Bitcoin are both falling. US Treasury Secretary: Don't blame Trump for raising tariffs, and don't blame the Greenland purchase; it's all the fault of the Japanese bond market!
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has indeed gone crazy in the past two days, breaking through 2.3% (a 27-year high), and the ultra-long 40-year bonds even surpassed 4%.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has thrown out a fiscal bomb of tax cuts and large expenditures for the election on February 8. Institutions are scared and are quickly selling Japanese bonds.
Japan is the largest creditor in the world. The soaring yield on Japanese bonds will lead to a withdrawal of Japanese capital from the global market (especially US Treasury bonds).

Trump strikes, Bitcoin directly breaks the $92,000 mark, gold becomes a god
On January 20, Trump made remarks about tariffs on Europe, stating "a 200% tariff will be imposed on French wine and champagne"
Trump and Europe are discussing buying islands and selling wine, resulting in the leveraged players in the cryptocurrency circle being hit hard by the tariff. Those brothers who were heavily invested at $95,000 probably can’t even afford to buy champagne with a 200% tariff right now.

This once again proves that in 2026, traders who don't watch Trump's Twitter are not good traders. Political noise has become the highest priority trading signal.

The selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman has suddenly changed, and Hassett may withdraw, while Walsh has become the biggest favorite.
Hassett recently stated that Trump hopes he will continue to shine in the White House.
Currently, the odds of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh have skyrocketed to 60%. Walsh is young, tough, and understands Wall Street. Most importantly, he is obedient enough in Trump's eyes but also professional.
In my opinion, if Walsh takes office, he is likely to implement policies that are more favorable for a hot economy. This means that the easing of monetary policy could be stronger than expected, and inflation could be harsher than anticipated.
After all, the current Federal Reserve Chairman election is not about whose economic theory is more solid, but rather who understands Trump's gaze better.

The price of Bitcoin is approaching the cost line for short-term holders, and the expected trend will become clear after increased volatility.
Currently, Bitcoin is at $95,500, testing the bottom line for short-term holders (average cost $99,460).

The gap between the current price and cost price is only 4% now. This is an extremely awkward decision zone. Sell it, and you feel regretful before dawn; don't sell it, and watch as this 4% unrealized loss could turn into a 10% significant bleed.

But in the eyes of us old investors, this is a large-scale tug of war between bulls and bears.
Upwards: If it can return to $100,000 and stabilize, those short-term holders will instantly transform from resentful figures into believers in the bull market; this will be the reversal.
Downwards: If the price falls below $89,500 (with a discount rate exceeding 10%), then it’s no longer a decision; it’s called a collective stampede.

In my view, this kind of fluctuation near the cost line is specifically designed to harvest those retail investors who cannot hold on and think too much.

Bitcoin has officially entered the policy sycophant mode. It's 2026 now, and if you are still holding onto that four-year cycle's metaphorical map, waiting for the halving to save your account, then it's basically the same as waiting for Newton to be resurrected to help you trade stocks.

In the past, we believed that Bitcoin was code is law, halving every four years, supply shrinking, and prices soaring. So pure, so mathematical! But now? Those giants like BlackRock are making daily purchases and redemptions in #ETF , with a scale that has long surpassed the meager earnings of miners.

Now there is no liquidity, and even if your Bitcoin is made of gold, no one will carry your palanquin. The government, in order to pay off debts, is spending wildly and must forcibly keep interest rates down, allowing inflation to run ahead of interest rates.

Everyone is still waiting for the institutional army to arrive in 2026, but institutions are not small players; their guts are smaller than a cat's. They don't care how much the halving has reduced; they care about that "U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Structure Legislation."
Without legislation: buying Bitcoin is a violation and will get you a coffee invitation from the compliance department;
With legislation: buying Bitcoin is a strategic allocation and can be included in the annual summary as a wise decision.
So, the logic of the current market is very simple: no good news, no institutional support.