20260128 The last exit opportunity for this round of Bitcoin may not be far away.
1.
Bitcoin's closing last week further clarified the trend of the bear market.
This week, the daily MACD for Bitcoin can reflect a rebound. Wait for a temporary high point, and then you can completely exit the market.
This is the last exit opportunity of this bull market.
Those who like to do short contracts can consider watching for opportunities around 91800 and 94000.
This contract can reach the range of 75000-80000.
2.
One year of bear, three years of bull; the bull moves slowly, the bear moves quickly.
In a bear market, altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin.
Theoretically, cryptocurrencies are more suitable for short positions to profit from.
However, it is important to note that cryptocurrencies with very small market caps carry risks that are hard to ignore, even when shorting contracts.
For example, it’s easier to have sharp price fluctuations, causing contracts to be liquidated.
It is also easier to suddenly drop to zero, making it impossible to realize profits from short positions.
Therefore, if one must take mid- to long-term (several months or even a few quarters) short positions on cryptocurrencies, it is best to choose those ranked in the top hundred with some scale, which are expected to have significant multiples of growth during the bull market from 2023 to 2025, and will not easily go to zero.
Three,
There are reports that the second generation Solana phone has appeared with discount opportunities:
If the news is true, it indicates several issues:
First, as per tradition, this phone will likely have an airdrop in the future to support users who buy the phone, so I, as one of the first users, should definitely not sell it.
Second, this phone is under pressure to clear inventory, further proving that the bear market is approaching from the perspective of the poor development of cryptocurrencies this round.
Third, the actual cost of this phone, as everyone expected, is at the level of domestically produced thousand-yuan phones. If one is not used to using such a cheap phone, it’s best not to bother studying it. Minimalism is good.
Four,
Last night, I drank Johnnie Walker with Wei Ge, 40 degrees, and it was indeed much better than 40-degree liquor; my stomach felt fine, and I didn’t vomit. The next day, I didn’t have a headache either.
If young people drink all kinds of alcohol and compare them, Chinese liquor really has average competitiveness.
The stock price has indeed halved.
Chinese strong aroma liquor, especially, is facing difficulties and has a foul taste when consumed.
We mentioned the price of liquor at the table. Wei Ge said he would buy Moutai if it sells for 500 yuan a bottle, and I said I would buy it if the stock price reaches 700.
We both laughed.
Five,
My cousin has been asking me about gold lately, seemingly stimulated by the rising market and suffering from FOMO.
During the bear market in 2022, I once advised her to buy Bitcoin, but she said she doesn’t gamble.
I said buying some gold is also fine. I almost invested everything in gold in 2018 and 2019.
She said she didn’t understand it at the time.
Today, I told her the following:
You are too young. You think you have all the time in the world. I was the same back then. When someone recommended something to me, I looked down on it and didn’t bother to learn. I followed my interests first.
Only many years later will one realize that the missed opportunities were actually very good.
My parents are the same, as are my grandparents. There are regrets. That’s life.
For example, my mom, from 1994 to 1995, used the sand roots brought from Qingdao to make cold noodles at the market, earning about 5-10 times the income of an ordinary village cadre. The money earned in one summer was equal to a village cadre's annual income.
But her mindset, like my second aunt's, is that this job is temporary; once she earns enough money for a house, she will stop and focus on being the women's director or a clerk at the village committee.
Content with a simple life.
Later, my mom mentioned many times that many people thought the cold noodles they made were the best in Rizhport. People came from afar, but they couldn’t get it and suggested they should continue operating.
But their mindset is that they will never go into business in this lifetime.
Although working at the village committee is also for income, the fixed mindset prevents them from breaking free.
If she had continued selling cold noodles at the market or rented a place to open a small shop, she would have made a lot of money by now.
It's too late to regret. After turning 30, one's mindset changes, especially after moving to Hong Kong’s Third District in 1999.
The "sand root" used to make cold noodles is scientifically known as Gelidium amansii, a marine algae belonging to the red algae division, and is the core ingredient for making traditional sea cold noodles (sand root powder) in coastal areas.
The quality of sea lettuce varies by region. We use the wild variety from the Dafu Island waters near the Qingdao Naval Base, which is relatively far from the shore and has better quality.
I can’t fully understand it. But at that time, I earned a few thousand yuan and just stopped.
Not a single day is too much to do.
He even found himself a reason that "sand roots are about to run out"; deep down, he feels that doing business is all about shady dealings, or he himself is "not cut out for business". A serious person would definitely work at the village committee, even if the income is only one-tenth of what he could make in business.
Sand roots can be easily sourced from Qingdao.
People from Chaoshan won’t think this way
In the year 2000, many people made only 1,000 yuan a month working in Rizhport as tugboat operators.
My mom could actually do it in 1994.
My cousin commented:
Having this skill is indeed a pity. They feel it’s better to have a stable job? This is how Shandong people think.
I said:
This morning, I took my child to see a doctor. Several pediatricians in the doctor’s office were passionately discussing housing prices, or to say, they were discussing the suffering of "how some director’s house in a certain community dropped by 700,000 to 800,000 yuan."
In December 2005, my dad took out all his savings of 73,000 yuan to buy a car because he had enough of riding motorcycles.
At that time, he thought he would only have this one car for life. It was too expensive. He absolutely wouldn’t change cars. So he didn’t buy a 40,000 or 50,000 yuan Geely but bought a Buick Sail instead.
Most of his colleagues also had enough of riding motorcycles and went to buy houses near Rizhport, commuting by bicycle to work. Some even bought cars, most of which were inexpensive.
At that time, a house at the entrance of Rizhport was around 150,000 yuan for over 100 square meters.
My dad didn’t buy a house for three reasons. First, buying a house requires a loan of tens of thousands, and my dad isn’t used to borrowing money or taking out loans. Second, because my mom works at the village committee and earns 5,000 yuan a year, her job must be prioritized. He can drive to work. Third, because I went to high school, it was closer to live in our hometown.
In summary:
In life, if one cannot recognize large cycles and prioritize effectively through awareness, they will basically miss the rhythm.
The money that should have been spent wasn’t spent, and the money that shouldn’t have been spent was spent; the things that should have been done weren’t done, and the things that shouldn’t have been done were done.
Grasping major historical phases relies entirely on cognitive support to enable the family to become wealthy.
Otherwise, it would basically just be a joke.
For example: I am 40 years old, and I will only drive this one car for life. Also, for instance, the housing market in China is supported by the government, so prices will always rise; any drop is temporary.
Only learning methods are eternal.
Six,
An AI assistant originally named Clawdbot, which was later renamed to Moltbot due to trademark issues, has become a global sensation. A rumor stating that "it can only run on Mac Mini" even caused Mac Mini to sell out.
It has powerful capabilities such as independently achieving goals, proactively providing services, and remembering interaction content, similar to Jarvis from Iron Man. However, the need for users to grant underlying operational permissions has triggered discussions on permission abuse and privacy leaks. These issues are expected to be solved by building dedicated environments, authorizing low-balance accounts, and introducing defensive AI; as a prototype for future AI, it allows people to see a new dawn in industry development, indicating that humanity can create greater social value with less time, achieve information and creative equality, and requires people to reconstruct workflows, establish an "AI First" mindset, and become AI natives. The core competitiveness in the future will depend on this.
In summary, AI must be learned and used.
However, many people are already anxious: because they don’t understand AI, don’t know how to use AI, or see AI developing too quickly and endlessly emerging.
There’s really no need. Stick to principles, continuously refine your learning methods, and being able to adapt to challenges is enough. People are flexible; as long as they keep observing market demands and working towards meeting the needs of customers and consumers, human society will only get better, not worse.
Those hyped-up statements about involution, like "hundreds of millions will be unemployed and become useless", are quite ridiculous.
Seven,
About houses.
Someone asked:
Is it really 2029?
I said it’s possible. Look at the property tax.
I also asked: Can we buy a house in 2028?
I said:
It depends on what you actually want to do with the house.
Buying a small place to live that matches your needs and allows for casual decoration is fine.
Or, if the return on investment is calculated well enough to recoup costs through rental income in 5-10 years, that’s also acceptable.
If it’s just like before, spending a fortune to buy a big one, then living comfortably for a few years before selling it, thinking it’s a win-win—living in a new house while making big money—then it’s better not to fantasize about it.
Housing prices may remain at the bottom for a long time without rising.
This long term might mean a decade or even more.
Will not have a V-shaped reversal.