看心
价值投资
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
8 Years
11 Following
105 Followers
77 Liked
4 Shared
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Live
20260202 Although today is a full moon, Bitcoin is currently very weak.
1.
The night before last, my 80,000 order was executed, and later I realized I was wrong, so I immediately cut my losses and exited. Although February 2 is a full moon, and in the past few years, most full moons have led to price increases, this time it really might not be the case. The specific situation will depend on the thoughts of large capital regarding short positions, as this is the only reason for a rebound. The market itself is currently very weak.
2.
The ahr999 indicator is currently around 0.4, which is quite exaggerated. It is equivalent to the position of entering the bottom line around June 10, 2022. At that time, BTC dropped from 27,000 to 22,000 that week.
If we view it from the perspective of ahr999's boat-casting method, BTC could still drop by 40%, which means it would ultimately reach around 47,000.
The night before last, my 80,000 order was executed, and later I realized I was wrong, so I immediately cut my losses and exited. Although February 2 is a full moon, and in the past few years, most full moons have led to price increases, this time it really might not be the case. The specific situation will depend on the thoughts of large capital regarding short positions, as this is the only reason for a rebound. The market itself is currently very weak.
2.
The ahr999 indicator is currently around 0.4, which is quite exaggerated. It is equivalent to the position of entering the bottom line around June 10, 2022. At that time, BTC dropped from 27,000 to 22,000 that week.
If we view it from the perspective of ahr999's boat-casting method, BTC could still drop by 40%, which means it would ultimately reach around 47,000.
20260131 Bitcoin at 80,000 has support, gold has peaked, the Fed has a new head, cz is being criticized, will mstr's bear market turn?
1.
Bitcoin.
This time, Bitcoin has dropped to around 81000 and has not broken the low of around 80000 from November 22.
So, the decline is not enough.
Here we are.
There is a high probability of a further downward pin breaking the last low, which is around 80000, triggering stop-losses for shorts, and then beginning a rebound within the fluctuation range.
Within the fluctuation range of 80000 to 98000, there are three gaps and a potential false breakout position at the top.
The three gaps are 86000, 91800, and 94000. The false breakout position is in the range of 98000-100000.
No matter how bearish one is about the major market in 2026, during each phase of the short term, no one can predict exactly where the market will land; one can only say broadly that even in a bear market there will be some fluctuations.
Bitcoin.
This time, Bitcoin has dropped to around 81000 and has not broken the low of around 80000 from November 22.
So, the decline is not enough.
Here we are.
There is a high probability of a further downward pin breaking the last low, which is around 80000, triggering stop-losses for shorts, and then beginning a rebound within the fluctuation range.
Within the fluctuation range of 80000 to 98000, there are three gaps and a potential false breakout position at the top.
The three gaps are 86000, 91800, and 94000. The false breakout position is in the range of 98000-100000.
No matter how bearish one is about the major market in 2026, during each phase of the short term, no one can predict exactly where the market will land; one can only say broadly that even in a bear market there will be some fluctuations.
20260130 Do not buy Bitcoin, do not buy gold... there is nothing worth buying now, we should wait.
I.
About investor types.
In his book (The Intelligent Investor), Graham clearly divides investors into two categories: Defensive Investors and Aggressive (Enterprising) Investors, based on the time, energy, professional ability, as well as return goals and risk tolerance logic that investors put in.
1. The Defensive Investor is the type that Graham believes is suitable for the vast majority of ordinary investors, and it is his preferred choice.
This type of investor does not have sufficient time, energy, or professional financial knowledge to conduct in-depth research on securities, does not aim for excess returns, and their core demand is to ensure the safety of principal and obtain stable, long-term returns at the market average level, completely avoiding speculative risks. They should achieve: extreme restraint in investment behavior, infrequent trading, no predictions of short-term market trends, strictly adhering to a margin of safety, and only making high-certainty investment choices.
About investor types.
In his book (The Intelligent Investor), Graham clearly divides investors into two categories: Defensive Investors and Aggressive (Enterprising) Investors, based on the time, energy, professional ability, as well as return goals and risk tolerance logic that investors put in.
1. The Defensive Investor is the type that Graham believes is suitable for the vast majority of ordinary investors, and it is his preferred choice.
This type of investor does not have sufficient time, energy, or professional financial knowledge to conduct in-depth research on securities, does not aim for excess returns, and their core demand is to ensure the safety of principal and obtain stable, long-term returns at the market average level, completely avoiding speculative risks. They should achieve: extreme restraint in investment behavior, infrequent trading, no predictions of short-term market trends, strictly adhering to a margin of safety, and only making high-certainty investment choices.
20260129 Prepare to sell gold for cash and wait for Bitcoin's deep bear market to buy back
1.
About gold.
All the groups have been discussing gold these days. I believe many people can relate deeply.
I laid out investments in gold in 2018 and 2019. As the gold price broke through 1250 yuan per gram (around 5450 USD per ounce), profits exceeded 200%.
At that time, I didn't dare to go all in, just heavily invested.
Looking back, I actually didn't understand the whole framework of value investing at that time. If I had understood it then, I would have gone all in on Bitcoin, instead of buying gold, which was too inefficient.
This kind of scene feels like the end of a bull market.
It's best to get the principal out.
Getting the principal out is one way to improve life.
20260128 The last exit opportunity for this round of Bitcoin may not be far away.
20260128 The last exit opportunity for this round of Bitcoin may not be far away.
1.
Bitcoin's closing last week further clarified the trend of the bear market.
This week, the daily MACD for Bitcoin can reflect a rebound. Wait for a temporary high point, and then you can completely exit the market.
This is the last exit opportunity of this bull market.
Those who like to do short contracts can consider watching for opportunities around 91800 and 94000.
This contract can reach the range of 75000-80000.
2.
One year of bear, three years of bull; the bull moves slowly, the bear moves quickly.
In a bear market, altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin.
1.
Bitcoin's closing last week further clarified the trend of the bear market.
This week, the daily MACD for Bitcoin can reflect a rebound. Wait for a temporary high point, and then you can completely exit the market.
This is the last exit opportunity of this bull market.
Those who like to do short contracts can consider watching for opportunities around 91800 and 94000.
This contract can reach the range of 75000-80000.
2.
One year of bear, three years of bull; the bull moves slowly, the bear moves quickly.
In a bear market, altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin.
20260119 - Today's Bitcoin: If it doesn't return to 95000 by 8 o'clock tomorrow, the decline will continue.
1. This morning at 7 o'clock, due to news of a significant reduction in expectations for Trump's tariff war and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin suddenly fell below 94700, returning to its previous consolidation range.
The bottom of this range is 80000.
So for now, let's look at 80000.
In the one and a half months prior to this, I repeatedly said that before the real second round of the bear market crash, it would rebound to 98000. On January 15, it reached 97925, so it has basically arrived.
Although a higher position hasn't been reached, from the perspective of a major bear market, a run to 98000 is quite reasonable.
Unless it strongly recovers above 95000 before 8 o'clock on January 20 Beijing time, the second round of the bear market decline will be confirmed.
The bottom of this range is 80000.
So for now, let's look at 80000.
In the one and a half months prior to this, I repeatedly said that before the real second round of the bear market crash, it would rebound to 98000. On January 15, it reached 97925, so it has basically arrived.
Although a higher position hasn't been reached, from the perspective of a major bear market, a run to 98000 is quite reasonable.
Unless it strongly recovers above 95000 before 8 o'clock on January 20 Beijing time, the second round of the bear market decline will be confirmed.
20260111 Study on Duan Yongping's Put Option Strategy to Handle Bitcoin Bear Market
In the book 'Dao of Duan Yongping', it is mentioned that for NVIDIA, you can place a short-term put option, as the annualized premium is quite attractive.
Today, let's analyze how Dao uses short put options to manage downside risk for high-quality assets, and what insights this strategy offers for dealing with the Bitcoin bear market.
What Duan Yongping means is: sell a small amount of short-term cash-secured put options on NVIDIA, as the annualized premium from short-term options is appealing—earning premium income while also having the opportunity to acquire shares at a lower price for observation purposes.
I. Core Term Breakdown
Today, let's analyze how Dao uses short put options to manage downside risk for high-quality assets, and what insights this strategy offers for dealing with the Bitcoin bear market.
What Duan Yongping means is: sell a small amount of short-term cash-secured put options on NVIDIA, as the annualized premium from short-term options is appealing—earning premium income while also having the opportunity to acquire shares at a lower price for observation purposes.
I. Core Term Breakdown
20250106 Bitcoin Today: Bearish but Don't Short
20250106 Bitcoin Today: Bearish but Don't Short
I.
The big coin is about to hit 98,000, which I've been saying for several weeks.
This is the first wave, and there might be a second wave, pushing toward the 106,000-110,000 range.
I was wrong earlier; I thought we'd need to crush the bulls first before a rise. Now I realize I was mistaken.
II.
Whether it's 98,000 or 106,000, I still believe these levels are minor highs in the first phase of the bear market. It's time to escape.
However, according to value investing principles, be bearish but don't short.
III.
Apart from Venezuela, Iran's situation is also worth watching.
I.
The big coin is about to hit 98,000, which I've been saying for several weeks.
This is the first wave, and there might be a second wave, pushing toward the 106,000-110,000 range.
I was wrong earlier; I thought we'd need to crush the bulls first before a rise. Now I realize I was mistaken.
II.
Whether it's 98,000 or 106,000, I still believe these levels are minor highs in the first phase of the bear market. It's time to escape.
However, according to value investing principles, be bearish but don't short.
III.
Apart from Venezuela, Iran's situation is also worth watching.
20260105 Switzerland Freezes Maduro's Assets: The Fragility of the Banking System and the Autonomous Wealth Revolution of Bitcoin
On January 5, 2026, the Swiss Federal Council announced the freezing of all assets of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his associates in Switzerland. This decision was swiftly implemented as a precautionary measure aimed at preventing potential illegal asset outflows. This incident is not isolated but rather a recurring warning in the global financial system: state power can intervene in private wealth at any time, freezing it instantly. Switzerland, known for its banking secrecy and neutrality, was once seen as a 'fortress of wealth' for the global elite, but now actively cooperates with sanctions under international political pressure. This not only targets Maduro personally but also serves as a wake-up call to all who rely on traditional banks to store their wealth: your assets have never truly belonged to you.
Today's Bitcoin - 20260102
1.
Price trends and market performance
Price range: Since the major cryptocurrency fell below $90,000 on November 20, it has been fluctuating between $80,000 and $95,000. The range is approximately 15%. The market faces negative factors such as reduced purchases by ETF and hoarding companies, interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and policy pressures from China, as well as positive factors like the Federal Reserve halting QT and interest rate cuts in December.
Latest market situation (January 2): As buying interest increases, prices have slightly rebounded to around $89,000.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies approaches $3 trillion. The Coinglass Fear and Greed Index is at 27, slightly rebounding, but still in the fear zone.
Price trends and market performance
Price range: Since the major cryptocurrency fell below $90,000 on November 20, it has been fluctuating between $80,000 and $95,000. The range is approximately 15%. The market faces negative factors such as reduced purchases by ETF and hoarding companies, interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and policy pressures from China, as well as positive factors like the Federal Reserve halting QT and interest rate cuts in December.
Latest market situation (January 2): As buying interest increases, prices have slightly rebounded to around $89,000.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies approaches $3 trillion. The Coinglass Fear and Greed Index is at 27, slightly rebounding, but still in the fear zone.
🎙️ 2025最后两天比特币去往哪个方向？
End
04 m 49 s
67
BNB
Holding
+114.67
0
Leave the venue
S
BTC/USDT
Price
87,219.57
20251229 Today's Bitcoin: Insights from the Charles Hoskinson Interview
Before starting the main text, let’s talk about the trend of Bitcoin. As I mentioned in the past few days, Bitcoin has completed a washout at the bottom range with low trading volume and low volatility, slowly breaking through the downtrend line. If it can retest the trend line without breaking below it, there is a high probability of a phase of upward movement. The target remains 98000.
(17:50 sudden addition: just as I was finishing this article, a sudden drop and retest occurred.)
This article is divided into two parts: the first part is a summary of an in-depth interview between YouTuber Derek and Ethereum co-founder, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson (modified based on my AI summary). The second part is my commentary on the interview.
(17:50 sudden addition: just as I was finishing this article, a sudden drop and retest occurred.)
This article is divided into two parts: the first part is a summary of an in-depth interview between YouTuber Derek and Ethereum co-founder, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson (modified based on my AI summary). The second part is my commentary on the interview.
Bitcoin on December 28, 2025: The corrective phase may be nearing its end, and it could potentially break upwards through the daily trend line
1. Market conditions: Price pressure and 'safe-haven position' are being challenged
Price trend: The current trading price of Bitcoin is around $87,000. Compared to the historical high of $126,000 set in October 2025, the price has retreated about 30%. During the weekend of December 27 and 28, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market showed a significant 'decoupling' trend from traditional assets (such as gold and US stocks), with overall market sentiment being relatively low. However, there are signs that the price may be approaching the end of a corrective phase, and it could potentially break upwards through the daily trend line in the near future. If it can successfully break through and not fall below after multiple tests, a significant rebound can be expected.
Price trend: The current trading price of Bitcoin is around $87,000. Compared to the historical high of $126,000 set in October 2025, the price has retreated about 30%. During the weekend of December 27 and 28, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market showed a significant 'decoupling' trend from traditional assets (such as gold and US stocks), with overall market sentiment being relatively low. However, there are signs that the price may be approaching the end of a corrective phase, and it could potentially break upwards through the daily trend line in the near future. If it can successfully break through and not fall below after multiple tests, a significant rebound can be expected.
20251226 Today's Bitcoin: Epic Options Expiry
1. Market Trend: Fluctuated after a sharp rise
Today's bitcoin price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling:
Price Fluctuation: From early morning to morning, bitcoin once surged to around 89,300 USD. However, it then fell due to market profit-taking. As of late night Beijing time, bitcoin returned to around 87,000 USD, with a low of 86666 USD. A door has been drawn again. Still in a relatively small range.
The trend line on the daily chart is strong, has not yet broken through, and continues to move downward after touching. This is the third contact point. I estimate that it will consolidate near 80000 for a while, and it would be better to break below 80000 to trigger stop-loss before starting to rise again.
Today's bitcoin price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling:
Price Fluctuation: From early morning to morning, bitcoin once surged to around 89,300 USD. However, it then fell due to market profit-taking. As of late night Beijing time, bitcoin returned to around 87,000 USD, with a low of 86666 USD. A door has been drawn again. Still in a relatively small range.
The trend line on the daily chart is strong, has not yet broken through, and continues to move downward after touching. This is the third contact point. I estimate that it will consolidate near 80000 for a while, and it would be better to break below 80000 to trigger stop-loss before starting to rise again.
Bitcoin on December 25, 2025: Preparing for Year-End Wrap-Up
Bitcoin is wrapping up a tumultuous year with a relatively 'quiet' posture.
Unlike the traditional stock market's 'Santa Rally' during the Christmas period, Bitcoin is currently characterized by weak fundamentals, outflows of institutional funds, and cautious market sentiment.
1.
Market performance: Absence of the 'Santa Rally'
Price dynamics: Bitcoin's price is currently fluctuating around $86400 – $88,000, down about 30% from its historic high of approximately $126,000 reached in October this year.
Volatility trend: The market is in a state of 'Bullish Neutrality.' With over $23 billion in options expiring this week, investors tend to hold off on trading, leading to a decline in trading volume during Christmas and a noticeable reduction in price volatility.
Unlike the traditional stock market's 'Santa Rally' during the Christmas period, Bitcoin is currently characterized by weak fundamentals, outflows of institutional funds, and cautious market sentiment.
1.
Market performance: Absence of the 'Santa Rally'
Price dynamics: Bitcoin's price is currently fluctuating around $86400 – $88,000, down about 30% from its historic high of approximately $126,000 reached in October this year.
Volatility trend: The market is in a state of 'Bullish Neutrality.' With over $23 billion in options expiring this week, investors tend to hold off on trading, leading to a decline in trading volume during Christmas and a noticeable reduction in price volatility.
🎙️ 比特币2026预测
End
39 m 16 s
112
BTC
Holding
-2027
0
Why implement foreign exchange controls?
Why does China not allow virtual currency trading platforms to exist?
In 2017, I thought of a question.
The country controls foreign exchange so strictly every day. A group of people who deal in currency buy BTC on one side and turn it into USD to go abroad, and the country can't control it at all.
Can such a thing that poses a huge threat to foreign exchange control be allowed to exist?
Everyone knows what happened later.
Virtual currency trading was banned on September 30, 2017.
Some people in the comment area said that the country's foreign exchange did not decrease during this process, so there was no impact.
When the amount is small, it has no impact, but when the amount is large, more BTC held in China is sold abroad, and someone must buy back BTC from abroad.
People abroad don't accept RMB. At this time, foreign exchange will be used.
If you can't figure it out, think about why the law stipulates that each person cannot carry more than 31.25 grams of gold when leaving the country. Taking gold away doesn't seem to affect foreign exchange.
#阿根廷总统MEME币争议 #开通交易实盘认证 #地缘政治对比特币的影响 $BTC $ETH $XRP
In 2017, I thought of a question.
The country controls foreign exchange so strictly every day. A group of people who deal in currency buy BTC on one side and turn it into USD to go abroad, and the country can't control it at all.
Can such a thing that poses a huge threat to foreign exchange control be allowed to exist?
Everyone knows what happened later.
Virtual currency trading was banned on September 30, 2017.
Some people in the comment area said that the country's foreign exchange did not decrease during this process, so there was no impact.
When the amount is small, it has no impact, but when the amount is large, more BTC held in China is sold abroad, and someone must buy back BTC from abroad.
People abroad don't accept RMB. At this time, foreign exchange will be used.
If you can't figure it out, think about why the law stipulates that each person cannot carry more than 31.25 grams of gold when leaving the country. Taking gold away doesn't seem to affect foreign exchange.
#阿根廷总统MEME币争议 #开通交易实盘认证 #地缘政治对比特币的影响 $BTC $ETH $XRP
Regarding the sharp drop in the early hours of October 26th Beijing time, there are claims that USDT was sanctioned (the Wall Street Journal personally stirred up old rumors), and others say it was due to Israel's attack on Iran (the timing matches, but the impact does not), as well as various other FUD voices.
All of this seems more like buildup before a surge.
Over the years, we should be accustomed to the importance of judging the fundamental trends. Unless it's a black swan event on the level of a (fake) pandemic, general disruptive factors are minor ripples, secondary. Major fundamentals like halving, interest rate cuts, and ETFs are decisive.
Fake news from the media and statements made by large institutions for their own interests may sometimes create short-term effects, such as severe fluctuations for one or two quarters, but we must not forget the larger direction.
Similarly, various financial markets have long been battlegrounds of unrestricted warfare, where powerful news creators (like shareholder meetings, regulatory bodies, and insider trading) can produce completely opposite guiding narratives for profit. We must keep our eyes wide open.
All of this seems more like buildup before a surge.
Over the years, we should be accustomed to the importance of judging the fundamental trends. Unless it's a black swan event on the level of a (fake) pandemic, general disruptive factors are minor ripples, secondary. Major fundamentals like halving, interest rate cuts, and ETFs are decisive.
Fake news from the media and statements made by large institutions for their own interests may sometimes create short-term effects, such as severe fluctuations for one or two quarters, but we must not forget the larger direction.
Similarly, various financial markets have long been battlegrounds of unrestricted warfare, where powerful news creators (like shareholder meetings, regulatory bodies, and insider trading) can produce completely opposite guiding narratives for profit. We must keep our eyes wide open.
The fud sentiment in the market comes and goes. They say there is no bull market anymore, complain that VC coins are different from the previous two rounds, and are just for profit. They also say that animal MEME is worthless.
Don’t listen to the nonsense, remember what Livermore said, just find the direction of least resistance.
Don’t listen to the nonsense, remember what Livermore said, just find the direction of least resistance.
Login to explore more contents