This morning, global markets experienced a textbook-style indiscriminate sell-off (Sell-everything). This is not merely a fluctuation of emotions, but a significant shift in asset allocation triggered by the falsification of macro expectations. The following breaks down the underlying logic of this crash from a professional perspective.
1. The break in valuation anchors: from AI premium to panic over capital expenditure
For a long time, the pricing cornerstone of global risk assets has been the expectation that AI will bring about an explosion in productivity. However, Microsoft's earnings report released this morning officially declared the end of the AI honeymoon period.
Firstly, the marginal effect of capital expenditure is diminishing. Microsoft's single-quarter $37.5 billion CapEx (capital expenditure) is like a black hole consuming cash flow, yet the revenue growth of Azure cloud services has not soared accordingly.
Secondly, the reshaping of valuation logic. The market is beginning to reevaluate AI from a growth engine to a heavy burden. When the Nasdaq, the global asset pricing anchor, undergoes drastic displacement, all high β (Beta) assets worldwide will sense the shock, which is the underlying force behind this morning's sharp drop.
2. On-chain liquidation games: Credit squeeze triggered by Tether's reallocation.
The collapse of the crypto market this morning is essentially a collapse of confidence in collateral.
According to on-chain monitoring, stablecoin giant Tether announced it would shift part of its reserves to physical gold, which technically signals that stablecoin issuers are actively reducing their exposure to risks in digital assets.
This action directly led to Bitcoin breaking below the key bullish defense line of $88,000, subsequently triggering the liquidation red line of on-chain lending protocols such as Aave and Compound. The $1 billion liquidation amount is not merely a sell-off, but rather a liquidity black hole triggered by algorithmic forced liquidation. In a situation of liquidity exhaustion, price declines are often cost-agnostic.
3. Systemic failure of macro hedging logic.
The market is currently in the most dangerous phase: safe-haven assets and risk assets are under simultaneous pressure.
Affected by the Trump administration's tough geopolitical policies, the dollar index has been forcibly boosted, squeezing the survival space of all non-U.S. assets. The rise and fall of gold this morning reflects that large hedge funds, facing margin calls in the stock market and cryptocurrency, had to liquidate the most liquid asset, gold, to cover losses. This is a typical liquidity squeeze.
Judgment: Has this wave bottomed out?
From a professional perspective, the clearing has not yet been completely finished, and three core indicators must be monitored to judge the bottom:
First, the mean reversion of the VIX index (fear index). Currently, volatility is still rising, and the market has not yet entered a period of low-volume consolidation after complete despair.
Second, the deviation of the MVRV ratio. The on-chain BTC MVRV index is approaching the 1.0 defense line, and only when the cost price of short-term holders is thoroughly breached will a technical bottom emerge.
Third, the stability of U.S. Treasury yields. Before U.S. Treasuries can effectively absorb safe-haven funds, the bleed-out state of risk assets is difficult to reverse.
Conclusion: This is a belated action of valuation bubble squeeze. The market is still in the process of finding a new equilibrium point before the AI narrative reconstruction and geopolitical risks materialize. Maintaining a low position at this time is the most basic respect for the principal.