I believe this is the bottom of this semester.

In the monthly chart, we completed 4 months of decline. In BTC, we only had 4 consecutive months of decline in 2 situations; during the crypto winter of 2018 and in 2012. In the last one, we limited ourselves to 3 consecutive months. We have never had 5. So it is quite unlikely (but not impossible) that the month of February will be a drop.

We will have the closing at the minimum today and, when this happens, almost always the next one will be up (although a rise to 69k next month would not invalidate this).

Comparing with the movement of other cycles, the first wave of winter is slower (phases of denial/complacency), followed by a correction of 3 to 5 months (which I did in yellow on the right edge).

Following this are the phases of anger/capitulation that end the winter, which is where the price really drops. It follows shortly after the bulls get excited with the rise (I believe around July-August).