Rafael Melo Photographer from Brazil

🚨🤝 USA x IRAN: TALKS AHEAD

🇮🇷🇺🇸 According to information, the United States and Iran are expected to hold in-person talks in the coming days.

✔️The move indicates an attempt at de-escalation after days of military tension and harsher rhetoric🎆😇

🚨📆 ECONOMIC AGENDA: TODAY (02/02)

⚠️ Important day for the American industry, with several data points concentrated in the middle of the day.

⏰11h45: Industrial PMI (Jan)
📊Proj: 51.9 | Ant: 51.8

⏰12h00: ISM Industrial PMI (Jan)
📊Proj: 48.5 | Ant: 47.9

Above 50 indicates expansion of industrial activity.

⏰14h30: Bostic Speech (FOMC)

Any comments on interest rates or inflation may generate volatility👍🤕

Bitcoin drops below US$ 76 million from the cost base of Strategy in a liquidation event of US$ 2 billion in the market

Who blinked? BTC drops below US$ 76.000.

🚨 URGENT

Here is the reason for the sharp drop in Bitcoin at this moment:

KRAKEN SOLD 14,000 BTC
COINBASE SOLD 7,083 BTC
WINTERMUTE SOLD 6,669 BTC
INSIDERS SOLD 5,335 BTC

They just dumped US$ 2.8 billion during the low liquidity period over the weekend.

This is coordinated manipulation!
Will it be?

FIGHT of big people!
Let's accumulate BITCOIN!
The President of the USA, Donald Trump, said this Saturday (31) that the United States would respond significantly if Canada proceeds with the trade agreement negotiated with China. "We do not want China to dominate Canada. And if they make the agreement they are wanting to make, China will dominate Canada," he said during a conversation with journalists aboard Air Force One.

Last week, Trump stated that he would impose tariffs of 100% on Canada if the country finalized a trade agreement with China.

🔥 Over US$ 1 BILLION in long positions was liquidated in just 3 hours

⚠️ High leverage + extreme volatility = domino effect in the market.

🚨😱 LIQUIDATIONS IN THE CRYPTO MARKET

☠️⚰️ US$ 1,5 BILLION in long positions (buys) have been liquidated in the last 24 hours.

🐻 Excess leverage + price drop = forced cleaning in the market.

⚠️ This movement usually:

✅Reduces leverage
✅Increases volatility
✅Opens space for stabilization after the panic

The market remains sensitive to macro and geopolitical news👀

I believe this is the bottom of this semester.

In the monthly chart, we completed 4 months of decline. In BTC, we only had 4 consecutive months of decline in 2 situations; during the crypto winter of 2018 and in 2012. In the last one, we limited ourselves to 3 consecutive months. We have never had 5. So it is quite unlikely (but not impossible) that the month of February will be a drop.

We will have the closing at the minimum today and, when this happens, almost always the next one will be up (although a rise to 69k next month would not invalidate this).

Comparing with the movement of other cycles, the first wave of winter is slower (phases of denial/complacency), followed by a correction of 3 to 5 months (which I did in yellow on the right edge).

Following this are the phases of anger/capitulation that end the winter, which is where the price really drops. It follows shortly after the bulls get excited with the rise (I believe around July-August).

🚨😱 TRUMP CHOOSES THE NEW HEAD OF THE FED

🤑💰 Donald Trump has officially appointed Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell.

🤔 Important detail: Warsh has had direct involvement with the crypto market. He was an angel investor in sector projects, such as the algorithmic stablecoin Basis.

He also invested in Bitwise, one of the first managers to launch Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.🚀

😰👀 Summary: new head of the Fed with a background in crypto. The market will be keeping an eye on the next steps👀

🚨🚀 CRYPTO PROJECT APPROVED

🛍 The US Senate committee approved the Crypto Market Structure Bill.

👍😲 The bill defines clearer rules for the crypto market and advances the regulatory process.

✔️It is an important step towards regulatory clarity in the US.

They just forgot to notify Bitcoin 😂

🚨🏦 FED DECISION CONFIRMED

🫡 The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly as the market expected.

🤑💰 The vote was not unanimous, but the level of dissent decreased, indicating a sign of greater internal consensus at the Fed.

👀 Now the total focus is:

✅On the tone of the statement
✅On Powell's press conference
✅On hints about when cuts will begin

✔️Dollar, interest rates, stocks, and crypto react from here. Attention to the next movements💵😂

🚨✍️ PRINCIPAL MESSAGE FROM POWELL TODAY

🎤🧐 Powell stated that the Fed's monetary policy is close to neutral, perhaps still slightly restrictive.

✔️ This means that the Fed feels comfortable deciding meeting by meeting, fully guided by the economic data that comes out.

🧠 Simple translation:
Nothing pre-defined, no rush to change interest rates, and everything will depend on inflation, employment, and activity.

For the market, it is a neutral speech, with no clear signal of cuts or tightening, more of the same☝️

🚨😱 ATTENTION: JAPAN IN CRISIS + FED PANICKING = INTERVENTION IN THE YEN

😄 Japan may intervene in the yen in the coming days. And this is not just about exchange rates, it's about liquidity.

✔️The yen is the cheapest currency in the world, meaning investors borrow yen at almost zero interest and use that money to buy stocks, bonds, and crypto.

⚠️When Japan steps in to defend the yen, that cheap money disappears quickly.

🐻Trades need to be unwound in a hurry. The usual effect is:

✅Sale of risky assets
✅Pressure on Treasuries
✅Interest rates rise
✅Liquidity dries up

Crypto feels it first and more intensely because it is the market most sensitive to liquidity 😠😰

If there is a coordinated intervention with the Fed, the initial impact can be volatile and aggressive.

But this also means more dollars in the system later... 👀

Man, you guys who are more familiar with the regulation of crypto and everything else.
If I buy from a foreign exchange, then when I sell, if I transfer to a Brazilian exchange first, am I still exempt up to 35k?

🚨🛍 SAYLOR CONTINUES BUYING BITCOIN

🤑💰Michael Saylor bought another 2.932 BTC last week, at an average price of US$ 90.061 (US$ 264 million)

⚠️There were no purchases today

With this, the Strategy now holds 712.647 BTC (US$ 62.5 billion)😏💭

The company's average purchase price is US$ 76.037😂

🚨😱RISK OF US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SOARS

💔Forecast markets indicate 77% chance of new shutdown by January 31.

⚠️As we have seen, what can happen:

✅Budget negotiations stalled
✅Funding for key agencies at risk
✅Economic data blackout, with delays or suspension of official indicators

The question is: is the traditional market pricing this in? 👀

Owen Gunden, holder of Bitcoin since 2011, sold all of his 11,000 BTC, totaling US$ 1.3 billion. One of the first major investors in Bitcoin is out of the game!👀

🚨🤔 Relevant movement in the US debt market

🛍 ABP, the largest pension fund in the Netherlands, sold US$ 12 billion in American Treasuries in the last 12 months.

📉 European capital begins to reduce exposure to US debt, albeit gradually.

Meanwhile, alternative and scarce assets are gaining attention on the institutional radar💵😏

🚨🏦UBS opens the doors to Bitcoin

🤑💰UBS, with approximately US$ 6 TRILLION under management, announced that it will start offering Bitcoin and crypto trading to its clients.

🛍 This does not mean an immediate influx of trillions, but rather direct institutional access within the traditional banking system.

Another clear sign: crypto has ceased to be an alternative and has become a global financial product💵😂

🇺🇸💸 More than US$ 1.3 trillion have been lost in the US stock market today.