#BTC何时反弹？ Technical Support Level: If the price holds within the $72,000-$74,000 range (recent accumulation zone and miner cost line), it may trigger a technical rebound. If it effectively breaks below $70,000, further downside risk should be cautioned.

Macro Policy: The Federal Reserve's February interest rate decision (February 6) may release dovish signals, potentially driving a recovery in risk assets; in addition, if the legislative progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act becomes clearer, it may alleviate regulatory uncertainties.

Capital Flow: If spot ETFs continue to see net inflows (such as over $500 million in a single day) or whales increase their holdings (like the MicroStrategy model), this could become a catalyst for a rebound.

Time Window: Technical indicators show that if the price stabilizes in the $72,000-$74,000 range and a "Stop Hunt" (rapid rise after a false breakout) occurs, it may initiate a rebound; if the Federal Reserve's policy does not exacerbate selling pressure after implementation, the probability of a rebound will significantly increase. In the short term, pay attention to the non-farm payroll data on February 6 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on February 13, which may disturb market sentiment.

In summary, Bitcoin may experience a phase rebound in late February, but caution is warranted regarding the volatility risks brought by tightening macro liquidity and fluctuating market sentiment.