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#特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 President Trump has repeatedly expressed his strong support for cryptocurrency, emphasizing that the United States must maintain its leading position in the global cryptocurrency space. At the 2026 Davos Forum, he declared that new cryptocurrency legislation would open a 'new path to financial freedom' and promote the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Since taking office in 2025, Trump has signed the 'Genius Act' to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, signed executive orders to promote the construction of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and appointed several industry supporters to key government positions. His family has profited over $1.4 billion within a year through business operations related to cryptocurrency projects like WLFI tokens and TrumpCoin, with related assets accounting for 20% of the family's total wealth. Despite facing allegations of conflicts of interest, Trump still claims to be 'possibly the person who speaks the most for cryptocurrency,' believing that the development of cryptocurrency is crucial to national competitiveness, or else the country will fall behind competitors like China.

#加密市场回调 Recently, the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market have intensified. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have quickly retraced from their highs, with a daily drop exceeding 5%. The main reason for this round of correction is the concentration of short-term profit-taking, coupled with rising expectations of regulatory tightening in some countries. From a technical perspective, this is a normal adjustment after an upward trend and has not altered the long-term upward trajectory. Investors need to view fluctuations rationally, focus on the fundamentals of the projects, avoid chasing highs and panic selling, and manage their positions reasonably.

#BTC何时反弹？ Technical Support Level: If the price holds within the $72,000-$74,000 range (recent accumulation zone and miner cost line), it may trigger a technical rebound. If it effectively breaks below $70,000, further downside risk should be cautioned.

Macro Policy: The Federal Reserve's February interest rate decision (February 6) may release dovish signals, potentially driving a recovery in risk assets; in addition, if the legislative progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act becomes clearer, it may alleviate regulatory uncertainties.

Capital Flow: If spot ETFs continue to see net inflows (such as over $500 million in a single day) or whales increase their holdings (like the MicroStrategy model), this could become a catalyst for a rebound.

Time Window: Technical indicators show that if the price stabilizes in the $72,000-$74,000 range and a "Stop Hunt" (rapid rise after a false breakout) occurs, it may initiate a rebound; if the Federal Reserve's policy does not exacerbate selling pressure after implementation, the probability of a rebound will significantly increase. In the short term, pay attention to the non-farm payroll data on February 6 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on February 13, which may disturb market sentiment.

In summary, Bitcoin may experience a phase rebound in late February, but caution is warranted regarding the volatility risks brought by tightening macro liquidity and fluctuating market sentiment.

#美国PPI数据高于预期 US PPI data for December 2025 exceeded expectations, rising by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%), and increasing by 3% year-on-year; core PPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month (previous value 0%), and reached 3.3% year-on-year, all higher than market expectations. The breakdown shows that service costs have risen significantly, with trade profit margins experiencing the highest month-on-month increase since mid-2024, primarily driven by wholesale profit margins for machinery and equipment; although commodity prices remained stable overall due to a drop in energy, core commodities (such as home appliances and construction machinery) are still accelerating in price. Analysis indicates that companies are passing on tariff cost pressures through the supply chain, which may drive up consumer inflation in the coming months. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in December and emphasizing economic stability, PPI data may intensify market concerns about inflation persistence, affecting future interest rate decision-making paths.

#下任美联储主席会是谁？ According to current market forecasts and the dynamics of the Trump administration, the most popular candidate for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve is Rick Rieder, the Chief Bond Investment Manager at BlackRock. As of January 24, 2026, his election probability on the prediction platform Polymarket has surged to 54%, far exceeding former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (26%) and current Governor Christopher Waller (11%). Rieder has received positive feedback from the bond market for advocating to lower the federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%, and for supporting dovish policies such as pausing balance sheet reduction, making him a favored candidate for the Senate confirmation process as an 'outsider.' Trump plans to announce the nomination around January 28, before or after the Davos Forum, and he has recently expressed being 'impressed' with Rieder after an interview. Other candidates, such as White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, have dropped out of the race as their probabilities fell to 6%.

#美联储维持利率不变 The Federal Reserve announced on January 28, 2026, that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This is the first pause following three consecutive rate cuts in 2025, primarily due to persistent inflation (December CPI year-on-year 2.7%) and a labor market that is stronger than expected (unemployment rate 4.4%). Although December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, the economy continues to show steady expansion, with GDP growth revised up to 4.4%. During the vote, board members Milan and Waller opposed, advocating for a 25 basis point cut. The statement removed the phrase "downside risks to employment," indicating a more optimistic view of the economic outlook. The market expects the possibility of two rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially occurring after the new chairman takes office in June.

#黄金比特币联动行情能走多远？ The linkage between gold and Bitcoin's market dynamics may persist, requiring a comprehensive assessment of both their attributes and market environment. In the long term, both are viewed as 'anti-inflation assets,' showing a trend of concurrent increases during periods of macro liquidity easing and heightened geopolitical risks (for example, the 2024 Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations driving BTC and gold to simultaneously break historical highs). However, the short-term differentiation is significant: gold relies on central bank reserves and institutional credibility, exhibiting low volatility (annualized around 15%), and is more defensive during extreme liquidity tightening or financial system turmoil; Bitcoin, on the other hand, is driven by market sentiment, ETF fund flows, and other factors, with volatility reaching 50%-80%, showing high Beta characteristics. Currently, gold is at a historical high due to the trend of 'de-dollarization' and central bank accumulation, while Bitcoin is in a correction phase constrained by ETF fund outflows and interest rate trade unwinding. If global supply chain reshaping deepens in the future, gold may continue its safe-haven logic, while Bitcoin needs to overcome regulatory disturbances and technical selling pressure, with the linkage between the two dynamically changing with macro narratives. Investors should pay attention to the emotional transmission of gold's 'parabolic rise' to Bitcoin but remain cautious of short-term divergence risks due to liquidity cycle shifts.

In January #美国伊朗对峙 , the confrontation between the United States and Iran continued to escalate. The United States dispatched the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into Middle Eastern waters, deploying F-15E fighter jets and missile defense systems to establish military deterrence against Iran. Iran, in turn, raised large anti-American propaganda posters depicting scenes of U.S. aircraft carriers being attacked and warned that if attacked, it would strike U.S. military bases and Israel. Trump stated that a fleet 'larger than that of Venezuela' had been assembled, while also indicating that diplomacy remained an option but emphasized that 'no military action is ruled out.' Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei entered a fortified bunker, and the military announced a state of full alert, stating that they were 'ready to pull the trigger' at any moment. The United Nations Security Council's emergency consultations were unsuccessful, with countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia calling for restraint, but the regional tensions had already led to the closure of shipping lanes and fluctuations in oil prices. The focal points of the standoff include the Iranian nuclear issue, regional influence, and U.S. interference in Iranian domestic affairs, with the potential for conflict to spiral out of control, possibly triggering regional war and a global energy crisis.

#美股七巨头财报 2025 The financial reports of the 'Seven Giants' in the US stock market for the year 2023 showed a divergence: Microsoft (Azure cloud revenue increased by 40%), Meta (advertising revenue increased by 21%), and Apple (iPhone sales rebounded) performed steadily, with net profits increasing by 12%, 36%, and 7% respectively; Amazon (AWS growth rate of 19%) and Alphabet (cloud business growth rate slowed to 30%) faced market skepticism due to a surge in capital expenditures (over $300 billion in total); Tesla's net profit plummeted by 71% year-on-year, making it the only company with both revenue and profit declines. The common challenges in the industry are highlighted: an explosive increase in investment in AI infrastructure (Microsoft, Meta's capital expenditures expected to reach $80 billion and $70 billion by 2026) but limited short-term returns, compounded by the impact of DeepSeek's low-cost technology and geopolitical trade frictions, the valuation logic for tech stocks is shifting from 'growth narrative' to 'profit verification'.

#Grayscale submits BNB ETF application Recently, leading global digital asset management firm Grayscale submitted a BNB ETF application to the SEC, attracting market attention. BNB, as the core token of the Binance ecosystem, carries multiple values such as trading fee discounts and ecological rights. If approved, it will push BNB into the mainstream institutional asset allocation view, enhance liquidity and compliance attributes, and may become another milestone in the institutionalization process of crypto assets. Currently, BNB is reported at XX dollars, and the market is waiting for regulatory feedback.

#美国伊朗如何影响市场 The situation between the U.S. and Iran escalates, impacting global markets through energy and supply chains. Geopolitical tensions are driving up oil price premiums, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt 20% of global oil transportation, increasing the risk of supply shortages. Iran, as a major source of methanol imports for China (accounting for 6.42%), may see the conflict affect the chemical supply chain. At the same time, safe-haven sentiment is pushing gold and silver prices to historic highs, with risks spilling over into the metals market. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Iran and increased military deployments, further exacerbating market volatility expectations.

#美国加密市场法案延迟 The U.S. Senate Banking Committee was originally scheduled to review the Digital Asset Market Clear Act (CLARITY Act) on January 15, 2026, but was forced to postpone due to the withdrawal of support from cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, but the core controversy centers around the stablecoin yield restriction clause: prohibiting exchanges from providing interest rewards for users holding stablecoins, which directly impacts Coinbase's annual revenue model of $1.4 billion from interest. Traditional banks are concerned that such operations constitute 'high-yield savings', while the crypto industry argues that these restrictions will weaken DeFi competitiveness and result in the U.S. regulatory framework lagging behind overseas markets. The Senate Agriculture Committee version of the Digital Commodity Intermediary Act focuses on the CFTC's regulation of the spot market, but there are still disagreements between the two parties regarding the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and the thresholds for tokenized securities. The delay of the bill may result in the U.S. being one of the few major markets lacking clear crypto regulatory rules by 2026, and the price of Bitcoin has already fallen back to around $95,000 as a result.

The World Economic Forum in Davos took place from January 19 to 23, #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 2 in Switzerland, with the theme "Spirit of Dialogue", attracting nearly 3,000 political and business leaders from more than 130 countries, setting a record for government participation. China's Vice Premier proposed four points advocating strong support for free trade and the maintenance of multilateralism at the forum, emphasizing that China will continue to inject stability into global growth. This forum focused on the large-scale application of AI technology, with executives from companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA discussing the impact of AI on economic restructuring, pointing out that AI is deeply integrating into fields such as healthcare and manufacturing, but caution is needed regarding the risk of technology bubbles. Geopolitical confrontation has been listed as a primary global risk, with intense clashes between the US and Europe over trade disputes, and French President Macron calling for the construction of a "New Independent Europe." During the forum, the "Global Lighthouse Network" report was also released, adding 16 new Chinese "lighthouse factories", showcasing the achievements of smart manufacturing transformation.

#下任美联储主席会是谁？ As of January 21, 2026, the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has not yet been finalized, but the main candidates are concentrated on the following four:

Kevin Hassett (Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers): A core aide to Trump, advocating for significant interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but the market is concerned that his close relationship with Trump may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Chris Waller (Federal Reserve Governor): A representative of the dovish camp, supports gradual interest rate cuts, and is seen as a candidate with stronger independence due to maintaining distance from Trump's core circle.

Kevin Warsh (Former Federal Reserve Governor): A conservative economist who has recently become a strong competitor; Trump has said that "interest rates should be much lower."

Rick Rieder (BlackRock Executive): Advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts to 3%, but lacks experience in the Federal Reserve, making his chances of selection lower.

Trump has stated that he will announce the nominee in early 2026, subject to Senate approval. Currently, Waller and Warsh are seen as the candidates with higher probabilities, and the market is closely watching the impact of the final candidate on the path of monetary policy.

#Strategy增持比特币 Strategy's aggressive investment strategy is both a bet on the long-term value of Bitcoin by enterprises and a reflection of the evolution of the capital market's understanding of crypto assets. Its success depends on two core factors: whether the price of Bitcoin can break through the narrative of inflation hedging, and whether the corporate capital structure can withstand cyclical fluctuations. If both continue to positively cycle, it may lead more traditional institutions to restructure their asset allocation logic.

#美国核心CPI低于预期 In December 2025, the core CPI in the United States rose by 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.7%. The month-on-month growth rate of 0.2% also fell short of expectations, indicating a continued trend of cooling inflation. Housing costs remain the main driver, increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, while food prices saw a narrower month-on-month increase of 0.7% (with beef shortages and a sharp drop in egg prices offsetting some pressure). Energy prices rose slightly by 0.3% month-on-month. Core commodity prices showed zero growth month-on-month, and price fluctuations in tariff-sensitive categories such as used cars and clothing have eased, reflecting that the effects of tariffs are weaker than expected. After the data was released, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April rose to 42%. However, short-term policy remains cautious due to the stickiness of housing inflation and resilience in the labor market. Institutions generally believe that inflation in 2026 may show a pattern of 'high first, low later', with the timing of rate cuts possibly postponed to the second quarter.

#美国核心CPI低于预期 In December 2025, the core CPI in the United States rose by 2.6% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations, indicating a continued trend of easing inflation. Housing costs (month-on-month +0.4%) remain a major driving factor, but food prices rose by +0.7% month-on-month and energy prices rebounded (month-on-month +0.3%), showing price stickiness. After the data was released, the market increased the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in April to 42%, but the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the January policy meeting reached 95%. Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for more evidence to confirm the sustained decline in inflation, and sticky components like housing may delay the pace of rate cuts. Although short-term expectations for rate cuts are warming, political intervention risks (such as Powell facing a criminal investigation) and the transmission effects of tariffs may exacerbate future inflation volatility.

#MSCI暂不排除数字资产财库公司 MSCI announced on January 7, 2026, that it will not remove Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs) from the global investable market index for the time being, maintaining the current index handling approach. This decision is based on further research needs regarding the definition of 'investment companies' versus 'operating enterprises,' especially concerning companies where digital assets like Bitcoin account for more than 50% of total assets. MSCI pointed out that additional assessment standards, such as financial statements, need to be introduced, but adjustments to share quantities and inclusion factors will be postponed at this stage. Related companies, represented by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), saw their stock prices rise sharply, with an intraday increase exceeding 6%. The market believes this move alleviates the risk of passive fund sell-offs, but MSCI emphasized that broader consultations may be initiated in the future to reassess the index eligibility of non-operating companies.

#美国核心CPI低于预期 In December 2025, the core CPI in the United States rose by 2.6% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, both below market expectations, marking the lowest level since 2021. The decline in energy prices (gasoline down 3.4% year-on-year) offset the sticky pressures from housing costs (up 0.4% month-on-month) and food (up 3.1% year-on-year). After the data was released, the US dollar index briefly fell, and traders raised the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April from 38% to 42%. Despite the cooling inflation, Federal Reserve officials still emphasized the need for more evidence to confirm the downward trend, with the current policy rate close to neutral levels, and the probability of maintaining rates in January reaching 97.2%. Housing costs account for more than one-third of the CPI weight, and their slow decline has become a key obstacle in the 'last mile' of inflation.

#美国民主党BlueVault The BlueVault cryptocurrency fundraising platform, launched by the U.S. Democratic Party in January 2026, aims to attract crypto voters by supporting Bitcoin and USDC donations, addressing voter loss following the 2024 presidential election defeat. Founded by former military member Will Schweitzer, the platform emphasizes compliance and follows the regulatory framework of the GENIUS Act, enabling campaigns to accept digital asset donations. Unlike Fairshake, supported by the Republican Party, BlueVault focuses on small-scale fundraising and grassroots engagement, enhancing transparency through automated Federal Election Commission (FEC) reporting and托管 payment channels, aiming to bridge the gap between the party and crypto supporters. This move is seen as a key strategy for the Democratic Party to rebuild its political influence in the cryptocurrency space.