$BTC Today I see that the mood for entering the spot market in the square is very high, and I must pour some cold water on this.
First of all, last night at 75600 was actually just 1100 points away from the 74500 on April 7, while the real support is at 74500. Once 74500 is broken, the lower levels are 66800 (2024/11/05, U.S. Election Day), 65000, 58000, 55000, and 52500.
From the weekly chart, it can be seen that the trend has some similarities to 2022 (btc market analysis this week 1/19). There is a chance for the market to reach 66800, and the lower Bollinger Band support on the monthly chart is at 55000. This is currently a basic analysis combining some candlesticks and historical support points below 74500.
From the indicators, currently, the weekly and daily indicators do not show signs of upward momentum. The mid-term indicators also do not indicate a need for a pullback and rise. At this time, I feel it is too early to enter the spot market; we must wait for mid to long-term indicators to show bullish signals before considering entering the spot market, rather than rushing in, which seems too shortsighted!
I must emphasize: if you really want to buy in the spot market, it’s not impossible. After all, you can just wait through the seasons and the test of time, and one day it will return; that is your personal freedom. I have nothing to say. But anyone who wants to lay out in the spot market with low leverage now is making an extremely foolish choice. If 74500 is truly broken, where will the future bottom be? We still need to look at the indicators week by week. You have more money than you can afford to lose, even risking a margin call!
Anyway, from the current perspective, I am not optimistic about a pullback and rise. It's either range-bound or a continued sell-off. As for the upward trend, based on the current indicators, there’s no chance at all!
I am optimistic about breaking below 74500 to go to 73000, followed by a range-bound movement below 74500, and then it will still go down again! 🤭🤭🤭