Professional Analysis on Gold Valuation and Bitcoin Narratives
Summary: Recent market discussions have intensified regarding whether gold has entered a valuation bubble and whether Bitcoin can serve as a substitute for 'digital gold.' This report outlines the core bullish and bearish logic, the latest supporting data, and institutional viewpoints for decision-making reference.
1. Gold Valuation: Bullish and Bearish Debate Under Historical Extremes
1. Main Bearish Viewpoint ('Valuation Bubble Theory')
· Core Logic: The ratio of the total market value of gold to the global broad money supply (M2) is nearing the historical peak seen during the 1980 oil crisis, indicating that valuations are at extreme levels.
· Historical Reference: Similar 'parabolic' rises often occur in times of pressure on monetary systems (e.g., during the hyperinflation of the 1970s, the Great Depression).