Professional Analysis on Gold Valuation and Bitcoin Narratives
Summary: Recent market discussions have intensified regarding whether gold has entered a valuation bubble and whether Bitcoin can serve as a substitute for 'digital gold.' This report outlines the core bullish and bearish logic, the latest supporting data, and institutional viewpoints for decision-making reference. 1. Gold Valuation: Bullish and Bearish Debate Under Historical Extremes 1. Main Bearish Viewpoint ('Valuation Bubble Theory') · Core Logic: The ratio of the total market value of gold to the global broad money supply (M2) is nearing the historical peak seen during the 1980 oil crisis, indicating that valuations are at extreme levels.
· Historical Reference: Similar 'parabolic' rises often occur in times of pressure on monetary systems (e.g., during the hyperinflation of the 1970s, the Great Depression).
Due to severe global supply shortages, China's two major storage chip manufacturers, Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies, have launched the largest expansion plan in history, aiming to narrow the gap with international leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix.
As China's largest DRAM manufacturer, Changxin Storage is building a new factory in Shanghai, with additional capacity expected to reach two to three times that of its Hefei headquarters. The factory is scheduled to begin equipment installation in the second half of 2026 and officially start production in 2027, with products covering server, PC, and automotive electronics fields. At the same time, the company is also expanding its HBM production line in Shanghai, targeting AI computing demand.
According to informed sources, Changxin Storage's two factories in Hefei and Beijing are already operating at full capacity, "Domestic demand is extremely strong, and the company hopes to expand production capacity as soon as possible."
China's leading NAND manufacturer, Yangtze Memory Technologies, is also building its third factory in Wuhan, with plans to start production in 2027.
It has been revealed that Yangtze Memory Technologies has clarified the production capacity planning for the new factory, with 50% of the capacity to be used for DRAM manufacturing in addition to producing NAND; it will also collaborate with local storage packaging companies to develop and produce HBM for artificial intelligence computing scenarios.
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