The market looks good at 73000. Tonight, the short position will first look at 76200 for profit. Forming a head and shoulders pattern. Aggressive light position at 75800-76000 for long positions. The market crashes to 72900, which is exactly the lowest point I see. Pullback at 765400 and 76800 for partial sell-off. Enter short at 76700, looking at 75000 and 74500.
First, the first wave of short positions at 78000 will definitely reach 76200. Of course, there are also partial layouts of short positions from the night before yesterday, which are also gaining profit at this moment.
Secondly, at 96000 points, there are no signs of pullback and rise in the hourly and 4-hour indicators, but the 4-hour Bollinger Bands pattern and the historical support of the candlestick along with the head and shoulders neckline pattern suggest that the market cannot drop further, unless it breaks through the lower Bollinger Band. However, the lower band pattern is there, and the market still needs to recover. This belongs to a medium-term recovery pattern, but most of the time it won't break, instead, it will approach and then break through the next day. I am optimistic about breaking 74500 to go to 73000, but not today. However, given the recent large fluctuations in the market and the medium-term indicators still looking bearish, with only the ultra-short-term indicators looking bullish and the 4-hour indicators giving me confidence, we choose to take a light and aggressive position.
In fact, we encountered behavior breaking through the horizontal lower Bollinger Band, but it does not affect its pullback and closing, and we managed to catch some. We got them in batches at 76400 and 76800. Not much meat, just enough to fill up.
Finally, there's the short position at 76700; this position is a steady profit one, no need to say much.
While accurate market analysis is certainly important, contracts are leveraged products facing unpredictable factors, so when operating, if there is a perception of risk with a potential for profit based on indicator understanding, one can choose an aggressive light position or use a stop-loss. This choice is made based on a specific analysis of the market situation at that time.
Last night until dawn, all three positions made a profit. Although we missed the drop from 76000 to 72900, at that time the shoulder at 75700 and the support level at 74500 were present, along with the manifestation of the 4-hour indicators, making it impossible to take a short position at 76000. It was either to take a light long position or give up this short. This is similar to February 1st, when it dropped from 84000 to 78000; we only took 78000 and gave up on 75600. But we successfully bottomed at 75600.
When playing with contracts, I still feel that understanding of indicators is greater than the information aspect, but the release of information can temporarily stimulate fluctuations in the market at that time.
The above is my analysis of some details regarding recent market operations, and I hope it helps you.