First, the price of BTC is not important; the range is what matters.
74,000–75,000 is not an emotional level, but a structural level: the lower corresponds to the vicinity of the 200-week moving average and the last round of institutional accumulation area, while the upper 82,200 is a dense region for short liquidations. This means that the current market is not a trending market but a range-driven game of liquidation. The caution in the options market also confirms that in the short term, no one is willing to pay a premium for direction.
Second, the weakness of ETH is not coincidental; it is a matter of funding logic.
ETH's decline is significantly greater than that of BTC, not because Vitalik is selling coins, but due to the combination of three factors:
1. Continuous net outflow of spot ETFs, with marginal buying disappearing;
2. ETH, as a high-β asset, is prioritized for recovery during the deleveraging phase;
3. The narrative side lacks short-term verifiable new demand.
This is a structural pressure under the retreat of risk appetite, not a single event impact.
Third, ETF inflows provide more information than price.
BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of 562 million in a single day, coinciding with 46% of the supply being at a loss, indicating that long-term capital has not systematically retreated. The market is falling, but capital is stratifying.
Now is the stage where positions are being educated, and the stage where narratives are being falsified.