Julie_

First, the price of BTC is not important; the range is what matters.
74,000–75,000 is not an emotional level, but a structural level: the lower corresponds to the vicinity of the 200-week moving average and the last round of institutional accumulation area, while the upper 82,200 is a dense region for short liquidations. This means that the current market is not a trending market but a range-driven game of liquidation. The caution in the options market also confirms that in the short term, no one is willing to pay a premium for direction.

Second, the weakness of ETH is not coincidental; it is a matter of funding logic.
ETH's decline is significantly greater than that of BTC, not because Vitalik is selling coins, but due to the combination of three factors:
1. Continuous net outflow of spot ETFs, with marginal buying disappearing;
2. ETH, as a high-β asset, is prioritized for recovery during the deleveraging phase;
3. The narrative side lacks short-term verifiable new demand.
This is a structural pressure under the retreat of risk appetite, not a single event impact.

Third, ETF inflows provide more information than price.
BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of 562 million in a single day, coinciding with 46% of the supply being at a loss, indicating that long-term capital has not systematically retreated. The market is falling, but capital is stratifying.
Now is the stage where positions are being educated, and the stage where narratives are being falsified.
#V神卖币

A decline does not indicate a misunderstanding; it only suggests that the positions were adjusted too quickly.

ETH has performed weaker, not because of a sudden deterioration in fundamentals, but because when risk appetite retreats, the market prioritizes recovering the more elastic parts; assets like SOL with high beta also play the same role.

Regarding exchanges, FUD, and policy news, they are merely amplifiers. What truly determines the next steps is still whether the US stock market stabilizes and when liquidity eases.

The real bottom has never been about discussing price, but rather about discussing time.
#BTC何时反弹？ #Strategy增持比特币

The essence of this round of decline is still the withdrawal of leverage and liquidity.
In the context of the cycle, this is a typical phase of defoaming to the stage of dispelling illusions. BTC returned to 76,000 – 78,000, which is a one-time correction of the market that previously exchanged time for space. It affects time more: compressing what should have been a slow correction into a period of high-intensity liquidation.
The weekend crash, the liquidation of 2 billion USD, and the emotional blame on Binance are essentially just the structure being overly reliant on leverage. The exchange is merely an amplifier.
The real risk has never been the decline, but rather that everyone thinks it won't decline again.
ETH has dropped even more severely, which is a natural result when risk appetite retreats; BTC remains a thermometer for macro emotional temperature; BNB, SOL, and XRP are more like liquidity pressure zones in this round. However, the actions of long-term funds are quite consistent; MicroStrategy has not changed its strategy, and the corporate BTC treasury has not hit the brakes.
When safe-haven assets are sought after, risk assets must first take a hit.
The real bear market is not when the decline is the most significant, but when no one discusses whether to bottom fish anymore.
#BTC何时反弹？

In the past few days, the market has retraced, and many people's first reaction is to look for bad news. But I believe the OGs will pay more attention to two things: whether the chips are shrinking and whether there is real behavior on-chain. Emotions will fluctuate, but the structure will leave traces.
MEET48 has done a solid job this time: 30% of the voting revenue from the second "MEET48 Best7: Stage of Light" has been destroyed, with 8,698,560 tokens $IDOL directly going into a black hole, verifiable on-chain. This is truly about writing the narrative into the ledger.
More importantly, this destruction is not an isolated event but is accompanied by a verifiable period of on-chain activity: 61,948 transactions over 7 days, 356,18 unique active wallets, ranked 1st in 24h UAW across BSC social dApps and 1st in BSC UAW for 7 days. From a trading perspective, the meaning of this data is simple; it’s not enough that people are talking about it, what matters is that people are using it.
In a cyclical view, it resembles construction actions during a period of attention return: the destruction (0.181% of total supply) affects chip density, leaning more towards quality; TXN/UAW affects the duration of attention, leaning more towards time.
The simultaneous appearance of both will prevent trading heat from being fleeting.
Destruction determines chips, and activity determines lifespan.
In the short term, narratives are observed, while in the long term, realization is key.
Looking at the 2026 roadmap, it essentially reinforces the closed loop of use-production-authorization-reallocation: ParoAI + MEET48.ai lowers the threshold for creation, making content production more routine; Auditions GO naturally brings high-frequency interactions and consumption scenarios; POChain is responsible for putting AIGC content on-chain for assetization paths for UGC outputs. For trading, this means the role of $IDOL is clearer; it is not just an emotional coin, but a universal fuel for participation and incentives within the ecosystem.
True strength is not about how beautiful one destruction is, but whether it can continue to be hot on-chain when the next event begins.
#IDOL

BTC fell to around 81,000. It's not negative news; it's a liquidity pullback + a leveraged self-ignition liquidation.
In the cycle: this is the de-bubbling phase, which affects the timing more, bringing the market back to a sustainable rhythm rather than immediately rewriting the long-term direction.
Bull and bear markets don't rely on shouting; they depend on the breathing of funds. The fuller the leverage, the more the pullback resembles a natural disaster.
BTC is a liquidity thermometer, ETH is a risk appetite amplifier, and AI coins are more like emotional leverage.
The more fear there is, the more one should first ask: whose positions are being washed this time.
#加密市场回调

#黄金 surged to 5400, the Federal Reserve neither dove nor hawked, and a single sentence from Powell brought market sentiment back to risk-off mode. BTC is being held down around 88k, ETH has returned below 3000, which is actually not surprising; at this stage, crypto is still seen as a risk asset in the macro perspective.

#TSLAUSDT Set an alarm, it will definitely rise a bit as soon as it starts.

Standard Chartered directly warns that by 2028, stablecoins may siphon off $500 billion in deposits from traditional banks.
Stablecoins have already begun to encroach on the banking fundamentals.
Instruments like USDT and USDC are no longer just trading intermediaries; they are becoming an invisible global dollar system. It's no wonder that banks and legislators are so anxious now.
#渣打银行预测

The market is cold, the sentiment is cold, and attention is subtly shifting.
BTC is hovering around 86–88k, ETH is fluctuating around 2800, not many want to push forward, but no one dares to short either.
After a wave of liquidations, the market enters a very typical phase: the main line is waiting for macro factors, while traffic first seeks stimulation.
You will find that when mainstream coins are stagnant, the market starts to become lively. Things like $RIVER , BYTE, and some small coins with AI+ narratives, when sentiment rises, it’s just one phrase: river, $我踏马来了 .
Is it familiar? During garbage time, it is often easiest to generate traffic, transactions, and sentiment.
#以太坊巨鲸异动

BTC has stepped into the 8 range, and ETH has broken 3000. Is it essentially a problem on the chain? I think not.

Gold is rising, yet BTC is being liquidated, which says it all.

What is truly worth pondering nowadays is not the price, but the misalignment of rhythms.

On one side, there is market fear, and options are buying protection; on the other side, the U.S. is advancing legislative structures for the crypto market, and the stablecoin bill has already been implemented, even discussing strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Short-term sentiment and long-term direction are clearly diverging.
#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁

Today's drop is very realistic.

Tariff threats, the Greenland controversy, and issues in the Japanese bond market have caused risk assets to be collectively hit, with BTC and ETH being the ones that were just casually smashed.

Gold has reached new highs, silver is soaring, while crypto is actually falling. This indicates that when macro conditions begin to spiral out of control, the market still views crypto as a risk asset, rather than a safe haven asset.

At least that's the case now.
#黄金白银价格创新高

Hehe, it's a trap $AIA

Recently, many people have noticed that Binance now supports USD withdrawals via SWIFT directly to banks, and the fees have dropped from $60 to $25. This is a significant benefit for those looking to withdraw funds legitimately, as the process is shorter, the risks are lower, and it resembles traditional finance.

However, the reality is that it won't make you pay more taxes, but it will make you more transparent. SWIFT is a standard banking channel, and CRS, anti-money laundering, and banking reporting systems all operate on this path. Once you are a tax resident of China, foreign cryptocurrency gains already fall under the scope of declaration; it's just that many people were not actually enforced before.

So the current change does not mean you suddenly have to pay taxes, but rather that the existing tax obligations are becoming easier to see.

Therefore, I understand that this feature is suitable for those who are preparing for the long term and following compliant routes; if you are still using the lucky thinking from 2021, you are just shifting risks to another place.

Previously, I also tried offline withdrawals in Hong Kong, and with a Hong Kong card, it was very convenient to deposit directly into the local card after withdrawing.

In short, there are many paths, cryptocurrency is maturing, and withdrawals are the same.
#加密市场观察

I'm quite curious, is posting job ads on X a great way to drive traffic?
A job offering a salary of a few hundred U can easily get tens of thousands of views.
The authenticity of the job is unknown for now, but in terms of the level of traffic attraction, it certainly achieves the effects of easily gaining followers or increasing attention for representative projects. However, whether the right candidate was ultimately hired is unknown, and this result cannot be verified.
I don't understand, but I envy it.
#加密市场观察

$AIA
This wave of increase is great! The contract must be opened for a long position, haha

I once saw a really interesting discussion about when it's appropriate to break things off. The best answer is: when you're ready to accept all the consequences.
So sometimes, when someone seeking cooperation encounters obstacles, instead of reflecting on their own issues or figuring out how to resolve them, they blindly blame the other party, eventually losing their composure and lashing out in anger. I can't help but wonder: is this staff member truly a fully autonomous individual? Have they clearly understood their own goals? The distinction between acting on impulse and considering the bigger picture seems blurred here. No matter the outcome, they just can't bear being wronged or insulted—they must retaliate with insults.
I ask you: if everyone in the market operated with this attitude, how many projects would truly stand out in the end?
Fortunately, most people are rational, and most adults are mature. When problems arise, they manage their emotions and focus on solving the issues. What else could possibly be troubling?
#加密市场观察

Listen to the interview with the founder peak before the sale of #Manus .
With background, strength, vision, and capital
Isn't that enough for certain profits?

Looking at Aptos' unlock: the market is no longer panicking and crashing at the mere mention of unlocks as it did two years ago. Instead, it feels more like a stress test. Whether it's projects, institutions, or retail investors, who truly has long-term commitment will be clear on the unlock day. By 2026, the market has clearly become immune to emotions.

Looking at ETH, with 1 million in corporate treasury staked, ETF applications advancing, and sentiment indicators recovering, it's gradually evolving into a foundational asset in crypto—quietly influential, yet indispensable. Whether it's going to rise or not is uncertain, but certainty is building.

XMR's surge is also highly symbolic. The fact that #隐私币 was picked up by funds precisely during a period when compliance and regulation were frequently discussed underscores a key message: as transparency and regulation increase, privacy itself becomes a rare commodity.

Some are waiting for a breakout, others for unlocks, and some are positioning ahead of regulatory implementation.

Today's rebound of BTC, to put it simply, is not a victory of technical patterns, but a victory of the real world.
The United States took direct action, and the situation in Venezuela changed suddenly; the market's first reaction was not to take sides, but to reprice risk. BTC surged to 93k, essentially voting on a question: geopolitical tensions are starting to spiral out of control, where should the money be placed?
What's even more interesting is the discussion around the "shadow BTC reserves of Venezuela." Whether the 600k BTC is real or not, this narrative itself is already very dangerous, with countries, sanctions, and Bitcoin being discussed at the same table for the first time.
This means that BTC is evolving from hedging against inflation to hedging against geopolitical risks.

The year 2026 has just begun, and the stakes on the table have clearly escalated.
#加密市场观察