📉 Core market dynamics
· Market performance: The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp V-shaped fluctuation overnight (from February 3 to the early morning of February 4). Bitcoin once dropped below $73,000, while Ethereum hit a low of $2,110. The market then rebounded somewhat, but overall it still showed a significant decline.
· Market sentiment: Risk appetite has significantly declined, linked to the sell-off of US tech stocks. Experts from VanEck point out that the market is currently in a 'bear market.'
· Key data: In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount across the entire cryptocurrency network has been enormous, exceeding $700 million, with nearly 170,000 people liquidated.
🔄 Intraday operational thoughts
· Short on rebounds
· Core logic: the main trend is clearly bearish, and the current rise is a technical rebound from an oversold condition ('dead cat bounce'), not a trend reversal.
· Key position: focus on the core resistance zone of $78,500-$79,000. Another analyst considers $78,300 and $79,300 as reference points for shorting on rebounds.
· Strategy suggestion: look for signs of stagnation near resistance levels and lightly position short; chasing highs is not recommended.
· Long at low levels
· Core logic: after a sharp overnight drop and bottoming out, there are signs of stability appearing in the Asian session's early market, with selling pressure releasing and buying entering.
· Key position: consider entering long in the $75,000-$75,500 range.
· Strategy suggestion: seize the short-term rebound repair market, targeting $77,000-$77,700.
⚖️ Summary and suggestions
Overall, the market is currently in a phase of severe volatility within a downtrend. Regarding operational thoughts, you need to make choices based on your own risk tolerance:
· Bearish strategy: relatively mainstream, suitable for trend-following traders. Patience is required to wait for the price to rebound to the aforementioned resistance zone and to consider trading when signs of weakening upward momentum appear.
· Bullish strategy: it involves counter-trend buying for a rebound, which carries higher risk and requires strict stop-loss discipline.
Regardless of the approach, strict position control is required, setting stop losses, and closely monitoring the attack and defense situation of the following key price levels: the resistance zone of Bitcoin at $78,500-$79,000, support near $75,000, and the previous low of $72,900. If the price effectively breaks below the previous low, it may initiate a new round of decline.