#全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产
The current fluctuations and downward trend may extend into the first half of 2026. The key to recovery lies in improving macro liquidity and alleviating internal market pressures.
Key factors for the continuation of the trend:
① Macro pressure: Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical issues, and potential AI bubble risks may continue to put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
② Internal market pressure: Ongoing selling by long-term holders and intermittent inflow of institutional funds have led to a “slow bleeding” type of spot selling pressure.
Potential signals and timing for recovery:
Most analysts believe the market is more likely to enter a “fluctuating bottoming” phase rather than a deep bear market. True trend recovery may require waiting for the following signals:
① Macro shift: The Federal Reserve releases clear easing signals, and global liquidity improves.
② Internal structural improvement: Bitcoin ETF resumes sustained net inflows, and new demand narratives emerge in the market (e.g., large-scale institutional allocations).
③ Price signals: Bitcoin price reaches a historic high, which can serve as a technical signal for the market to digest pressure and regain confidence.
Current market phase diagram outlines key stages and characteristics:
Phase One: Early 2026
· Main characteristics: May face a pullback
· Key drivers: Macro headwinds, market deleveraging
Phase Two: Throughout 2026 (higher probability path)
· Main characteristics: Fluctuating bottoming
· Key drivers: Tug-of-war between long and short factors, liquidity games
· Institutional viewpoint reference: Multiple institutions believe this is the most likely scenario, with BTC potentially fluctuating between $70,000 and $100,000.
Phase Three: Second half of 2026 and beyond
· Main characteristics: Trend recovery
· Key drivers: Shift in macro policies, new funds entering the market
· Institutional viewpoint reference: If conditions are met, the market may see a rebound by the end of the year.
Recommendations:
In the current environment, reduce short-term profit expectations and avoid using high leverage. Consider adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy on dips, while maintaining sufficient cash positions to cope with volatility.
#BTC何时反弹？ #BTC市场影响分析 $BTC
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