Crypto_心诚

#美国零售数据逊预期
What are the expectations for tonight's non-farm payrolls and their impact on cryptocurrencies?

Tonight (February 11) at 21:30, the U.S. January non-farm payrolls are in a state of "holding breath". The key is not the strength of the data itself, but whether there is an “unexpected” event that could change interest rate cut expectations.

① Regular data: Expected increase of 70,000 (previous value 50,000), unemployment rate at 4.4%. Goldman Sachs is more pessimistic (45,000), Citigroup expects 135,000, indicating significant divergence that could lead to violent fluctuations.

② Impact logic: Transmitting fire through the "dollar"
Non-farm payrolls transmit through “data → interest rate cut expectations → dollar → risk assets”. Currently, the market is only sensitive to “bad news”:

· If the data is significantly below expectations or is drastically revised downwards: solidifies recession fears, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts within the year will be completely ignited. The dollar will plunge, and expectations of improved liquidity will directly benefit risk assets (including Bitcoin).
· If the data exceeds expectations and is strong: short-term negative, but the probability is low.

③ Current state of the cryptocurrency market (extremely fragile)

· Emotional freezing point: The fear index has dropped to 10 (the lowest since 2022), indicating “extreme fear”.
· Highly sensitive: Institutional buying is weak (500 million in ETF inflows cannot offset previous selling pressure), analysts warn that prices are extremely sensitive to macro events.

④ Scenario simulation (watching the 68,000 defense line closely)

· Ideal scenario (weak non-farm + significant downward revision): positive. Could become a catalyst to break the 70,000 mark, attacking the 71K-72K resistance zone.
· Risk scenario (data neutral to strong): negative. Disappointment may trigger panic selling, and effectively breaking below 68K will open up downward space to 65K-60K.

#非农就业数据 $BTC

The following is the AI's response:

I would like to use a 5-year investment period. Which of the following products will yield the highest return?
① U.S. stocks
② Gold
③ BTC
④ Silver
⑤ Futures
⑥ A-shares

Indeed, BTC remains the most worthy investment target.

#美国科技基金净流 $BTC

2.10

BTC
The current market is primarily focused on repairing sentiment, and the overall approach for the day remains unchanged. At this moment, the price will continue to oscillate around 67800 to 71600. On the daily chart, the rebound at this position has not yet ended; its purpose is to repair indicators while also paying attention to whether the four-hour level can maintain above 71600. Moreover, the MACD must stay above the zero line for the trend to continue; otherwise, it will still oscillate within the range. After that, it will move down again, with support at 67900-63000 and resistance at 71600-74500.

ETH
The thought process for Ethereum yesterday was to keep an eye on whether the 2000 level could hold. It indeed tested near 2000 and then rebounded. The current strategy is similar to Bitcoin's, focusing on repairing the daily chart. It's also important to monitor whether the four-hour level can continuously maintain bullish momentum. Similarly, all upward oscillations at this position are aimed at repairing the daily chart. After the repair, it will again move down, with support at 2020-1945 and resistance at 2150-2230.

#黄金白银反弹 $BTC

2.9

Key Events This Week:
On February 10, the White House will hold another meeting on stablecoin yield discussions next Tuesday;
On February 11, the U.S. will release January non-farm payroll data at 21:30; the market expects an increase of 70,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to be at 4.4%
On February 13, January CPI data will be released at 21:30; core CPI growth is expected to drop to the lowest level since early 2021

BTC
Market pressure remains high, and liquidity has not yet recovered. The recent decline has been significant but there has not been a clear negative catalyst, which is the most concerning situation, as volatility in risk markets continues to be high without a definite cause. After experiencing a significant pullback last week, the market is currently rebounding after being oversold; this position will likely oscillate for some time. During the day, it is important to watch whether the 4-hour position can rise above the zero line and break through 71600. If it cannot, it will continue to oscillate below 71600, and the upward momentum at this position will not be strong, as the focus is on repairing the indicators here. After the repair is completed, another downward move is expected. Therefore, in summary, the day will still be dominated by oscillation; if it breaks through 71600, it will move around 74500; if it cannot break, it will conduct a second exploration, with support at 68000-62900 and resistance at 71600-74500.

ETH
The Ethereum strategy is similar to Bitcoin's. Currently, the 4-hour level is also encountering corresponding resistance, and attention should be paid to whether it can rise above the zero line. If it cannot, watch for a second exploration after the repair is completed. In summary, during the day, it is important to monitor whether the 15-minute pullback can continue, and also pay attention to whether it can hold around 2000. If it cannot hold, it will again oscillate around 1850, with support at 2000-1945-1830 and resistance at 2114-2200.

#何时抄底？ $BTC

Key events this week:

February 10
The White House will hold another discussion meeting on stablecoin yields next Tuesday;

February 11

The United States will publish January non-farm payroll data on February 11 at 21:30; the market expects an increase of 70,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate expected at 4.4%

February 13

The United States will publish January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30; core CPI growth is expected to fall to the lowest level since early 2021

#何时抄底？ $BTC
$ETH

BTC Bold prediction for the bottom drop time and peak time: (see chart ↓)

Bottom:
October-November 2026
Expected at $45000-$50000

Next peak:
September-November 2029
Expected at $200000-$230000

The rest is left to time

#何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？ $BTC

#全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产

The current fluctuations and downward trend may extend into the first half of 2026. The key to recovery lies in improving macro liquidity and alleviating internal market pressures.

Key factors for the continuation of the trend:
① Macro pressure: Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical issues, and potential AI bubble risks may continue to put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
② Internal market pressure: Ongoing selling by long-term holders and intermittent inflow of institutional funds have led to a “slow bleeding” type of spot selling pressure.

Potential signals and timing for recovery:
Most analysts believe the market is more likely to enter a “fluctuating bottoming” phase rather than a deep bear market. True trend recovery may require waiting for the following signals:

① Macro shift: The Federal Reserve releases clear easing signals, and global liquidity improves.
② Internal structural improvement: Bitcoin ETF resumes sustained net inflows, and new demand narratives emerge in the market (e.g., large-scale institutional allocations).
③ Price signals: Bitcoin price reaches a historic high, which can serve as a technical signal for the market to digest pressure and regain confidence.

Current market phase diagram outlines key stages and characteristics:

Phase One: Early 2026

· Main characteristics: May face a pullback
· Key drivers: Macro headwinds, market deleveraging

Phase Two: Throughout 2026 (higher probability path)

· Main characteristics: Fluctuating bottoming
· Key drivers: Tug-of-war between long and short factors, liquidity games
· Institutional viewpoint reference: Multiple institutions believe this is the most likely scenario, with BTC potentially fluctuating between $70,000 and $100,000.

Phase Three: Second half of 2026 and beyond

· Main characteristics: Trend recovery
· Key drivers: Shift in macro policies, new funds entering the market
· Institutional viewpoint reference: If conditions are met, the market may see a rebound by the end of the year.

Recommendations:
In the current environment, reduce short-term profit expectations and avoid using high leverage. Consider adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy to buy on dips, while maintaining sufficient cash positions to cope with volatility.

#BTC何时反弹？ #BTC市场影响分析 $BTC
$ETH

#全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产

Common methods for predicting cryptocurrency prices:

1. Halving cycle model: Based on Bitcoin's halving supply every 4 years, historical data shows price peaks 1-2 years after halving. The current cycle (after the 2024 halving) predicts a high of $120,000 to $200,000 and a low of $50,000 to $70,000 for 2026.

2. Power law model: Uses logarithmic fitting for long-term trends, predicting an average price of $80,000 to $180,000 for 2026.

3. Machine learning model: Such as LSTM neural networks, trained on historical data for predictions.

$BTC

$BTC

The value of this chart is still rising💹

When the big pie rebounded to around 95500 on January 19, I reminded everyone that a big drop was imminent, urging everyone to manage their positions well, but unfortunately, not many people paid attention
#BTC市场影响分析 $BTC

Is BTC reaching 60000 a stage bottom or a continuation of the decline?

Currently, the price has dropped significantly on the daily level and has returned to 60000. The strong support below is in the range of 55000 to 60000, and now that this wave of market decline has shown increased volume, it means there is corresponding active trading volume below. Do you think there are more buyers or sellers at this position? Ethereum has also shown increased volume on the daily level, and it's important to pay attention to the turnover at this position.

Summary: Not all positive news during an uptrend is necessarily good, and not all negative news during a downtrend is necessarily bad.

#加密市场回调 $BTC
$ETH
#全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产

The Fear and Greed Index has reached a historic low not seen in 3 years. Are you brave enough to buy the dip?

The current Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9, with the historical low being 5. Looking back, every time it falls below 10, it has marked a temporary bottom. The current market sentiment is one of extreme fear, which could also represent a buying opportunity. So at this position, are you willing to buy?

$BTC
#加密市场回调

After this round of washing, the focus should be on the payment track, because in the entire cryptocurrency market, only payments can take root, while others cannot.

The entire cryptocurrency market is declining, but HYPE remains strong, as HYPE is becoming the underlying infrastructure for all transactions. It is no longer just an exchange; from perpetual contracts to prediction markets, and then to AI trading and payments, HYPE may be the first native infrastructure of the AI era.

#hype

2.4

BTC
The House of Representatives passed the funding bill, which is now sent for Trump’s signature, ending the shutdown. The market's shutdown period was roughly as we expected, not very long. Next, we will focus on when the decline will stop. Currently, Bitcoin is facing a key level at 71300, which is also the upper edge of a previous consolidation zone. We have noticed that in the past couple of days, the market has been oscillating around 76000, as the cost of MicroStrategy is near this level. At this position, we haven't seen any obvious signs of a stop in the decline, but near the previous accumulation area around 71300, there is a high probability of a rebound. We will watch if it can stabilize above 81700; if it cannot, the trend remains downward. In summary, we can monitor the divergence at the four-hour level at this position and observe whether the K-line can rebound to the zero axis. In conclusion, there will be a slight rebound at this position, with support at 73100-71300 and resistance at 77700-79000.

ETH
Ethereum is similar; currently, there is no complete stop in the decline. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the four-hour level repair. In summary, as long as it does not break 2175 during the day, there will be a slight rebound, focusing on around 2370 for the rebound, with support at 2175-2050 and resistance at 2320-2375-2430.

#BTC走势分析 $BTC
$ETH

2.3

Yesterday, CME's opening futures saw a significant decline, but as we entered the European session, it began to recover. This week, expectations for a government shutdown to end on Monday seem to be delayed for a few more days. This shutdown has once again delayed the release of labor data; however, the data for January is not very important anymore. Everyone is more focused on the trends after the upcoming handover. Therefore, in the short term, there isn't much negative news from the fundamentals.

BTC
The thought I shared with everyone yesterday was that if 76400 doesn't break, there would be a small rebound. After a false breakdown at the 76400 level yesterday, it then rebounded upwards and reached our indicated resistance. The recent decline to 74500 is a starting point from the previous rise. At this position, it is highly likely to form a central pivot. Therefore, what we need to pay attention to during the day is the strength of the rebound at the four-hour mark. Additionally, after this position rebounds upwards, it will also make a downward move. After that, we should monitor whether a divergence can form at the four-hour mark, which could lead to a rebound in the market. So in the coming days, we need to focus on the rebound around 80500 above. If it doesn't break, we need to be cautious as it may make a downward move, with support at 77600-74500 and resistance at 79400-80700.

ETH
Ethereum at this position also needs to consider Bitcoin. We should pay attention to whether it can break above the zero line at the one-hour level and continue. We also need to observe at the four-hour level whether this position can continue to move upwards. The thought process is the same; after finishing the four-hour move, it will also come down again. So, to summarize, the day will experience upward fluctuations, but the larger direction is still downward, with support at 2285-2230 and resistance at 2400-2530.

#BTC何时反弹？ $BTC

#贵金属巨震 What impact does this have on the market?

First, the conclusion: This wave of violent fluctuations is a "bubble squeeze + leverage cleaning" in a bull market, similar to several major historical corrections (such as after 2011). It is under short-term pressure (increased volatility, prone to overshooting), but the long-term trend of being easy to rise and hard to fall has not been broken. Investors need to enhance their risk awareness: avoid chasing highs and killing lows, control leverage, and pay attention to Federal Reserve / US dollar dynamics. Physical gold and silver or ETFs are suitable for long-term allocation, and short-term traders are advised to wait until the dust settles (possibly a bottoming signal in 2-3 months)

The core reason for the short-term sell-off: Trump nominated "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, which the market interpreted as an enhancement of the Federal Reserve's independence, expectations for tapering + moderate interest rate cuts (rather than ultra-dovish), the US dollar index strengthened rapidly, real interest rates rose, suppressing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold/silver. Meanwhile, the extreme rise in early January (gold RSI hitting a 40-year peak) accumulated a huge amount of profit-taking + leveraged speculation (especially the high beta nature of silver), and once sentiment reverses, it triggers a chain reaction of stop-loss/margin calls, exacerbating volatility due to liquidity exhaustion.

Impact:
① Short-term (in the next few weeks to 1-3 months): Volatility will continue to amplify, and a "second bottom test" may even occur.

② Medium to long-term (throughout 2026 and beyond): Most institutions remain bullish, and violent fluctuations do not change the logic of the bull market, but rather represent a "healthy adjustment." Supporting factors: Central banks continue to buy gold (de-dollarization), global debt/fiscal deficits are expanding, inflation is stubborn, geopolitical structural risks (not a one-time event), and physical demand is warming up (price pullbacks stimulate jewelry/investment buying). Goldman Sachs predicts gold to reach $5,400 by the end of 2026, while Heraeus ranges from $3,750 to $5,000, and J.P. Morgan is even more optimistic at $6,300. Industrial demand for silver (photovoltaics, hydrogen energy, AI data centers) + supply-demand gap remains strong, though volatility is high, the elasticity is greater.

Downside risks: If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens, economic recession suppresses industrial demand (silver is more affected), or complete clearing of leverage leads to a liquidity crisis, a short-term bear market may continue. However, the core narrative (declining US dollar credit, revaluation of safe-haven assets) remains unchanged, and after a correction, bulls are likely to return.

$XAU

#BTC何时反弹？

First, the conclusion: In the short term (2–6 weeks), a rebound is very likely, but it is more likely a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. A truly sustainable increase requires macroeconomic improvement, institutional reinvestment, and retail returning to a new narrative, which could be delayed until the second half of 2026 or even later. At this stage, it is advisable to be cautious and observe. $74,000–$76,000 is the critical line—holding it means there's hope, but breaking it requires patience for lower levels.

#加密市场回调 $BTC

#爱泼斯坦案烧向币圈 What impact does the cryptocurrency world have?

① Reputation and trust crisis: The cryptocurrency world originally emphasized "decentralization" and "anti-establishment," but the Epstein case revealed that early funding may have come from questionable sources, damaging the industry's image. Critics argue that cryptocurrency is an "elite tool," rather than empowering the masses. This has led some investors to turn to "cleaner" projects or simply withdraw altogether.

② Market volatility and price shocks: The release of the Epstein documents directly intensified panic in the cryptocurrency market. In November 2025, Bitcoin erased its annual gains, briefly falling below $80,000, with the entire cryptocurrency market evaporating over $1 trillion. One reason is investor concern that the "elite manipulation theory" could undermine Bitcoin's appeal, leading to leveraged liquidation and a sell-off.

③ Increased regulatory pressure: The case has prompted the U.S. Congress to investigate the Epstein documents, and the Trump administration is also facing pressure to release more documents.

$BTC

Which tokens can you invest in during the 2026 bear market to achieve over 10 times the increase:

50% position investment in BTC, ETH (the points have already been given in the previous video)

① Public chain track: SUI, XRP, SEI, BGB, PLUME

② DEX: HYPE, ASTER, PUMP

③ RWA: ONDO, PIUME

④ Stablecoins: RIVER, ENA

#BTC何时反弹？ $RIVER

ETH should pay attention to these key positions next, which is enough to allow you to turn the tables in the next wave.

ETH is continuously consolidating at a high level in the monthly chart, while the MACD at this position is continuously diverging. Therefore, the risk for Ethereum is greater than that of Bitcoin, but Ethereum has a corresponding ecosystem to support it.

From a technical perspective, the monthly and weekly charts have not pulled back sufficiently. The key positions to watch next are:
① $1755
② $1125
③ $700

#加密市场回调 #ETH走势分析 $ETH