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Gold and Silver Price Trends and Market Dynamics Analysis

1. Gold and Silver Market Dynamics
Latest report: The target price for silver has been raised to $150 per ounce, and the Royal Bank of Canada predicts that gold may reach $7,100 by the end of the year.
Market sentiment: Almost all major banks have turned bullish on gold, with bearish voices nearly disappearing, and market sentiment towards gold is very optimistic.
Relationship between the US Dollar and Gold: A decline in the US Dollar typically makes gold and silver priced in dollars appear more valuable. The former president has expressed no concern over the decline of the US Dollar, further reinforcing this expectation.

3. Sequence of Commodity Rotation
Rotation pattern: The rise in commodities generally follows the order of precious metals (gold and silver) → industrial metals (such as copper) → oil and gas energy → chemicals → agricultural products.
Current phase: Gold and silver have risen first, and the market is focusing on the next rotation sector, with many funds already shifting to crude oil.
Crude oil trend: Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East may lead to global crude oil supply issues, and recent crude oil prices have quietly started to rise rapidly.

In the mainland, channels for investing in silver

Silver futures: High threshold, one contract price exceeds 400,000, margin reaches 100,000, not friendly to ordinary investors.

Bank channels: Previously opened accounts can continue trading, but most investors have not opened accounts and it is now suspended.

Paper silver: Gradually suspended since 2022, currently only paper gold is available for trading.

Physical silver: Can be purchased from banks or designated channels, authenticity guaranteed and recyclable, but convenience is poor.

Silver-related stocks: Low threshold but serious speculation, some companies like 'Silver Nonferrous' are actually place names, making investment difficult.

Silver LOF funds: The only fund that can invest in silver, but there are subscription limits and high premiums in the market. Subscriptions will be suspended from the 28th, and ordinary investors lose the channel to buy at par.

1. The feat of free climbing Taipei 101
A man, without any protective equipment, wearing only climbing shoes, carrying anti-slip powder and listening to music through Bluetooth headphones, free climbed the 508-meter-high Taipei 101 building, completing the climb in 1 hour and 31 minutes, half an hour ahead of schedule.
In 2004, the "French Spider-Man" completed the same climb with ropes in 4 hours, in contrast, this man appeared remarkably relaxed.
Scientists explain that the reason for his success lies in the amygdala in the brain, which is responsible for fear, showing almost no reaction to high-risk stimuli, allowing him to maintain high focus and calm in danger.
2. Suspension of silver LOF subscriptions and market reactions
The silver LOF announced that it would officially suspend subscriptions starting January 28, and this news has attracted market attention.
The market reaction has been likened to the unexpected feeling of "suddenly being interrupted while happily shearing sheep."
3. The impact of geopolitical factors on the crude oil market
The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, "USS Lincoln," quickly arrived in the Persian Gulf, leading the market to believe that the probability of military action against Iran has increased, directly triggering a rise in crude oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz, as a necessary passage for 30% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of natural gas, will lead to soaring oil prices if it is blocked due to military conflict.
Currently, there is a general phenomenon of high premiums in the crude oil LOF market: the crude oil LOF has a premium of 10% and a purchase limit of 100 yuan, the Harvest crude oil has a premium of 4.32% also with a purchase limit of 100 yuan, and both the oil fund and the crude oil fund have premiums exceeding 8%.
4. The performance of gold as a safe-haven asset
The gold-themed LOF currently has a premium of 2.04%, rising in tandem with crude oil as the ultimate safe-haven asset.
Trump threatened that if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China, a 100% tariff would be imposed on Canadian goods, such a level of threat puts pressure on the dollar and indirectly raises the price of gold.
The World Bank analysis points out that the core driving force behind the current rise in precious metal prices is geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, with global monetary over-issuance breaking the old balance, and the rise of gold and silver is seen as the most striking performance in this "settlement."

1. California announces joining the World Health Organization
After the understanding king announced the United States' withdrawal from the World Health Organization, the governor of California announced that the state will independently join the global pandemic network of the World Health Organization. This decision shows the lack of synchronization between federal states and the central government in international affairs.
This decision not only involves public health considerations but also reflects the deep uncertainty and centrifugal force in American politics, mirroring the chaotic state of the current political narrative.
2. Musk announces SpaceX cost targets
Musk stated at the Davos Forum that SpaceX hopes to achieve a significant reduction in rocket transportation costs this year through technological breakthroughs, with a target cost of less than 100 dollars per pound of goods transported.
He also proposed the idea of laying photovoltaic panels in space, pointing out that in an environment with 24 hours of sunlight, the power generation efficiency will far exceed that on Earth. This grand technological narrative has had a significant uplifting effect on related investment sectors.
3. Silver market dynamics
The technical pattern of silver prices has fundamentally changed, with the previous $100 resistance level now transformed into a support level.
Currently, the silver price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has a premium of 42.53% compared to the London market, and it is still in a purchase limit of 100 and suspended until 10:30. It is estimated that over a million investors are focusing on this market.

Cryptocurrency Trends and Market Analysis

1. Controversial Events in the Crypto Community
Dispute between He Yi and CZ: Community users criticize Binance executives He Yi and CZ for damaging the atmosphere of the crypto community. He Yi responded on Twitter, saying that "nitpicking" is not a constructive behavior, and denied the claim that Binance has destroyed blockchain. The author believes that most of these critics are speculators rather than practitioners.
Interpretation of MEME Coin Slang:
"Nitpicking" refers to extracting vocabulary from celebrities' Twitter accounts as a gimmick for issuing coins, with different public chains having corresponding focus (e.g., BSC chain focuses on He Yi/CZ, Ethereum focuses on Vitalik).
"Pouring" is a term for offloading assets, describing the act of transferring assets to others.

2. Investment Risks in MEME Coins
Author's View: Retail investors are not advised to participate in MEME coin trading, as there are profit opportunities but the risks are extremely high. Key issues include judging the existence of market makers, identifying the sources of "smart money", and distinguishing between autonomous decision-making and following the trend in investments.
Industry Status: Exchanges must cater to market demand by listing popular MEME coins; this is a result of commercial competition rather than a moral choice.

3. Bitcoin Market Analysis
Recent Trends: Bitcoin has retraced 16% of its gains from the previous two months, and the market has shown characteristics of severe volatility. After the liquidation event on October 11, market liquidity primarily relies on contract liquidation (if long positions are excessive, the price drops; if short positions are excessive, the price rises).
Investment Recommendations:
Under the current market conditions, a 35% drop may be the limit, and prices starting with 8 are suitable for regular investments.
The U.S. Treasury's inclusion of Bitcoin in its strategic reserves is a long-term positive, but large funds primarily play a supportive role rather than driving short-term increases.

4. Summary of Industry Views
Critique of Token Economics: The author pointed out two years ago that the essence of token economics is circulation model design; truly valuable companies will not emphasize this concept.
ARK Investment Forecast: Cathie Wood predicts that gold will peak in 2026 and Bitcoin will follow an independent trend, but the author believes that her analysis is overly idealistic, and actual developments may be accompanied by bubbles and reshuffling.

2. A-share market recent performance + **Overall market:** + Daily transaction of 2.78 trillion, median drop of 0.37%, Chuang index drop exceeds 1%, commercial aerospace, brain-machine, CPO and other concept sectors collectively adjusted around 2.7%. + Three consecutive days of mechanical selling at 10 o'clock / 14 o'clock, but afternoon selling pressure weakened, the initial year surge momentum has been curbed, and trading volume returned to normal levels. + **Capital flows:** + Traditional sectors such as chemicals, real estate, banks, and coal received capital inflows, but the sustainability of the seesaw effect remains in doubt. + The precious metals sector rose 31% in January, in sync with international gold and silver price trends (silver peaked at 96 yuan/gram, gold broke through 4700 yuan/gram).

## 3. External situation and market correlation + **Impact of US-Europe confrontation:** + The Greenland dispute triggered tax retaliation from the US and Europe, with Europe planning to sell tens of trillions of US bonds, leading to a 30-year yield rising to 4.925% (a new high since September last year). + Geopolitical risks drive capital into gold, and the horizontal trend of virtual currencies may be indirectly affected by this. + **Regulatory dynamics:** The platform's seizure of individual stock trading related to the 83 million fine incident reminds media practitioners to pay attention to compliance risks.

## 4. Other market hotspots + **Copper bar speculation phenomenon:** The Shuibei market has seen 999.9 copper bars (premium of 80-150%), but there are hard injuries such as storage oxidation and trading wear, warning of speculation risks.

+ **Rich list update:** Musk's assets reached a historic high of 780 billion dollars, leading the third place by over 100 billion dollars.

+ **Individual stock fluctuations:** Pop Mart surged 9% due to a 251 million Hong Kong dollar buyback plan (cash on hand 20 billion), the stock price rebounded for the first time after being halved from its high of 339 Hong Kong dollars.

# December Housing Price Data and Market Dynamics Analysis This article analyzes the housing price data of 70 major cities in December 2023, pointing out that the decline in the housing market has slowed but has not improved, while also discussing population data, A-share market dynamics, and international hot events.

1. The month-on-month decline in housing prices in December has narrowed to within 1%, but the seasonal factors at the end of the year are significant, and the trend in March next year needs to be observed. Beijing's year-on-year decline is 8.5%, indicating that large cities may not be resistant to decline.

2. The number of newborns in 2024 is expected to be 8 million, a decrease of 17% compared to 2023, with a death toll of 11,310,000 leading to a population decrease of 3.39 million. The trend of population decline will continue for 70-80 years.

3. The transaction volume of the A-share market is 27.1 trillion, with institutions selling ETFs suppressing the weighted index. The CSI 2000 index performed the best but has a smaller influence, and the market shows a cooling trend.

4. Internationally, the EU plans to counteract US tariffs but is expected to compromise. The easing of the US-Iran situation has reduced the probability of conflict to 28%. Gold and silver prices continue to rise, and electricity grid concept stocks are being speculated.

5. Musk emphasizes that restoring the birth rate should be the primary task of all countries, resonating with the current trend of population decline in China.

2026/1/20 A-share fund arbitrage

501225, Global Chip LOF, 6.7% premium rate, off-market subscription 100*1
161226, Silver LOF, 37.6% premium rate, on-market subscription 100*1
The limit purchase of 10 yuan is not worth mentioning, it doesn't matter

The opening of the spot market is the peak
Only increasing alpha by n times, what is happening in this world?

Where did these three days and two days come from? Just talking nonsense
Go take a look at other exchanges, 5 to 10 in a month.

Where to check for deposits in stakestone
and deposits in lombard?

Pre-registered users also need to answer questions

Awesome

#sofa SOFA's RCH has continued to increase its destruction efforts, and has been destroyed twice in the past 7 days.