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丁真

鲜衣怒马少年郎,谁人不识理塘王!
Open Trade
Occasional Trader
4.4 Years
3 Following
795 Followers
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Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum. You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago. Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris. The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis? Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative." They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases. They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith." They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety. Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure. If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market. Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached. Do not think this is cruel. In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum.
You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago.
Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris.
The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis?
Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative."
They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases.
They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith."
They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety.
Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure.
If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market.
Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached.
Do not think this is cruel.
In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH
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I don't know how everyone manages to refrain from opening positions after taking profits? I withdraw one month's living expenses and then uninstall the software, forcing myself to play a single-player game for a day $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) #美联储维持利率不变
I don't know how everyone manages to refrain from opening positions after taking profits? I withdraw one month's living expenses and then uninstall the software, forcing myself to play a single-player game for a day $ETH
$BTC
#美联储维持利率不变
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Bearish
Enduring for a few days. 2810 take profit. Brothers, I am tired. I haven't regretted a moment these past few days. I've shorted from 3350 to 2800, and I've achieved a high multiplier. Why do I still want to be greedy for the profits at 2700? I don't understand, I don't get it, I'm just holding on to my position, waiting for some news. After dark today, I saw the market moving, so I made one last trade. I am relieved, and I wish all my brothers to be relieved soon as well. $ETH #伊朗 Thank you, Iran, for conducting exercises {future}(ETHUSDT)
Enduring for a few days. 2810 take profit. Brothers, I am tired. I haven't regretted a moment these past few days. I've shorted from 3350 to 2800, and I've achieved a high multiplier. Why do I still want to be greedy for the profits at 2700? I don't understand, I don't get it, I'm just holding on to my position, waiting for some news. After dark today, I saw the market moving, so I made one last trade. I am relieved, and I wish all my brothers to be relieved soon as well. $ETH #伊朗 Thank you, Iran, for conducting exercises
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Bearish
$ETH Reopen an order and see what the situation is tomorrow {future}(ETHUSDT)
$ETH Reopen an order and see what the situation is tomorrow
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Bearish
Woke up early and closed my position at 2820. Let's wait for the next opportunity to open a position. I have been losing for quite a while. This time I opened a short below three thousand, then hit stop losses consecutively at three thousand four, and then opened a short again at 3350. It has been a downward trend, and I am actually just about to break even. #美国伊朗如何影响市场 $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Woke up early and closed my position at 2820. Let's wait for the next opportunity to open a position. I have been losing for quite a while. This time I opened a short below three thousand, then hit stop losses consecutively at three thousand four, and then opened a short again at 3350. It has been a downward trend, and I am actually just about to break even. #美国伊朗如何影响市场 $ETH
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Bearish
$ETH fell, that's it
$ETH fell, that's it
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Wow, the short position actually stayed up all night without waking up. When I woke up, it was 3000? I still have to set a take profit, otherwise I'll be waiting for a stop loss.
Wow, the short position actually stayed up all night without waking up. When I woke up, it was 3000? I still have to set a take profit, otherwise I'll be waiting for a stop loss.
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Bearish
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Bearish
$ETH is not that you have so much money to buy the dip, right? Is it New Year? If you don't open a short position, you can also buy a put option for protection.
$ETH is not that you have so much money to buy the dip, right? Is it New Year? If you don't open a short position, you can also buy a put option for protection.
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Bearish
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Bearish
Do not hold any long positions or calls, and do not have any thoughts of a rebound. 3350 is already the top, and it cannot hold above 3000, which not only kills the bulls but also the put sellers. $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #特朗普对欧洲加征关税
Do not hold any long positions or calls, and do not have any thoughts of a rebound. 3350 is already the top, and it cannot hold above 3000, which not only kills the bulls but also the put sellers. $ETH
#特朗普对欧洲加征关税
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Bearish
The essence of trading is 90% waiting plus 10% execution $ETH . The distribution at three thousand points won't hold for long; more and more people will start to notice the clues. Not going to 2995 is also because of the fear of hitting the resistance level, so let's go to 2955. {future}(ETHUSDT)
The essence of trading is 90% waiting plus 10% execution $ETH . The distribution at three thousand points won't hold for long; more and more people will start to notice the clues. Not going to 2995 is also because of the fear of hitting the resistance level, so let's go to 2955.
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Bearish
$ETH successful profit-taking watch the show {future}(ETHUSDT)
$ETH successful profit-taking watch the show
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Bearish
Do not ask 'Will it stop?' when gravity is accelerating; you should ask 'Is my position big enough?' The red line at this moment: No bottom fishing. No buying Calls. No hesitation. My judgment: ETH will completely tear through the $3,000 defense line in the next 4 hours. All pullbacks will lead to a dead end. "The Nasdaq has already fallen, and ETH is lining up. Hold tight to your Puts; this is the closest you've ever been to 'wealth redistribution.'" $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) #纳斯达克 #加密市场观察
Do not ask 'Will it stop?' when gravity is accelerating; you should ask 'Is my position big enough?'
The red line at this moment:
No bottom fishing.
No buying Calls.
No hesitation.
My judgment:
ETH will completely tear through the $3,000 defense line in the next 4 hours. All pullbacks will lead to a dead end.
"The Nasdaq has already fallen, and ETH is lining up. Hold tight to your Puts; this is the closest you've ever been to 'wealth redistribution.'" $ETH
#纳斯达克 #加密市场观察
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Bearish
Once ETH falls below $2,990, the market makers who sold the 3000-P will find their Delta risk suddenly out of control. To protect themselves, they must sell tens of thousands of ETH spot at the market price. Conclusion: This will produce a 'gravity self-correction', and the price will directly skip over 2980, crashing directly to 2920$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
Once ETH falls below $2,990, the market makers who sold the 3000-P will find their Delta risk suddenly out of control.
To protect themselves, they must sell tens of thousands of ETH spot at the market price.
Conclusion: This will produce a 'gravity self-correction', and the price will directly skip over 2980, crashing directly to 2920$BTC
$ETH
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Bearish
Liquidity contraction: When core risk assets like the Nasdaq start to plummet, global funds' "risk control instructions (Margin Call)" will immediately come into effect. They will sell the most liquid assets (ETH/BTC) at any cost to replenish the margin in the stock market. Illusion of safety shattered: Retail investors who were just fantasizing about the benefits of a trade war for safety will see the Nasdaq crash and immediately fall into panic. Panic is unquantifiable; it will only lead to bottomless sell-offs. $ETH #加密市场观察 #爆仓了 {future}(ETHUSDT) $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
Liquidity contraction: When core risk assets like the Nasdaq start to plummet, global funds' "risk control instructions (Margin Call)" will immediately come into effect. They will sell the most liquid assets (ETH/BTC) at any cost to replenish the margin in the stock market.
Illusion of safety shattered: Retail investors who were just fantasizing about the benefits of a trade war for safety will see the Nasdaq crash and immediately fall into panic. Panic is unquantifiable; it will only lead to bottomless sell-offs. $ETH #加密市场观察 #爆仓了
$BTC
$SOL
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Bearish
$ETH Haha, can you still walk independently in the market?
$ETH Haha, can you still walk independently in the market?
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Bearish
2950 Take Profit Full Take Profit $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
2950 Take Profit Full Take Profit $ETH
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