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Market Structure Clear sell side liquidity sweep at 2,157. Bounce followed, but price formed a lower high at 2,396. Structure is corrective, not a confirmed trend reversal. No higher high above prior resistance → structure remains range bound. Key Support & Resistance Key resistance: 2,380 – 2,400 → Rejection zone + local high at 2,396. Mid-range: 2,330 – 2,360 → Current trading area, no edge. Key support: 2,250 – 2,260 → Prior consolidation + MA interaction. Major support: 2,150 – 2,170 → Sell-side liquidity sweep low. Liquidity & Stop Hunts Sell-side liquidity already taken below 2,160. Buy side liquidity above 2,400 not yet taken. Price is currently between liquidity pools. Volume Behavior Expansion on the drop into 2,157. Bounce occurred on declining volume. No volume expansion near resistance → no breakout confirmation. Momentum / RSI (visual) Momentum recovered from oversold. Currently flattening, no continuation signal. Trend Bias Neutral / range-bound on 1H. Still below the 99 MA (~2,510). Decision: ❌ NO TRADE Reason for NO TRADE Price is in the middle of the range. No breakout above 2,400. No breakdown below 2,250. Risk reward is unfavorable without a range edge or confirmation. What would make a trade valid? LONG only if:
Clean 1H close above 2,400, followed by a successful retest. SHORT only if: Breakdown and acceptance below 2,250, targeting 2,170 liquidity. Until one of those conditions occurs, $ETH is a wait and react market, not a signal market.
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Interpret the new regulatory requirements, analyze the core impacts on the market, and based on this, propose response suggestions.
On December 24, 2025, the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) jointly published a consultation summary on legislative proposals for regulating virtual asset trading and custody services, and at the same time, further conducted a one-month public consultation on the establishment of additional service providers for virtual assets and the licensing system for virtual asset management service providers. #加密市场回调 正规军
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