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After losing more than 4% in the last week of the year, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum as trading conditions normalized. 

Although XAU/USD entered a consolidation phase following the rally seen earlier in the week, it managed to register weekly gains. December inflation data from the US and geopolitical developments could drive gold’s action in the short term. 

Gold Price Rebounds Following a Bearish End to 2025 

Gold registered heavy losses between the Christmas and New Year holidays. In the absence of fundamental drivers, profit-taking seemingly triggered this move, which was intensified by thin trading volumes.

As market conditions started to normalize, XAU/USD gained traction and rose more than 2.5% on Monday. 

Gold Price Chart over the Past Month. Source: TradingView

Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions on news of the US military entering Venezuela and capturing its President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend, allowed Gold to benefit from safe-haven flows. 

After extending its rally and gaining another 1% on Tuesday, the renewed US Dollar (USD) strength and the CME Group’s decision to hike the margins on Gold and Silver futures caused XAU/USD to lose its traction. 

Data published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Wednesday that US private-sector payrolls rose by 41,000 in December following the 29,000 decrease recorded in November. 

In another positive note, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November. 

Moreover, the Employment Index of the PMI survey rose into the expansion territory above 50 for the first time since June. 

With these data reassuring a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy hold in January, Gold edged lower midweek before going into a consolidation phase. 

In the meantime, China announced export controls on Silver (XAG/USD). With this development, Silver prices rose sharply to begin the week, gaining more than 10% in a two-day span.

Reporting on the matter, “China ranks second in global silver mine production, but the Chinese dominate the silver market through their massive refining capacity. The country controls 60 to 70 percent of the world’s refined silver supply,” said Mike Maharrey, FXStreet contributor and market analyst at Money Metals Exchange. 

Although the CME’s margin hike caused XAG/USD to correct sharply, the Gold/Silver ratio, which represents the number of ounces of Silver required to purchase one ounce of Gold, fell nearly 4% for the week. 

At around 57, Gold/Silver ratio currently sits at its lowest level since August 2013. 

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, compared to the market expectation of 60,000. 

On a positive note, the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.4% from 4.6% in November. The market reaction to the employment data remained short-lived, and Gold held in the upper half of its weekly range heading into the weekend. 

Keu US Economic Events in the Second Week of January 2026 Gold Traders to Focus on Geopolitics and US Inflation Data 

The economic calendar will be relatively light in terms of data releases. On Tuesday, the BLS will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December. 

Retail Sales and Producer Price Index for November will also be featured in the US economic docket, which are likely to be largely ignored by market participants. 

December inflation data is unlikely to influence the Fed’s January decision in a significant way but a significant surprise, especially in the monthly core CPI print, could trigger a market reaction. 

A reading of 0.3%, or higher, could revive concerns over inflation remaining sticky and boost the USD in the immediate term. 

Conversely, a reading below 0.2% could have the opposite impact on the currency’s performance and help XAU/USD edge higher. 

Investors will keep a close eye on geopolitical headlines throughout the week. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is planning to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. 

In an interview with the NY Times, US President Donald Trump reiterated his intentions of taking over Greenland. “Ownership is very important,” Trump told the newspaper. 

“Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success. I think that ownership gives you a thing that you can’t do with, you’re talking about a lease or a treaty. Ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.” 

It is difficult to say what the next development will be in this matter, but an escalation in tensions between the EU and the US could cause investors to seek refuge. 

In this scenario, Gold could gather strength. 

Gold Price Analysis

The unrest in Iran, led by anti-government demonstrations across the country, including in the capital city Tehran, could affect the risk mood in the near future as well. 

US President Trump said that the US could take military action against Iran in case authorities use lethal force against protestors. 

A deepening conflict in Iran and the US’s active involvement could allow Gold to continue benefiting from safe-haven flows.

When Ripple announced its new UK approvals from the Financial Conduct Authority (FAC) today, most of the community focused on the headline – another regulatory win. XRP’s price barely moved, and the news cycle moved on.

But inside the wording of Ripple’s press release sits a much more important story for XRP holders.

A Big Win For XRP that Went Unnoticed

On paper, Ripple just got permission to exist in the UK. But it’s more critical than that. Ripple actually secured the legal ability to operate a full digital-asset payment stack inside one of the world’s strictest financial systems. 

Now, that changes how XRP can be used by institutions in ways that markets do not price in overnight.

The key line was that UK institutions can now send cross-border payments “using digital assets” through Ripple’s licensed platform. Ripple then explicitly reminded readers that its infrastructure runs on XRPL, where XRP is the native asset for settlement.

This matters because regulated financial firms do not care about crypto narratives. They care about compliance, counterparty risk, and operational simplicity. 

So, the EMI licence and crypto registration give Ripple the ability to handle the regulated fiat side of transactions in the UK. That removes one of the biggest barriers to crypto settlement adoption – the banking rails.

When those rails work smoothly, XRP can quietly do what it was designed to do.

XRP Price Chart Over the Last 3 Months. Source: CoinGecko Why This Matters for XRP, Not Just Ripple

Most banks and payment firms do not directly interact with blockchains. They want a regulated intermediary that abstracts that complexity away. Ripple Payments now does exactly that in the UK.

Once funds enter Ripple’s licensed system, Ripple can choose the most efficient settlement method available. 

Sometimes that will be stablecoins or direct fiat rails. But in corridors where speed, cost, and liquidity matter, XRP becomes a natural bridge asset.

The licence gives Ripple legal control over more of the payment flow. That means fewer partners, fewer compliance roadblocks, and fewer technical excuses not to route value through XRPL.

This is why the announcement included Ripple Prime, custody, clearing, FX, and even fixed-income services. 

Ripple is building an institutional pipeline where digital assets move inside regulated finance, not outside it. XRP sits inside that pipeline.

Overall, this approval enables XRP to be used in UK-originating corridors, but traders will only react when Ripple starts onboarding banks, moving flows, and settling value on XRPL.

When that happens, XRP demand shows up as liquidity needs.

That is the kind of utility that takes time to build and is rarely obvious when the paperwork gets signed.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) transacted more than $2 billion in cryptocurrency to avoid sanctions and fuel cybercriminal operations, according to Chainalysis. The figure could be higher, given that it only accounts for sanctions designations from the US.

Iran’s situation reflects an exponential rise in illicit cryptocurrency transactions, driven by other sanctions from countries like Russia and North Korea.

Iran, Russia Drive On-Chain Illicit Growth

Crypto crime surged to unprecedented levels in 2025. According to data compiled by Chainalysis, illicit cryptocurrency transactions increased by 162% compared to the previous year, totaling at least $154 billion. 

Sanctioned jurisdictions have significantly expanded their reliance on cryptocurrencies as a means of bypassing financial restrictions. 

In Iran’s case, affiliated proxy groups and entities labeled as terrorist organizations, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have increasingly turned to digital assets to transfer and cash out funds.

Illicit cryptocurrency addresses totalled $154 billion in 2025. Source: Chainalysis.

The West Asian country wasn’t the only one to seed its illicit crypto economy surge. 

According to Chainalysis, Russia accounted for the largest share of illicit on-chain activity. This trend intensified after the state introduced its ruble-pegged A7A5 token last year. In total, transactions linked to Russia’s new stablecoin reached at least $93 billion.

That volume alone emerged as the primary factor behind an almost sevenfold increase in crypto activity among sanctioned entities.

North Korean hackers have long been a persistent presence in the cyber threat environment. The past year marked their most damaging period to date, both in terms of the value stolen and the growing sophistication of their attack and laundering methods.

Illicitly obtained assets continued to pose a significant risk to the crypto ecosystem in 2025. Hackers linked to the DPRK were responsible for approximately $2 billion in stolen funds.

At the same time, China’s role in illicit activity introduced an unexpected dimension to the overall landscape.

Crypto Crime Extends Into Physical Violence

According to a Chainalysis report published Thursday, Chinese money laundering networks (CMLNs) emerged as a dominant force in 2025.

These organized groups accelerated the diversification and professionalization of on-chain crime. They now offer specialized services, including laundering-as-a-service and supporting criminal infrastructure.

Building on models such as Huione Guarantee, these networks evolved into full-service criminal operations. They support fraud, scams, North Korean hacking proceeds, sanctions evasion, and terrorist financing.

Beyond crypto’s role in illicit activity, the report stressed the increased correlation between digital assets and violent crime. 

The blockchain analytics firm stressed the growing connections between on-chain activity and cases of human trafficking operations and attacks involving physical coercion. 

Although Chainalysis clarified that illicit transactions still represent a small share of total crypto activity, the urgency of protecting the ecosystem’s security and integrity has reached unprecedented levels.

Bitcoin held above the $90,000 level on Friday after the latest US labor market data showed slower hiring but no sign of a sharp economic downturn. 

The report removed one key downside risk for crypto markets. However, it did not yet create the conditions for a fast move back toward $100,000.

Labor Data Eases US Recession Risk

The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December. That was one of the weakest monthly gains in years. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% and wage growth stayed firm at 3.8% year over year.

US Unemployment Rate Falls. Source: Reuters

Markets read the data as a cooling labor market, not a collapsing one. That kept risk assets stable, including Bitcoin, which has traded between $89,000 and $92,000 through the session.

The weak payroll number reduced fears of an overheated economy that could force tighter monetary policy. It also reduced the risk of a sudden growth shock that could trigger broad market selling.

That matters for Bitcoin. Over the past year, sharp drawdowns in crypto have followed signs of either runaway inflation or a rapid economic slowdown. Friday’s data showed neither.

Unemployment fell only slightly, while job growth slowed. That combination suggests the economy is losing momentum but remains stable. This supports a “soft landing” outlook rather than a recession.

As a result, Bitcoin avoided the type of risk-off move that would have pushed it back toward the low-$80,000s. 

“With Bitcoin already up over 7% in the opening days of 2026, the path of least resistance is toward the $100,000 psychological milestone. If unemployment continues to hold steady while inflation cools, we expect a definitive breakout of the $100k and a retest of the $110,000 psychological milestone that once served at an all-time high. This level is crucial as it being a previous all-time high makes it serve as a crucial resistance level bitcoin must move higher than in order to instill confidence in investors that high prices are on the table.” Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21shares.

Why Bitcoin’s $100,000 Still Looks Hard in the Near Term

While the report removed one downside risk, it did not unlock a new upside driver.

Wage growth at 3.8% remains high enough to keep services inflation sticky. That gives the Federal Reserve room to stay on hold rather than move quickly toward rate cuts.

Bitcoin has rallied fastest in this cycle when markets priced in falling interest rates and rising liquidity. Friday’s data did not reinforce that narrative.

Instead, it supports a longer pause in policy. That limits the odds of a rapid liquidity-driven surge toward $100,000.

Bitcoin’s path back to six figures now depends less on labor data and more on capital flows and interest rate expectations.

Sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs would provide the demand needed to push through the $95,000 resistance zone. A clearer signal that the Fed plans to cut rates would also help.

For now, the jobs report keeps Bitcoin stable above $90,000. It removes the threat of a sudden macro shock. But it does not yet provide the spark needed for a clean breakout to $100,000.

US Representative Byron Donalds filed this week a purchase of up to $100,000 in Bitcoin. The move raised eyebrows, given the congressman’s seat on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets. 

The development comes amid increased scrutiny of congressional stock trading. It also raises speculation over whether a market structure bill for crypto may be on the verge of passing– potentially serving as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.

What A Congressional Bitcoin Buy Signals

The Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee develops and reviews legislation governing the digital economy.

As the cryptocurrency market rapidly expands, the panel has taken on a central role in shaping clear regulatory frameworks for crypto assets and broader financial technology.

Given Donalds’ role on the subcommittee, the timing of the Bitcoin purchase has drawn attention to concerns about the information lawmakers may access ahead of the public.

The purchase also feeds speculation about Bitcoin’s trajectory as the new year begins. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,370, following months of turbulence that saw prices fall as low as $84,000 and repeated failures to reclaim the $100,000 level.

Market analysts also worry that the decreased demand for the digital asset indicates that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market. In a recent BeInCrypto interview, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno predicted that Bitcoin would hit a $56,000 bottom at some point in 2026.

Bitcoin price chart. Source: CoinGecko.

Still, there are signs of optimism for Bitcoin. A sizable purchase by a key congressional lawmaker may suggest expectations of a rebound before broader market pressures intensify.

The crypto market structure bill currently being debated by Congress may be what Bitcoin needs to rebound.

Why The Clarity Act Matters For Bitcoin

In July, the House passed the Clarity Act, a bill aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market. Since then, the Senate has been working on its own version, known as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act.

The Senate draft is currently undergoing review by the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Though the former has already released a discussion draft on the Senate bill, the latter has yet to do so. 

Only once that is done can the Senate floor vote on the bill. If it receives enough votes, it will go back to the House for final approval before President Donald Trump can sign it into law. 

Despite repeated political setbacks in recent months, reports have suggested that the Clarity Act may be passed as early as March. If this happens, it could have a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s price.

The passage of the GENIUS Act last July illustrates the market impact of regulatory developments. After Trump signed the bill into law, Bitcoin surged to a high of $119,000, a reaction that some expect could be repeated if the CLARITY Act is approved.

For much of its history, the crypto market has operated under persistent regulatory uncertainty, making clear legislation a key source of confidence for both consumers and investors. A market structure bill of this scale could act as another significant regulatory catalyst.

In the meantime, Donalds’ latest Bitcoin purchase has renewed the broader debate to ban congressional stock trading.

Congress Confronts Its Insider Trading Problem

Donalds is among several members of Congress whose investment activity has drawn scrutiny due to the privileged positions they hold.

In October, BeInCrypto reported that Louisiana Representative Cleo Fields had bought a pair of well-timed stock trades tied to IREN, a Bitcoin mining company. Fields, a member of the House Committee on Financial Services, saw his investment surge 233%.

Later that month, Representative Jonathan Jackson, a member of the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, bought Robinhood stocks for the first time.  

The debate extends beyond crypto to encompass all forms of stock trading. 

Although the issue has been longstanding, lawmakers have renewed efforts over the past year to pass legislation that would prevent members of Congress from trading on non-public information.

On Saturday, Representative Ritchie Torres confirmed plans to introduce a bill that would bar federal officials and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts when they have access to non-public information. Like Donalds and Jackson, Torres also sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.

In October, Representative Ro Khanna introduced legislation that would stop the President, his family members, and members of Congress from trading crypto or stocks and accepting foreign funds. 

XRP price has pulled back sharply after a strong start to the year. Since topping on January 6, the price has been down more than 14%. Even after the drop, XRP remains up roughly 11% over the past seven days, showing this move is more correction than a collapse.

What matters now is not the size of the dip, but who is selling, and who is absorbing it.

Selling Pressure Builds as Volume Weakens Beneath Rising Price

From December 18 through January 9, XRP’s price trended higher. During that same period, On-Balance Volume (OBV) trended lower.

OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. When price rises, but OBV falls, it signals that real buying power is weakening and that sellers are quietly active during rallies.

XRP Faces Sell Pressure: TradingView

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More importantly, OBV is now drifting toward a descending trendline that connects its lower lows. If OBV breaks below that trendline, selling pressure could intensify further.

This does not yet confirm a breakdown. It simply shows XRP is facing its first meaningful sell wave of 2026, likely driven by profit-taking after a strong run.

That leads to the key question. If selling is happening, who is doing that? And more importantly, who is absorbing that selling pressure now that a rebound has stabilized the drop, as XRP has been trading flat over the past 24 hours?

Long-Term Holders and Whales Absorb Supply During the Dip

On-chain data shows the selling is not coming from long-term conviction holders.

The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term holders are accumulating or distributing. Since January 5, long-term holders increased their XRP holdings from 47.4 million to 55.4 million XRP. That is an addition of roughly 8 million XRP, a 17% increase, during a period when the price was actively falling.

HODLers Buying: Glassnode

Large whales tell the same story. Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP increased their combined balance from 8.34 billion to 8.52 billion XRP since January 6.

Big Whales Accumulating: Santiment

That is an increase of 180 million XRP, nearly $390 million in buying pressure. This matters because it shows the sell wave is being absorbed by stronger hands, not triggering panic exits.

As long-term holders and whales are accumulating, the sell pressure is most likely due to the short-term players.

XRP Price Levels Above Which The Pressure Fades

Even with accumulation underneath, the price still needs to clear the supply above.

Cost-basis data shows the first major resistance sits near $2.15, where a large cluster of holders previously accumulated. A clean move above this level would signal that near-term selling pressure is weakening.

Immediate Support: Glassnode

The next and more important level is $2.41. This zone marks where the most recent sell-off began and represents a heavy supply cluster as well.

Key XRP Clusters: Glassnode

The supply clusters align with the XRP price chart levels. The first near-term resistance is close to $2.15 ($2.149 to be exact). A daily close above $2.41 would significantly reduce downside risk and reopen the path toward $2.69.

On the downside, $1.97 remains the key support. Holding above it keeps the broader structure intact. A loss of that level would signal that selling pressure is no longer being absorbed.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, XRP is in a controlled pullback phase. Volume shows selling pressure has arrived, but long-term holders and whales are actively buying into it. As long as accumulation continues and key support holds, this correction looks like a pause in the trend, not a warning.

Zcash faced a sudden governance shock this week that sent its price sharply lower. Panic selling pushed ZEC down more than 20% yesterday alone, briefly dipping near the $380 level before buyers stepped in. Since that low, the Zcash price has rebounded roughly 17% and is now trading back above $440.

While the immediate fear has eased, the sell-off left behind technical damage. At the same time, strong buying emerged underneath the drop. Zcash is now caught between a fragile chart structure and a clear accumulation response.

Governance Shock Leaves Zcash in a Bearish Structure With 30% Risk Still Active

The sharp Zcash sell-off followed reports that its core development team had exited. Markets initially interpreted this as a project-level failure, triggering forced selling and a fast breakdown in price. Later clarification showed the move was a governance restructuring, not a protocol issue, which helped stabilize sentiment and spark the rebound.

Despite that recovery, the chart remains vulnerable. Zcash is trading inside a rising wedge on the 12-hour timeframe, a structure that often carries downside risk if support fails.

At the same time, a bearish EMA setup is forming. An Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices, making it useful for spotting momentum shifts. On Zcash’s chart, the short-term 20 EMA is moving closer to the slower 50 EMA. When this bearish crossover forms and eventually confirms, it often signals weakening trend strength.

Bearish Zcash Pattern: TradingView

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If Zcash breaks below the wedge’s lower trendline, the projected downside sits near 30%. That target is calculated using the vertical distance between the upper and lower trendlines of the structure. The rebound has reduced immediate panic, but it has not removed this risk.

Whales Step In With $3.2 Million Buying Spree

While the chart weakened, on-chain behavior told a different story. Large holders aggressively accumulated during the sell-off, treating the governance-driven dip as an opportunity.

Over the past 24 hours, ZEC whales increased their holdings by 4.49%, lifting their total stash to 8,919 ZEC. That implies roughly 381 ZEC added during the dip. Mega whales were even more active. Their holdings jumped 19.2%, bringing their total to 42,786 ZEC, which translates to about 6,905 ZEC accumulated.

Whale Accumulation: Nansen

In total, large holders added roughly 7,286 ZEC. At a spot price, that equals about $3.2 million in fresh buying.

This accumulation coincided with falling exchange balances, suggesting coins were being moved into longer-term storage rather than prepared for resale. That buying pressure explains why Zcash rebounded quickly once the initial panic faded.

Still, accumulation can slow declines and absorb volatility, but it does not automatically reverse a bearish structure.

Falling Development Activity Keeps Zcash Price at a Crossroads

The final variable is development activity. Data shows Zcash’s development score peaked near 21.85 in late December before sliding steadily to around 19.67. That decline began before the governance headlines and has continued since.

Weak Development Activity: Santiment

Historically, Zcash’s strongest rallies have aligned with rising development activity. The recent slowdown helps explain why the price struggled even before the panic sell-off. While governance clarity reduced fear, it did not reverse this underlying trend.

This matters because Zcash remains one of the strongest long-term performers in the market. The token is still up roughly 66% over the past three months and delivered one of the best performances of 2025. For that strength to resume, development activity likely needs to stabilize and turn higher again. That underrated metric can actually save the price.

From a price perspective, Zcash now sits at a decision point. A sustained move above $456 would improve the short-term outlook and reduce breakdown risk. On the downside, a loss of the wedge’s lower trendline would reopen the 30% downside scenario, with $360, $309, and eventually $272 as key levels to watch.

Zcash Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, Zcash is balanced between heavy accumulation and technical fragility. The governance shock created a sharp discount, whales responded decisively, and the next move depends on whether development momentum and price structure can realign.

Bitcoin is trading at a critical inflection point as markets brace for a rare convergence of legal and macroeconomic catalysts. Today, the US Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, a decision that could ripple across global markets just hours after the release of US unemployment data.

Together, the two events have created a compressed, high-risk window for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Bears and Bulls Hold Breath Ahead of a Supreme Court Decision

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $90,383, confined within a narrow trading range that reflects growing uncertainty rather than conviction.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Price action has stalled between clearly defined support held by bulls and overhead resistance defended by bears. However, technical and on-chain data indicate that both sides are entrenched, waiting for clarity.

“This isn’t a routine legal update…Whether broad tariffs imposed under emergency powers were lawful, ~$130B+ in annual tariff revenue potentially challenged…a ruling on authority and structure, not a technical tweak…Even if some tariffs fall, others remain under different statutes. Any rollback would likely be partial, slow, and messy…today doesn’t end tariffs. It defines how much of the current trade regime holds and how uncertain revenue, inflation, and global trade policy become from here,” said analyst Kyle Doops.

Markets Brace for a Binary Macro Shock

The Supreme Court ruling, expected at 10:00 a.m. ET, will determine whether tariffs imposed during the Trump administration are legally valid.

The outcome could act as a macro switch for sentiment. Many market participants have been operating under the assumption that tariffs remain in place, an environment that has shaped inflation expectations, earnings outlooks, and trade-sensitive growth forecasts.

Some traders argue that striking down the tariffs could ultimately be constructive for risk assets.

“If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs today, the local bottom is most likely in for Bitcoin and crypto. Tariffs will be invalidated, markets get clarity, cost pressure eases, corporate earnings outlook improves, and risk-on flows return,” said analyst Fefe Demeny.

However, sentiment is far from uniform. Polymarket data shows a 26% chance of the Court ruling in favor of the tariffs. This highlights how skewed expectations have become, and how violent any repricing could be if markets are caught off guard.

Odds of Supreme Court Ruling in Favor of Trump Tariffs. Source: Polymarket

The legal decision follows closely on the heels of the US unemployment report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to Crypto Rover, the sequencing alone is enough to elevate risk.

“Bitcoin drops back below $90,000 as markets brace for today’s US unemployment report and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs,” he wrote, warning that the next 24 hours could be extremely volatile.

Bulls Defend Below, Bears Cap Above: Here’s Where Buyers and Sellers Could Act

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that bulls are firmly positioned at $87,094, where a large volume of Bitcoin last changed hands. Holders at this level are sitting comfortably in profit, reducing their incentive to sell and making the zone a natural support area rather than an aggressive buying level.

Bitcoin Realized Price Distribution for Bulls. Source: Glassnode.

If price pulls back, this is the first region expected to absorb selling pressure.

Below that, $84,459 represents a secondary bull fallback, where deeper cost-basis support exists if the higher level fails.

On the upside, resistance begins at $90,880. Here, many holders are sitting near breakeven, creating conditions for distribution as price rallies into the zone.

Glassnode data shows even heavier resistance clustered around $92,143, backed by a large concentration of underwater supply that could intensify selling pressure.

Bitcoin Realized Price Distribution for Bears. Source: Glassnode.

Until bulls can reclaim $90,880 decisively, bears retain tactical control of the upside.

Volume Profile Confirms the Standoff

TradingView’s Volume Profile mirrors the same picture. Aggressive buying is concentrated between roughly $89,800 and $90,300, marking bulls’ short-term line of defense (shown with green horizontal bars).

In contrast, repeated selling pressure emerges between $91,200 and $92,000, where bears have consistently capped upside attempts (red horizontal bars).

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The result is a textbook compression structure, where price is squeezed between demand below and supply above, with volatility suppressed not by calm, but by balance.

With Bitcoin wedged between bull-held support and bear-controlled resistance, the market is effectively waiting for permission to move.

A clean break above $92,000 could force bears to cover and trigger momentum expansion. A loss of the $89,500–$90,000 region, however, would expose the market to a deeper retracement toward the high-$80,000s.

The Supreme Court ruling stands as the most immediate catalyst capable of breaking the deadlock, with bulls and bears remaining locked in place, waiting to see which side the macro winds will favor.

If Zcash (ZEC) was one of the winners of 2025, 2026 could become the year for Monero (XMR).

Several factors indicate that XMR has the potential to become a standout performer in 2026. However, the same characteristics also make it a sensitive asset. They may expose users and investors to legal risks.

Stable On-Chain Transaction Demand Over Many Years

The first catalyst comes from XMR’s on-chain transaction demand. This trend appears clearly in blockchain data.

Bitinfocharts data tracks daily transaction counts for the three leading privacy coins over nearly the past three years.

Transaction volumes for ZEC and DASH surged in Q4 2025 and then declined sharply. In contrast, XMR transaction counts have remained stable for many consecutive years.

Zcash, Monero, and Dash Daily Transactions. Source: Bitinfocharts

Stable demand provides a solid foundation for long-term growth and stability. It differs fundamentally from growth driven by short-term hype and speculation.

Additionally, recent reports suggest that over longer time frames, XMR exhibits stronger trading volume and user activity than both ZEC and DASH.

Monero May Avoid Risks Similar to Zcash (ZEC)

The second catalyst comes from signs of strong and consistent developer activity around Monero.

Unlike many projects, Monero (XMR) does not operate under a formal company. A decentralized community of researchers, developers, and volunteers maintains and develops the protocol.

This structure helps XMR avoid risks similar to those faced by the ZEC development team. Many investors believe this factor could support new price highs. This is especially important as investors increasingly avoid assets with centralized governance risks.

“XMR remains the most exciting large-cap alt in my sights for the near future. A decade-long track record of real use as private money, not a hyped speculation play. XMR also avoids the corporate overhang seen with ZEC. A break above all-time highs favors a major upside move,” investor The Crypto Dog said.

Artemis data also shows that Monero’s weekly core developer commits reached 400 in late December last year. This marked an all-time high.

Monero Weekly Core Commits. Source: Artemis

This signal reflects a strong commitment from the development community. It may help build confidence among new investors.

Privacy Becomes Central in the Era of Crypto Tax Reporting

The third catalyst comes from rising demand for privacy as new crypto tax reporting frameworks take effect in 2026.

A BeInCrypto report notes that the European Union’s new DAC8 directive on digital asset tax transparency came into force on January 1, 2026. The rule requires exchanges, brokers, and custodians to report detailed user and transaction data to national tax authorities.

“Monero (XMR) is the ultimate nightmare for tax authorities. It is engineered from the ground up to resist tracking through ring signatures, confidential transactions, and stealth addresses,” investor CR1337 said.

Using XMR to conceal transactions may be considered illegal under many legal frameworks. Even so, this reality still reflects a segment of market demand.

This dynamic resembles two sides of the same coin. As regulatory pressure increases, demand for privacy tools also rises. A market for Monero, therefore, continues to exist, provided the asset delivers real utility aligned with user objectives.

However, acting against government authority and interests also exposes XMR users to legal risks.

The Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 55 in early January 2026, reaching its highest level in around three months.

While this does not yet signal a full altseason, analysts suggest that momentum is building, potentially setting the stage for a broader altcoin rally.

Altcoin Season Index Surges to 3 Month High

The Altcoin Season Index measures periods when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. Specifically, it considers an altcoin season to occur when at least 75% of the top 50 non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day window.

The current reading of 55 points suggests rising altcoin strength. Yet, it falls short of confirming an official altcoin season.

Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchaincenter.net

That said, market watchers are pointing out key signals that support the possibility of an upcoming altcoin season. In a recent post, an analyst said the OTHERS/BTC index has bottomed and is now showing signs of a breakout. According to the analyst, similar conditions in past cycles preceded major altcoin rallies.

Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, noted that the altcoin market is currently behaving exactly as expected. He added that momentum is likely to intensify toward the end of Q1 and into mid-Q2, potentially setting the stage for a broader breakout and accelerated price action.

“The liquidity and business cycles aligning will only accelerate this. 2026 will be the return of altseason,” Dedic said.

Previously, BeInCrypto also highlighted three key signals that could point to a potential altcoin season in 2026. This included bullish divergences forming on weekly altcoin charts, a possible breakout in altcoin dominance outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and high altcoin trading volumes despite weak prices.

Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of Alphractal, provided a different perspective, focusing on the mechanics of capital flow. His analysis suggests mini altcoin seasons arise about every 48 hours, with swings between Bitcoin and altcoin performance every 12 hours.

“In other words, sometimes BTC moves first, and only afterward do altcoins follow. This rotation is exactly how market makers are able to accumulate assets efficiently — rotating capital from BTC to Altcoins and back again,” Wedson explained.

Altcoin Season Speculation Fuels Discussion Around Leading Narratives

As expectations of an altcoin season persist, attention is increasingly shifting toward which sectors could take the lead if it unfolds. According to Kate Miller, meme coins could produce some of the biggest individual winners in the next altcoin season, although only a small number are expected to deliver outsized gains.

“Meme coins will make millionaires in the next Altcoin Season. But only a few of them will do more than a 100X,” she posted.

So far in 2026, meme coins have generally performed well, in line with the broader market’s early rise. Despite a recent pullback, the sector remains in positive territory, with most top tokens posting gains over the past week.

On the other hand, data from Artemis Analytics shows artificial intelligence tokens are leading among altcoins. The AI sector has emerged as one of the strongest performers so far this year, posting a year-to-date gain of 20.9% in weighted average fully diluted market capitalization. This places AI among the top-performing crypto sectors, trailing only the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Crypto Market Sector-Wise Performance. Source: Artemis

Finally, BeInCrypto’s analysis identified decentralized exchange (DEX) tokens as one of the strongest candidates to emerge as early leaders in the next altcoin season. DEXs are showing rising adoption, with their share of spot and perpetual trading volumes increasing relative to centralized exchanges.

At the same time, large investors have been accumulating major DEX tokens during periods of price weakness, signaling early positioning. Additionally, several leading DEX tokens are beginning to trade more independently from Bitcoin.

Ripple has cleared a major regulatory milestone in the UK, yet the XRP price remains largely muted. The company’s UK subsidiary, Ripple Markets UK Ltd., officially received registration from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

This regulatory milestone enables Ripple to operate legally under the country’s regulated financial framework. Despite its significance, XRP is trading up just 0.7% over the last 24 hours.

Why XRP Holders Should Care About Ripple’s UK FCA Registration

Nearly 90% of crypto firms attempting to register with the FCA have failed. This highlights the rigor of the process, while also reflecting Ripple’s achievement.

Despite this news, the XRP price barely moved, trading at $2.10 as of this writing, representing a modest 0.7% surge on the day.

Ripple Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Nonetheless, with this registration, Ripple can work directly with banks and financial institutions in the UK, as it renders the firm a compliant, long-term payments provider.

The approval signals that the UK is serious about integrating crypto firms into its TradFi system rather than pushing them offshore. This message could have far-reaching implications for institutional adoption in the country, much like it did in the US between 2024 and 2025.

Despite the muted reaction in the XRP price, investors ought not write off the milestone as a procedural win for Ripple.

What FCA Approval Means for Ripple

Regulatory clarity has been a persistent overhang, particularly following its prolonged legal battles in the US. The FCA registration demonstrates that Ripple can pass scrutiny in one of the world’s leading financial centers.

This credibility strengthens Ripple’s hand as the UK develops frameworks for integrating crypto into:

Payments

Settlement infrastructure, and

Tokenized financial products.

Being FCA-registered allows Ripple to partner with banks and payment providers that cannot engage with unregulated entities.

Historically, XRP’s price has been more responsive to regulatory developments than to pure market sentiment. Approval from the FCA reduces a major source of doubt, lowers tail risk, and frames Ripple as an adaptable player in the regulatory space.

Therefore, while XRP reacted only modestly to today’s news, subsequent developments associated with this approval could move the price, potentially affecting longstanding trends.

Similarly, XRP community members should also consider the broader market context. The UK is actively consulting on new crypto standards, including the application of the FCA Handbook to crypto firms under CP25/25.

Proposed rules highlight:

Governance

Operational resilience

Financial crime prevention, and

Alignment with traditional finance principles.

Ripple’s registration positions it favorably in this growing framework and increases its likelihood of participating in future payments infrastructure experiments, CBDC pilots, and tokenized settlement systems.

Therefore, traders and institutions may now evaluate XRP with a new lens, considering it less risky than unregistered competitors. Over time, this shift in perception could catalyze broader adoption and increased demand.

The desert heat of Dubai has always been a metaphor for the intensity of the crypto market, unforgiving, radiant, and capable of shifting landscapes overnight. But as the curtains fell on Binance Blockchain Week (BBW), it became clear that the heat this time wasn’t just atmospheric. It was industrial.

For years, the crypto industry wandered, looking for a home that wouldn’t just tolerate it, but would understand it. We’ve seen the rise and fall of various “hubs” from the early days of Zug to the regulatory tightening of Singapore and the legislative stalemate in the United States. However, BBW served as a definitive signal that the center of gravity has shifted.

To peel back the layers of this event, we spoke with two key figures who have watched this evolution from the front lines: Fernando Lillo Aranda, Marketing Director at Zoomex, and Griffin Ardern, Head of BloFin Research & Options Desk. Through their eyes, and an analysis of the trends that dominated the stage, we explore whether the “4th Technology Revolution” has finally found its permanent headquarters.

The Narrative Shift: From Hype to Hard Infrastructure

Walking through the halls of the Coca-Cola Arena, the buzz wasn’t about the next meme coin or a fleeting NFT trend. Instead, the air was thick with the jargon of institutional integration. Three dominant narratives didn’t just define the agenda; they rewrote it.

The Rise of Real-World Assets (RWA)

RWA was the undisputed king of the conference. The conversation has moved past the “can we tokenize a house?” phase into “how do we bring the $100 trillion global bond market onto the chain?” At BBW, we saw a convergence of traditional banking giants and DeFi protocols. The narrative is no longer about “disrupting” banks, but about providing them with a more efficient settlement layer.

AI and Web3: The Symbiotic Brain

If RWA is the body, Artificial Intelligence is the brain. The discussions centered on how blockchain can solve AI’s greatest “black box” problems: data provenance and decentralized compute. In a world where AI models are increasingly centralized by “Big Tech,” the BBW crowd was focused on DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), using crypto incentives to build the hardware power that AI needs to remain open and transparent.

Layer-2s and the Modular Endgame

Technically, the focus has shifted from the “L1 Wars” to the “Execution Layer.” The agenda was dominated by how Ethereum and Bitcoin Layer-2s are finally solving the scalability trilemma. The consensus? The future is modular. We are moving toward a world where the user doesn’t even know which blockchain they are using—the complexity is being abstracted away, leaving only the utility.

A Soberly Bullish Sentiment: The Death of the Moon-Boy

Perhaps the most striking aspect of the event was the overall sentiment. If 2021 was defined by irrational exuberance, 2024/2025 is defined by Sober Bullishness. There was a noticeable absence of the desperate get rich quick energy. Instead, attendees and industry leaders were cautious but deeply optimistic. This “Institutional Bullishness” stems from the fact that the industry has survived its Lehman Brothers moment (FTX) and come out stronger. The sentiment was neutral toward short-term price action but aggressively bullish on long-term adoption. The industry has matured; it no longer needs a daily green candle to justify its existence.

The “Yacht Effect”: Where Capital Actually Flows

While the panels provided the intellectual framework, the networking events, often held on the sleek yachts of the Dubai Marina, provided the capital. Networking at BBW led to a tangible, immediate increase in market demand for specific sectors.

Immediately following the event, we’ve seen a surge in “corridor capital” funds moving from traditional family offices in the Middle East directly into DeFi 2.0 and Bitcoin-native staking projects. The physical proximity of founders to liquidity providers in a tax-neutral environment like Dubai acts as an accelerant. Deals that would take six months in London or New York are being closed over coffee in the DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre) in six days.

Regulation: From Adversary to Architect

One of the most profound shifts at BBW was the role of regulators. In the past, the participation of regulatory bodies often cast a shadow of fear. In Dubai, it provided a shield of credibility.

The presence of VARA (Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority) and global financial watchdogs transformed the tone from one of “permission-seeking” to “partnership-building.” This collaboration has given global financial institutions the “green light” they needed. When a regulator stands on a stage and talks about supporting innovation rather than stifling it, the credibility of the entire asset class rises. It’s no longer a “shadow market”; it’s the new financial standard.

The Verdict: Is Dubai the Indispensable Hub?

The final, and perhaps most important question, is whether the United Arab Emirates has finally won the “Hub Wars.” To answer this, we look at the strategic positioning that makes the region unique.

Fernando Lillo Aranda, Marketing Director at Zoomex, sees the region not just as a location, but as a central pillar of a global shift. For Fernando, the ambition of the UAE is clear:

“I agree that Dubai is taking the position to be one of the top 3 hubs worldwide for every company involved in the blockchain ecosystem,” Aranda notes. “They believe in the 4th Technology Revolution.”

This concept of the “4th Technology Revolution” is vital. It implies that blockchain is not an isolated trend, but a fundamental shift in how the world operates, comparable to the steam engine or the internet. Aranda’s perspective suggests that by embracing this revolution, Dubai isn’t just hosting a party; it’s building the infrastructure for the next century of global commerce.

However, a hub needs more than just startups and “belief” it needs deep, institutional liquidity. This is where Griffin Ardern, Head of BloFin Research & Options Desk, provides a compelling breakdown of the region’s competitive advantage. According to Ardern, the UAE’s success is a combination of friendliness and financial gravity.

“Compared to other regions, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have demonstrated a higher level of friendliness towards cryptocurrencies and offshore finance, with Blockchain Life [and BBW] being examples,” Ardern explains.

He points out that the allure goes far beyond the “crypto-native” crowd. It is about the migration of traditional “Big Money.” Ardern highlights a shift that should make Western financial centers nervous:

“Beyond Blockchain Life, better tax policies and more favourable regulatory policies for crypto companies and offshore financial institutions make Dubai and Abu Dhabi not only one of the world’s crypto hubs but also one of the world’s important offshore financial centres. The presence of hedge fund giants such as Man Group, Brevan Howard, Millennium, and Point72, along with existing local crypto institutions, will further solidify UAE’s importance in the global cryptocurrency industry.”

The mention of names like Millennium and Point72 is crucial. These aren’t “crypto funds”; these are the titans of the traditional hedge fund world. Their presence in the UAE, sitting side-by-side with crypto exchanges and protocol founders, creates a synergy that is currently impossible to find in Europe or the US.

Conclusion: The New World Order of Web3

The conclusion we can draw from Binance Blockchain Week is that the industry has found its “Safe Harbor.” The combination of Fernando Lillo Aranda’s “4th Technology Revolution” and Griffin Ardern’s “Hedge Fund Migration” creates a powerful pincer movement that is pulling the world’s financial center of gravity toward the East.

Dubai has succeeded in solidifying its position not by being “lax,” but by being “clear.” In an industry that thrives on volatility but dies on uncertainty, the clarity provided by the UAE is the most valuable commodity of all.

As the delegates flew out of DXB, the sentiment was clear: the “Wild West” of crypto is over. The era of the Digital East has begun. Whether you are a developer, a market maker, or an institutional investor, the message from BBW was loud and clear: if you aren’t in Dubai, you aren’t in the room where it happens.

Circle’s USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in annual transaction volume for the first time, marking a historic shift in the stablecoin landscape.

For a decade, USDT has reigned as the undisputed king of stablecoins. It still commands a $187 billion market cap—nearly 2.5 times USDC’s $75 billion market cap. Yet 2025 revealed a different story beneath the surface: the smaller stablecoin is now moving more money.

USDC Leads by 39%

According to data from Artemis Analytics, USDC processed $18.3 trillion worth of transfers in 2025, compared to USDT‘s $13.2 trillion—a 39% gap.

Artemis Stablecoin Transfer Volume filters out MEV bot transactions and intra-exchange transfers, isolating the platform’s “organic” on-chain activity. This metric provides an upper bound on actual payments and DeFi usage, rather than raw transaction counts inflated by automated trading. In short, real-world payments, P2P transfers, and DeFi activity count; automated bot trades and exchange wallet reshuffling do not.

USDC processed $18.3 trillion worth of transfers in 2025, compared to USDT’s $13.2 trillion—a 39% gap. Source: Artemis (Edited by BeInCrypto) Why USDC Pulled Ahead

The gap comes down to four factors: how DeFi works, where it’s happening, an unexpected catalyst, and regulatory timing.

1. DeFi Turnover

Analysts attribute the gap largely to how each stablecoin is used. USDC dominates decentralized finance platforms, where traders frequently enter and exit positions. The same dollar gets recycled multiple times through lending protocols and DEX swaps. USDT, by contrast, serves more as a store of value and payment rail—users tend to hold it in wallets rather than move it constantly.

2. The Solana Factor

Solana’s explosive DeFi growth became USDC’s primary engine. The stablecoin now accounts for over 70% of all stablecoins on the network, while USDT remains concentrated on Tron. In Q1 2025 alone, Solana’s total stablecoin supply surged from $5.2 billion to $11.7 billion—a 125% increase driven almost entirely by USDC inflows.

3. The Trump Token Irony

The January 2025 launch of the TRUMP memecoin inadvertently supercharged USDC adoption. The token’s primary liquidity pool on Meteora DEX is paired with USDC, not USDT. This meant traders rushing to buy TRUMP first needed to acquire USDC, creating a demand spike that rippled across Solana’s DeFi ecosystem.

The irony runs deeper: the Trump family launched its own stablecoin, USD1, through World Liberty Financial in March. Yet the TRUMP token they inspired ended up boosting a competitor’s stablecoin.

4. Regulatory Tailwinds

The July passage of the Genius Act in the US established clear legal standards for stablecoin issuers. Industry observers note that USDC’s longstanding emphasis on regulatory compliance and reserve transparency positioned it to benefit most from the new framework. In Europe, USDC’s MiCA compliance has given it an edge amid delisting pressure on several exchanges facing USDT.

A Rising Tide

The USDC surge contributed to record stablecoin activity overall. Total transaction volume reached $33 trillion in 2025, up 72% year over year. Q4 alone saw $11 trillion in flows, accelerating from $8.8 trillion in Q3.

Bloomberg Intelligence projects stablecoin payment flows could reach $56 trillion by 2030, positioning the sector as a major global payment rail alongside traditional networks.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a total $1.128 billion in outflows over three consecutive trading days, nearly reversing the net inflows recorded during the first two trading days of 2026.

Ethereum ETFs also extended a two-day run of net outflows, while several major altcoin ETFs continued to attract fresh inflows on January 8.

Bitcoin ETF Momentum Faces Sharp Reversal

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs closed 2025 on a weak footing. In November, outflows reached $3.48 billion. This was the second-largest monthly outflow on record, narrowly trailing February’s $3.56 billion. Selling pressure eased in December, with net outflows moderating to $1.09 billion.

The new year initially brought renewed momentum. BTC ETFs attracted $471.14 million in net inflows on January 2, followed by an additional $697.25 million on January 5. This marked the largest single-day inflow in nearly three months. Combined, the two sessions generated $1.17 billion in inflows.

However, sentiment quickly reversed. ETFs recorded $243.24 million in outflows on January 6, followed by $486.08 million on January 7, the largest outflow since November 20.

On January 8, another $398.95 million exited the products. This brings the total outflows over three consecutive trading days to $1.128 billion.

“Risk appetite is clearly cooling as investors pull capital from BTC exposure,” Coin Bureau wrote.

BlackRock’s IBIT experienced $193.34 million in net outflows, while Fidelity’s fund saw $120.52 million leave. ETFs from Ark & 21Shares, and Grayscale also posted net outflows. In contrast, WisdomTree’s Bitcoin ETF registered modest inflows, while other products reported no flows.

Spot Ethereum ETFs echoed Bitcoin, notching $159.17 million in net outflows on Thursday. This follows a $98.45 million outflow on the previous day.

Meanwhile, new altcoin ETF offerings showed relative strength. XRP ETFs rebounded with $8.72 million in net inflows on Thursday after their first daily net outflow of $40.8 million on Wednesday. Solana ETFs maintained eight straight days of inflows, adding $13.64 million on Thursday.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Test as Markets Await US Court Decision on Tariffs

The slowdown in ETF demand coincides with recent price weakness in Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency has fallen 1.3% since Monday. It was trading at $90,360 at press time, representing modest gains of 0.38% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Market analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin is currently trading in a no-trade zone. According to Pillows,

“Either Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $92,000 level, or it’ll drop towards the $88,000 zone, which also has a CME gap.”

In a separate post, the analyst stated that markets are likely to determine their direction today, with investor attention focused on a US court ruling regarding President Trump’s tariffs. While a ruling from the high court is not guaranteed, today has been designated as a “decision day” for the release of opinions, fueling speculation that the tariff case could be among those addressed.

Market participants on Polymarket have assigned a roughly 75% likelihood that the court rules against the tariffs. A decision in that direction could compel the Treasury to return an estimated $133 billion to $140 billion to importers.

This development may inject volatility into crypto, equity, and fixed-income markets. However, some analysts suggest the move could signal a bottom.

“If the Supreme Court cancels Trump’s tariffs today, Bitcoin and crypto likely just printed a local bottom. Tariffs gone means less uncertainty. Costs drop, earnings expectations improve, and markets can breathe again. That’s usually when risk assets start moving back up,” Master of Crypto remarked.

Overall, the sharp reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows highlights growing near-term caution among investors, even as select altcoin products continue to see steady demand. With markets awaiting clarity from a potential US court ruling on tariffs, near-term price action is likely to remain sensitive to macro developments.

Altcoins have struggled to establish a sustained uptrend over the past several months. Many investors accumulated alternative cryptocurrencies during Q2 and the first half of Q3 2025, expecting outsized gains once Bitcoin regained strength. That expectation failed to materialize as Bitcoin rallied while most altcoins stagnated.

During that period, capital remained parked in altcoins despite limited upside. Investors largely chose to HODL, anticipating a delayed rotation. Instead, relative weakness persisted, with altcoins underperforming Bitcoin.

Thus, in an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, Michaël van de Poppe highlighted what the past suggests about the future and what the altcoin market could look like in 2026.

The Altcoin Season

October 2025 briefly altered sentiment. Several altcoins registered sharp rallies, reigniting speculation that an altcoin season had finally arrived. That momentum faded quickly. Prices retraced within weeks, erasing gains and reinforcing skepticism across the market.

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Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center

Since then, frustration has intensified. Altcoins continue to print lower lows against Bitcoin pairs. Michaël van de Poppe compared the current environment to Q3 2019 and mid-2015. He noted widespread exhaustion among investors watching other asset classes outperform, which might end in 2026.

“The coming year should be the change of this pattern, in which patient investors will be rewarded for their willingness to take bets within the Web3 ecosystem and therefore, selectively, crypto protocols should be yielding a positive return,” Michael highlighted.

What Should Investors Focus On?

Michael stressed that portfolio construction must be rooted in fundamentals rather than narratives. He warned that chasing trending sectors or single “favorite” protocols introduces unnecessary risk. Market leadership often rotates unexpectedly, especially during transitional phases.

Instead, his approach prioritizes protocols that consistently expand. Development activity, ecosystem growth, and real usage matter more than short-term price performance. According to van de Poppe, these factors eventually drive valuation once sentiment stabilizes.

“I’m looking at protocols which are building technology that is ultimately required within the entire on-chain ecosystem or their entire ecosystem in terms of activity, total value locked and revenues have been growing,” said Michael.

He highlighted Arbitrum (ARB), Chainlink (LINK), and Near Protocol (NEAR) as examples. Each protocol has delivered steady progress over the past year despite broader market weakness. Their ecosystems continued building while prices lagged.

Among the three, Chainlink stands out. Development data shows LINK has significantly outperformed ARB and NEAR. That sustained expansion helped support the launch of a LINK ETF, reinforcing the link between fundamentals and institutional adoption.

Development Activity. Source: Santiment Will These Crypto Narratives Be Big In 2026?

From a macro perspective, van de Poppe remains focused on artificial intelligence, decentralized finance, infrastructure, and DePIN. He believes regulatory developments will eventually unlock growth across these sectors. The CLARITY Act, in particular, could strengthen DeFi participation.

“On top of that, I think that the connection between AI <> Blockchain is going to be more significant, while DePIN (also storage / robotics) are going to see a lot of momentum with the fact that AI is more and more integrated within those systems,” Michael stated further.

Despite that outlook, market data paints a challenging picture. DePIN tokens entered 2025 with a combined valuation of $29.33 billion. As of today, that figure has declined to $11.97 billion, according to CoinGecko. Investor demand remains limited.

DePIN Market Cap. Source: DePINScan

AI-related crypto assets have followed a similar trajectory. Their combined market capitalization fell from $52.3 billion to $19.9 billion over the past year. This decline highlights the gap between long-term potential and near-term adoption.

AI Tokens’ Market Cap. Source: CoinMarketCap How Should Investors Mitigate Potential Losses?

Looking ahead, van de Poppe emphasized disciplined risk management. He acknowledged ongoing bear market risks but argued that crypto has already endured a prolonged four-year downturn. From his perspective, positioning now requires patience rather than aggressive speculation.

“…my gameplan is that I’m remaining positioned with my current portfolio in the markets and, a part of that, will be traded actively, so I’ll remain having the flexibility to be exiting the markets whenever that is required. For any general investor in the markets, have clear invalidation levels (this can be fundamentally, doesn’t have to be technically) where you’re looking to be getting out of the markets,” Michael stated.

Recent Bitcoin declines have largely resulted from liquidation-driven events rather than sustained selling. CoinGlass data shows approximately $2.58 billion in long liquidations concentrated below the $86,000 level. That zone has acted as a temporary stabilizer.

Bitcoin Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass

Thus, caution is suggested if Bitcoin approaches that threshold. A breakdown could trigger cascading sell-offs, dragging altcoins lower. In that scenario, exiting positions would be prudent. Until then, altcoin investors may need to endure continued consolidation as markets reset expectations.

Lighter (LIT) delivered a sharp upside move soon after launch. The token broke out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern and rallied nearly 21%, topping close to $3.26. That upside Lighter price target has now been met, and price action has started to slow down.

What matters now is not the breakout itself, but what the structure looks like after it. Several short-term signals suggest a cooling phase may be developing.

Lighter Price Forms A Fresh Head And Shoulders Pattern

After topping near $3.26, all thanks to a fully successful inverse head-and-shoulders pattern breakout, Lighter’s price began consolidating. On the 4-hour chart, the structure since January 5 resembles a head and shoulders pattern.

Lighter Breakout And Risk: Lighter.XYZ

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The head printed close to $3.26, the immediate swing high. The right shoulder is now forming slightly below that level, showing fading upside strength. This setup often signals downside risk if support fails.

The neckline sits near $2.56. If the LIT price slips under $2.56, the pattern would fully activate.

Breakdown Target: Lighter.XYZ

That move would open the door for an 11% decline. However, for the 11% pattern-led decline to begin, the Lighter price must first fall by 15% from the current price, which is near $3.01.

Capital Flow And Dip Buying Begin To Weaken

Capital flow data helps explain why that risk is rising. Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving an asset, remained positive between January 6 and January 8, even as the price drifted lower. That suggested buyers were still absorbing sell pressure.

Capital Flow Holds, But Weakening: Lighter.XYZ

However, that support is starting to fade. On the 4-hour chart, CMF has rolled over and is moving lower, even though it remains slightly above zero. This shift signals that inflows are slowing rather than strengthening. The lack of aggressive positioning by mega whales (top 100 addresses) over the past 24 hours is also validating the CMF dip. For the price dip theory to fail, these addresses must start picking up.

Big LIT Accumulation Stops: Nansen

Dip buying data adds to the caution. The Money Flow Index has dropped sharply between January 6 and January 9. While price has declined gradually, MFI has fallen much faster. This gap shows dip buying is weak, with traders stepping back instead of defending recent levels.

Dip Buying Weakens: Lighter.XYZ

Together, weakening CMF and falling MFI suggest both capital inflows and buying interest are losing momentum.

Derivatives Positioning And Key Lighter Price Levels To Watch Next

The perp positioning of Lighter leans net short across most cohorts, suggesting a lack of upside bias. Even the net positive (long) positioning of the perp winners is seeing an over 8% decrease. The bias, therefore, doesn’t hint at a price rise expectation.

Derivatives Lean Bearish: Nansen

The LIT price levels now define the outcome. Holding above $2.97 would keep the right shoulder from breaking down. A move below $2.78 would place the structure under pressure. A drop under $2.56 would likely trigger the full bearish move toward the $2.30 zone, the lost launch low.

There is also a clear invalidation level. A strong 4-hour close above $3.26 would cancel the head and shoulders pattern and signal renewed upside strength. A probable short-squeeze, all thanks to the sizeable short positioning, can help with that.

Lighter Price Analysis: Lighter.XYZ

For now, Lighter stands at a key turning point. The earlier 21% breakout has already played out. Without fresh capital inflows and stronger dip buying, the chart suggests a controlled cooldown remains a real risk rather than an immediate continuation higher.

In early 2026, while the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3) rebounded from $825 billion to over $880 billion, marking a gain of more than 7%, Pi Network (PI) remained stagnant around the $0.2 level. Exchange data has not shown any clear signs of a return to demand.

Meanwhile, the Pi Network community has reported growing losses among investors who pursued expectations tied to the GCV price.

Pi Network’s Weekly Trading Volume Hits Record Lows

Data from CoinGecko shows that Pi’s trading volume has fallen to record lows. The weekly volume dropped sharply below $100 million, with daily averages of around $10 million.

By comparison, in March last year, Pi recorded more than $10 billion in weekly trading volume. The current figures represent a decline of over 99%.

Weekly Pi Price and Trading Volume. Source: CoinGecko.

The collapse in trading volume reflects weakening demand for Pi on exchanges. Thin liquidity increases the risk of large price swings, even with relatively small buying or selling pressure.

If prices rise under such low liquidity conditions, the move is unlikely to be sustainable. If prices fall, the same conditions make Pi vulnerable to sharp sell-offs.

Additionally, Piscan data indicate that Pi reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have not declined. Instead, they remain elevated.

Pi Reserves on CEXs by Month. Source: Piscan

On January 9, more than 1.3 million Pi tokens were transferred to exchanges, pushing total exchange reserves to 427 million Pi. Higher exchange balances increase selling pressure. Combined with thin liquidity, this dynamic significantly raises the risk of further price declines.

Pioneers Suffer Losses After Trusting the GCV Theory

One of Pi Network’s most distinctive features is its two-value system. Holders recognize both the market price on exchanges and the GCV (Global Consensus Value), a theoretical valuation.

Supporters promote GCV as a fixed price of $314,159 per Pi, derived from the mathematical constant Pi (π). They encourage users and merchants to accept Pi at this valuation.

However, recent community reports indicate that several investors have suffered severe losses by following the GCV narrative, while Pi’s market price has fallen more than 90% from its peak.

The Pi-focused news account r/PiNetwork highlighted at least two such cases.

One example involves Taufan Kurniawan, who invested 50 million Indonesian rupiah (approximately $3,200) to open a shop serving Pi users. He accepted payments based on the GCV price and expected substantial profits. When the market price collapsed, the business failed, leaving him with heavy losses.

“Merchants using GCV will be bankrupted by their inability to recover funds in the ecosystem. It’s already happening,” r/PiNetwork commented.

Pi’s prolonged price decline and weak liquidity are forcing Pioneers to make a difficult choice: continue holding and pursuing Pi’s long-term vision, or abandon the project altogether.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin continues to publicly support Roman Storm, the lead developer of Tornado Cash.

His latest show of support comes ahead of Storm’s sentencing for operating an unlicensed money transmitting business.

Vitalik Buterin Backs Tornado Cash Developer Roman Storm Amid Conviction and Privacy Debate

Buterin’s endorsement frames privacy tools not as criminal instruments, but as essential safeguards against modern digital surveillance. The Ethereum executive urges the crypto community to advocate for developers facing legal risks.

“Done. Re-posting the contents for public consumption,” he stated, attaching a personal letter supporting Roman Storm.

Storm, convicted in August 2025 of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, faces up to five years in prison and fines of $250,000 or twice the value of the illicit funds.

A jury deadlocked on money laundering and sanctions-related charges, resulting in Storm’s partial acquittal, and Judge Katherine Polk Failla cited his compliance and low flight risk in denying pre-sentencing detention.

Tornado Cash, co-founded by Storm along with Alexey Pertsev and Roman Semenov, uses zero-knowledge proofs to separate blockchain senders from recipients. The platform was sanctioned by the US Treasury in August 2022, which alleged it facilitated laundering by criminal organizations, including North Korean hackers.

The case highlights broader questions about developer liability for decentralized software, especially when such tools have legitimate privacy applications.

In his public letter, Buterin emphasized that privacy tools are crucial for protecting individuals from pervasive online surveillance and the commodification of personal data. He cited personal use of Tornado Cash for anonymous software purchases and donations to human rights organizations, framing the technology as a necessary safeguard rather than a criminal tool.

Vitalik Buterin’s public letter supporting Roman Storm and privacy tools (Source: Vitalik Buterin via X)

“In the 21st century, we are all faced with risks from all corners of the world… Being able to choose with whom we share information… is an essential protection,” read an excerpt in the letter.

The crypto executive also criticized government databases and private corporations for routinely exposing sensitive information, sometimes to foreign adversaries.

Storm Calls for Community Support as Industry and Regulators Eye Privacy Tool Liability

Storm responded to Buterin’s support by thanking him and calling on the crypto community to write letters advocating for the right to build and use open-source privacy software.

Industry backing has also emerged. The Ethereum Foundation and Keyring Network launched a joint initiative to direct protocol fees from Keyring’s zkVerified DeFi vaults for two months to Storm and Pertsev’s legal defense fund, supplemented by an additional $500,000 from the Ethereum Foundation.

The effort highlights growing concerns over the potential chilling effect of prosecuting developers for code use.

Meanwhile, regulatory signals suggest possible evolution. Matthew Galeotti, Acting Head of the DOJ’s Criminal Division, recently indicated that truly decentralized software may reduce developer liability, though these remarks are non-binding.

The comments have raised cautious optimism in the crypto community, but Storm’s upcoming sentencing will be a bellwether for privacy-preserving technology under US law.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December on Friday at 13:30 GMT.

The US Dollar (USD) will likely experience heightened volatility as the employment report could provide key clues about how the Federal Reserve (Fed) will approach policy-making in the new year.

What to Expect From the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 60,000 in December following the 64,000 increase recorded in November. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is seen edging lower to 4.5% from 4.6%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the average hourly earnings, is forecast to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%. 

The monthly report published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that private sector payrolls rose by 41,000 in December following the 29,000 decline recorded in November.

Additionally, the Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 52 after staying in contraction territory, below 50, for six consecutive months.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts said: 

“We look for job gains to stabilize at around the 50k mark over the last two months, with private payrolls printing a 50k gain in December as the government likely shed 10k jobs over the same period. We also expect the unemployment rate to normalize to 4.5% after seeing a shutdown-driven jump to 4.6% in November. Avg. hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y,” they added.

How Will the US December Nonfarm Payrolls Data Affect EUR/USD?

The US Dollar ended the year on a bullish note and kept its footing to begin 2026. Although the Fed adopted a dovish stance at the December policy meeting, market participants see a strong chance of the US central bank to hold the interest rate unchanged at the January meeting. 

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are currently pricing in a less than 15% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month. Nevertheless, the employment data could still influence the odds of a rate cut in March, which currently stands around 45%, and trigger a significant market reaction.

Earlier in the week, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said rate decisions will need to be “finely tuned,” given risks to both unemployment and inflation goals. Barkin noted that the unemployment remains low, but added that they don’t want the job market to deteriorate further. 

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the job market is clearly cooling and added there is a risk the Unemployment Rate can “pop from here.” Rabobank analysts note that the market will be looking to fine-tune its expectations regarding the timing of the next Fed rate cut.

“Currently, the consensus expects steady policy to be maintained this month. Indeed, in view of the split within the FOMC, market pricing suggests risk of steady policy potentially into the spring. A soft payrolls report this week would undermine the USD. That said, we would expect the USD to again exhibit safe haven behaviour this year meaning the potential of support for the greenback. On balance, choppy trading seems likely as the market digests this year’s various events,” they explain.

A significant upside surprise in NFP, with a reading above 80,000, combined with a drop in the Unemployment Rate, could cause investors to lean toward another policy hold in March and boost the USD with the immediate reaction. In this scenario, EUR/USD could come under heavy bearish pressure heading into the weekend.

Conversely, a disappointing NFP print of 30,000 or less could trigger a USD sell-off and allow EUR/USD to turn north. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart dropped below 50 for the first time since late November and EUR/USD closed below the 20-day SMA for four consecutive days, reflecting a buildup of bearish pressure. In case the pair drops below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at 1.1665, and confirms that level as resistance, technical sellers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.1600 (round level) could be seen as an interim support level before 1.1560 (200-day SMA).”

“On the upside, 1.1740 (20-day SMA) acts as dynamic resistance. If EUR/USD manages to stabilize above this level, it could gather recovery momentum and target 1.1800 (static level, round level), followed by 1.1870 (static level).”

South Korea unveiled a comprehensive digital asset strategy on Friday as part of its “2026 Economic Growth Strategy.” This signals a major policy shift from regulation-focused approaches toward institutional adoption and industry development.

The plan encompasses stablecoin legislation, spot ETF approvals, and blockchain-based government payments, marking the country’s most ambitious crypto policy overhaul since the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022.

Stablecoin Framework Takes Shape

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) will finalize the so-called “Digital Asset Phase 2 legislation” within the first quarter of 2026. This will establish a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins.

Under the new rules, stablecoin issuers must obtain government authorization after meeting capital requirements. They will also be required to maintain reserve assets equivalent to at least 100% of issued tokens and guarantee users’ redemption rights.

The framework aims to prevent collapses similar to the 2022 Terra-Luna incident. The crisis wiped out approximately $40 billion in market value and triggered a global regulatory crackdown on algorithmic stablecoins.

The government will also develop regulations for cross-border transactions involving stablecoins. This could open the door to blockchain-based trade settlements and international remittances.

Spot Crypto ETFs on the Horizon

In a significant development for institutional adoption, South Korea confirmed plans to introduce spot digital asset ETFs this year.

The move follows the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024 and similar products in Hong Kong. Until now, Korean regulations have not recognized cryptocurrencies as eligible underlying assets for ETFs, effectively blocking domestic investors from accessing such products.

Market observers expect the approval to accelerate institutional participation, including potential investments from pension funds and corporate treasuries.

Government Embraces Blockchain for Public Finance

Perhaps the most ambitious element of the strategy involves integrating blockchain technology into government operations. By 2030, one-quarter of all national treasury disbursements will be executed using digital currency, specifically deposit tokens.

The government will launch a pilot program in H1 2026. It will apply deposit tokens to subsidies for electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Successful implementation could expand to other vouchers and subsidies.

This approach would enable real-time tracking of fund usage. It could effectively eliminate subsidy fraud while dramatically reducing administrative costs.

Supporting legislation is expected by the end of 2026. This includes amendments to the Bank of Korea Act and the National Treasury Act.

A Turning Point for Korean Crypto Policy

Industry analysts view the announcement as a watershed moment for South Korea’s digital asset landscape.

“This marks the first time the government has officially recognized virtual assets as legitimate financial and fiscal instruments rather than speculative assets,” one market commentator noted.

The comprehensive strategy reflects Korea’s ambition to position itself competitively in the global digital asset race, particularly as major economies accelerate their own regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.