TVBee

The ratio of US stock market capitalization to M2 has surpassed its historical peak (March 2000).

There may be some short-term correction demand in the US stock market.

This is why Brother Bee liquidated his $NVDA position two days ago and dared not go all-in on $MSTR.

The existence of this indicator itself shows that the stock market has a certain dependence on liquidity.

The US stock market can generate liquidity through operations; how much more so for the crypto market?

This is why Brother Bee believes it's a rebound, not a bull market recovery.

There was a minor negative surprise: the US November retail sales and PPI month-on-month figures exceeded expectations.

Despite the government shutdown in early November, retail sales still surpassed expectations.

Fortunately, this is November data, so the timeliness isn't very strong. However, it's not favorable for the Fed's rate cuts.

The US stock market dropped sharply, falling by about 1.35% at its lowest point. However, BTC performed better, even rising to $97,000.

Brother Bee made a brilliant move yesterday—seeing the NVDA daily MACD cross down, he liquidated his NVDA position.

Then he switched the $NVDA investment in his Degate Range Vault to $MSTR. Sure enough, NVDA dropped while $MSTR rose—though it rose too much, going beyond the range, haha.

There's a hint of independent crypto market dynamics. Be cautious of potential pullbacks in short-term crypto contracts. The weekly rebound trend remains solid.

BTC and US stocks may enter a 'mine-clearing' phase

Every time an analysis post is saved, Brother Bee trembles.

Such posts are only saved because they're preparing to settle accounts later.

Previously, BTC reached 92,500, and I advised not to be overly optimistic—just 7 saves on the post. Fortunately, it dropped back the same day. BTC冲上92500，但先别太乐观

Last night, I wrote about CPI being bullish, and the post got 3 saves. At that time, BTC was still falling, but it surged to 96,000 the next day.

Still, I'll boldly predict BTC's next move.

┈┈➤ Three short-term risk points

First, tonight the US Supreme Court may rule on whether Trump's tariff policies are constitutional. The issue isn't whether Trump is guilty, but whether the court will require tariffs to revert to last year's levels. If Trump loses, what actions might he take? He previously hinted that if defeated, he might push for legal changes. The market reaction is uncertain. I suspect the Supreme Court won't allow Trump to restore tariffs to their original state, as that would cause greater political and economic disruption.

Second, will the US attack Iran? If so, how long would the conflict last? Regardless of the strategic impact, the market will likely react bearishly at the start of war. If the conflict drags on, sentiment might shift back to bullish. But this remains a current risk point.

Third, the bipartisan disagreement over healthcare budget legislation that led to the government shutdown in October—both parties still haven't reached consensus. With the short-term budget expiring on January 30th, if no agreement is reached, a government shutdown could happen again. However, the more likely scenario is that both sides fail to agree, pass another short-term budget, keep the government running, and continue negotiations. Still, this is another current risk point.

┈┈➤ US stocks attempting breakout, BTC temporarily broken through

The Nasdaq 100's MACD trend still appears to be building momentum, and RSI hasn't hit 70 yet—US stocks may be trying to break through resistance levels.

BTC's weekly MACD downtrend is also weakening. Let's see if it can hold above 95 going forward.

As always, unless a major negative surprise emerges, each mine cleared may come with an upward trend.

Of course, be cautious of pullbacks on the day a risk materializes.

Lastly, don't dream of a rapid bull market return—current liquidity doesn't support a major bull run.

Good news has arrived. Last month, there were concerns about data quality, but this time the CPI has truly declined.

Both the annual and monthly rates of the overall CPI in December met expectations,
and the core CPI annual and monthly rates were even lower than expected.

The overall CPI index has slightly declined.

Three interest rate cuts occurred from September to December, and Christmas was also experienced, yet the December CPI did not rise.

This reduces concerns about further rate cuts. Of course, we must continue to monitor the CPI data for January.

Additionally, the court ruling on Trump's tariff case may be announced tomorrow.

There could be a rebound, but don't expect a bull market to return.

If you think Trump is only targeting Powell, you might be underestimating Trump.

Since taking office, Trump's every move has been at least a two-for-one strategy.

• Establishing the Department of Government Efficiency: reducing government spending; eliminating rivals; creating an atmosphere of financial strain at the Treasury to justify tariff increases.

• Imposing tariffs: increasing government revenue; improving illegal arms issues in countries like Mexico; suppressing CN.

• BTC strategic reserve: fulfilling election promises; simultaneously benefiting the crypto sector, which in turn helps increase U.S. tax revenue from the Web3 industry; also strengthening stablecoins, thereby increasing demand for U.S. Treasuries.

• Removing Maduro: seeking revenge on oil companies from years past; potentially gaining control over Venezuela's oil production, which could boost oil company profits and tax revenues; supporting increased oil output, possibly lowering oil prices and CPI; indirectly undermining Venezuela's oil buyers and allies, including CN; boosting the dollar's exchange rate and preventing capital outflow after potential U.S. rate cuts.

All of these are multi-purpose moves—Trump is truly the hero of archery.
🤣
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...

If the investigation into Powell proves valid, it's a warning to others; if not, it still serves as a show of force.

Powell was originally nominated by Trump. Facing Trump's need for rate cuts, Powell has not cooperated, so Trump wants to send him a message.

It also serves as a warning to Trump's newly nominated successor.

Meanwhile, it's a deterrent to other Federal Reserve officials.

Overall, this is beneficial in pushing the Fed toward rate cuts, but whether cuts will happen in the first half of the year remains to be seen.

The second half looks slightly more promising—but only slightly. As always, Trump excels at shaping expectations, so don't overreact.

BTC surges past 92,500, but don't be too optimistic

BTC's rise is likely related to the criminal investigation into Powell.

However, this is merely a sentiment-driven positive and does not mean Powell will step down immediately.

Even if a new Fed chair takes office, it doesn't necessarily mean aggressive rate cuts will follow.

The layoffs forecasted in a previous Goldman Sachs report may have already begun.

On January 12, Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy will see strong growth in 2026 alongside moderate inflation, with the Fed cutting rates twice—25 basis points each in June and September.

After all, the current U.S. economy faces two key contradictions: economy vs. employment, and inflation vs. employment.

The core of the economy-employment contradiction lies in AI, but rate cuts may not significantly improve employment. After rate cuts, companies might still channel new liquidity into AI rather than labor.

Moreover, overly rapid rate cuts could potentially worsen inflation.

Trump is highly skilled at shaping market expectations—from tariffs to BTC as strategic reserves, to recent influence on oil prices via Venezuela... markets often overreact to Trump's guidance.

The Fed chair transition also reflects this trend.

We advise crypto enthusiasts to remain cautious.

What faces the Federal Reserve now is poor employment, yet strong economic data.

The strong economic data is due to the development of the AI industry,
poor employment is also due to the impact of AI.

Ah, AI brings success and also brings failure.

Next, let's look at the CPI data from January 13th.

Opened too much $ZAMA at midnight, got liquidated.

Now ZAMA is 1.056, FDV is 1.056b, still not even as much as $H.

Both are in the privacy sector, from the perspective of technology, reputation, influence, funding... which aspect makes these two projects comparable?!

2025: Lean Bull, 2026: Fat Bear

┈┈➤ Why Pay Attention to Macro Liquidity?

╰┈✦ The Crypto Pie Is Getting Larger

As always, from 2013 to 2025, the crypto pie has been growing larger, making its dependence on macro liquidity stronger than ever.

This is why we need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and even the U.S. government's fiscal policy.

╰┈✦ The Sole Source of Crypto Growth

Cryptocurrencies differ from stocks.

Stocks grow due to corporate profits and liquidity expansion, but for most cryptocurrencies, the primary driver of growth is liquidity expansion.

┈┈➤ 2025: Lean Bull

Although the Fed cut rates three times in both 2024 and 2025, can you believe it? The current Fed interest rate is actually higher than the peak rates in 2018 and 2022.

Due to insufficient liquidity, 2025 experienced a lean bull market. BTC, as a vital organ of the bull, rose but reached only a modest peak.

Altcoins, as less important parts of the bull, were trimmed away.

┈┈➤ 2026: Fat Bear

In 2026, the Fed has stopped balance sheet contraction.

On interest rate policy, the Fed may not cut rates in the first half of the year, or may occasionally do so. In the second half, rate cuts of 2 to 3 times are possible.

On money supply, the Fed may occasionally release some liquidity through other means.

On fiscal policy, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account can inject liquidity into society through government purchases and transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, unemployment benefits, tax refunds, subsidies, etc.).

In 2025, under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, the Treasury collected approximately $11.8 billion more in tariff revenue than in 2024.

Of course, this liquidity is not enough to reverse the bear market.

But the good news is that 2026 could be a fat bear market.

With marginal growth in liquidity, or at least expectations of such growth, this bear market may be relatively more optimistic.

Lowering interest rates still works.

The rise from July to early October was priced in for the rate cuts in September to December 2025.

The decline from October to November was priced in for the no rate cut in January 2026.

The sideways movement since December reflects uncertainty about rate cuts in March to April 2026.

Expectations are ahead of the actual rate cuts.

This is why Brother Bee believes Q1 is uncertain, but Q2 might be better, as Powell's term ends in May, and a new chair will take office in June (basically no ifs).

December non-farm data showed no clear bullish or bearish impact, but wage data exceeded expectations

▌Non-farm employment fell short of expectations, but unemployment rate improved

December non-farm employment was 50,000, below the expected 60,000 and the previous figure of 56,000.

Unemployment rate was 4.4%, below the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.5%.

▌The trend of a weak job market remains unchanged

Overall, employment is declining, yet the unemployment rate is also declining, which is not contradictory due to the falling labor participation rate.

Non-farm employment continues to be in a downward trend.

December's unemployment rate improved slightly, but one month's data is insufficient to reverse the trend of a weak job market.

Manufacturing employment declined by 8,000, worse than the expected -5,000 and last month's -2,000. Thus, the U.S. job market remains weak.

▌Contradiction between employment and economy

Previous Q3 GDP growth indicated a positive economic trend. However, employment and economic trends are currently contradictory.

This may be due to the impact of AI development on the job market, rather than an economic downturn in the U.S.

▌Wages exceeded expectations

Both annual and monthly wage growth exceeded expectations.

Annual wage growth was 3.8%, above the expected 3.6% and the previous 3.6%.

Monthly wage growth was 0.3%, above the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.2%.

Wage costs are part of commodity costs. Exceeding expectations in wages raises concerns about whether CPI might also exceed expectations?

▌Final thoughts

Overall, employment and economy showed no clear bullish or bearish signals.

Additionally, tonight's Supreme Court verdict on Trump may be announced, and the market reaction is uncertain.

In fact, the Federal Reserve is aware of the weak job market. The Fed has hesitated to implement significant monetary easing, mainly due to concerns about CPI rebounding. The focus will now shift to the CPI data on January 13.

Typically, CPI and wages are somewhat correlated. Given the wage growth exceeded expectations, it may be prudent to anticipate a potential CPI surprise on January 13.

DeepNodeAI ($DN) has launched on Binance Alpha
Checked out @DeepNodeAI's token economics model

Currently, the price of $DN is around $1.4, corresponding to an FDV of $140 million and a circulating market cap of $31.5 million.

▌ Main applications of $DN include:

① Staking to earn rewards
② Vesting, rewarding contributors to the DeepNode platform
③ Payment, to access different AI models
④ Holding, to participate in governance decision-making within the ecosystem

▌ Token distribution

Total supply of $DN: 100 million tokens

50% Community (emission + grants)
10% Liquidity
10% Treasury
15% Team and advisors
15% Early supporters and airdrop
Among these: 8% Seed round, 4% Strategic round, 1% Private sale, 2% Airdrop

▌ Token release schedule

Brother Bee analyzed the token release chart roughly.

Team and advisors: locked for 2 years, then linearly released over the next 2 years.

Seed round, strategic round, and private sale: locked for 1 year. Seed round approximately linearly released over 12 months, strategic round gradually released over 9 months, private sale gradually released over 6 months.

Treasury: small portion released in the first year, then unlocked over the next 2 years.

Community: approximately 12.5% released at TGE, then another ~2.5% released between April 2026 and January 2027, with faster releases after January 2027.

Before April 2026, the release is relatively low, totaling about 22.5%, which includes 10% used for adding liquidity. Therefore, the selling pressure before April 2026 is about 12.5% of the total supply.

After April 2026, the release slightly increases; estimating from the chart, by the end of 2026, a total of 27.5% will be released. After subtracting the 10% allocated for liquidity, the remaining part is 17.5%. Thus, the new selling pressure after April 2026 is about 5% of the total supply.

Overall, the release in 2026 is relatively low.

Binance has launched perpetual contracts for gold and silver!

Binance Perpetual Contracts have introduced a new TradeFi section:

Gold perpetual contract XAUUSDT, leverage from 1x to 75x
Silver perpetual contract XAGUSDT, leverage from 1x to 20x

The gold perpetual contract was launched on December 11 last year, with a total trading volume of approximately $87 million and an average daily trading volume of around $3 million.

The silver perpetual contract was launched yesterday (January 7). Within less than 16 hours of opening, the trading volume exceeded $18 million.

I tried it out—trading Binance's gold and silver perpetual contracts is possible even during US stock market closing hours, suggesting they are available 7 days a week, 24 hours a day.

For those interested in trading gold and silver, this is finally a safe, deep, and familiar trading environment!

Looking forward to Binance's TradeFi section offering even more products in the future!!!

The non-farm payroll data

The number of jobs is lower than expected,
but the number of jobs is better than last month,
but, it still hasn't reversed the overall trend of declining employment.

It's important to know that this is the non-farm payroll number for December, data after three rate cuts from September to December.

The data is compiled by ADP, a human resources management and payroll processing service company established in 1949, which is not affected by the government shutdown.

Overall, it's not particularly favorable, but there is definitely no negative impact.

Let's look at the official data from the Department of Labor tomorrow.

There's a truth that might be painful: the poorer you are in the crypto world, the more likely you are to lose money.

The poorer you are, the more desperate you become to make a quick comeback, and the more gambling mentality you develop.

As a result, the poorer you are, the weaker your risk tolerance becomes, your mental resilience deteriorates, and you're more prone to letting emotions interfere with your trading decisions.

The key to breaking the cycle may lie in two aspects:

First, try to secure an income source that offers good cost-effectiveness and relative stability. Working a regular job won't make you rich overnight, but it provides a foundation for risk resistance and mental well-being. By 'good cost-effectiveness,' we mean the income can cover basic living expenses and doesn't consume too much energy, leaving you with enough mental capacity to engage in trading.

Second, practice proper position and emotional management. Divide your capital into three parts: one part in stablecoins (U), kept as a precautionary reserve; the second part for steady investments, such as BTC; and the third part for riskier investments, used for high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Choose what to buy—MEME, Perp, altcoins, or even U.S. stocks—based on your interests and trading style.

Emotional management comes on top of position management. As for how exactly to manage emotions, Brother Bee doesn't know—he admits this is his biggest weakness.

There's a truth that might be painful: the poorer you are in the crypto world, the more likely you are to lose money.

The poorer you are, the more desperate you become to make a quick comeback, and the more gambling mentality you develop.

As a result, the poorer you are, the weaker your risk tolerance becomes, your mental resilience deteriorates, and you're more prone to letting emotions interfere with your trading decisions.

The key to breaking the cycle may lie in two aspects:

First, try to secure an income source that offers good cost-effectiveness and relative stability. Working a regular job won't make you rich overnight, but it provides a foundation for risk resistance and mental well-being. By 'good cost-effectiveness,' we mean the income can cover basic living expenses and doesn't consume too much energy, leaving you with enough mental capacity to engage in trading.

Second, practice proper position and emotional management. Divide your capital into three parts: one part in stablecoins (U), kept as a precautionary reserve; the second part for steady investments, such as BTC; and the third part for riskier investments, used for high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Choose what to buy—MEME, Perp, altcoins, or even U.S. stocks—based on your interests and trading style.

Emotional management comes on top of position management. As for how exactly to manage emotions, Brother Bee doesn't know—he admits this is his biggest weakness.

Aren't there some personalities just unsuitable for trading?!

Let me show everyone Brother Bee's order placements for $BREV in one night.

Knowing that brevis could potentially exceed $prove, he still placed a sell order at 0.5, which was later canceled.

The final trades were:
0.377 sell, 0.3886 buy back
0.338 sell, 0.335 buy back
0.471 sold.

Yet he kept placing and canceling orders... Take a look at Brother Bee's order placements—this personality, do you believe it now? Some people are truly indecisive and lack consistency between knowledge and action.

The most important thing in trading is really mindset, secondly comes technique, analysis, and so on.

Trump achieves multiple goals simultaneously, wanting both fish and bear's paw

Goal 1: History. Previously, Venezuela halted cooperation and confiscated the facilities of American oil companies; Trump completed his "revenge."

Goal 2: Geopolitics. Securing a partner for CN.

Goal 3: Economy. Trump may promote American oil's entry into Venezuela; if economically viable, he might increase oil production to lower prices and reduce the US CPI.

Goal 4: Finance. If profitable, American oil companies could extract more crude oil in Venezuela and transport it to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico to sell refined products, allowing the federal government to collect more taxes.

Goal 5: Trump's midterm elections. Trump's approval rating has risen to 42%, positively impacting his midterm elections in the second half of this year.

Goal 6: To lower interest rates while trying to maintain the exchange rate.

A series of Trump's recent actions may benefit the dollar. On January 5, the dollar index fell, but the USD/CNY exchange rate increased.

One of Trump's main initiatives is to lower interest rates, partly motivated by the desire to reduce financing costs for US debt. However, lowering rates may also lead to a decrease in the dollar's exchange rate. This results in lower real returns for overseas investors, necessitating higher coupon rates to attract them, which in turn raises the financing costs for US debt.

Thus, Trump strengthens the dollar through a series of military-related actions, benefiting the dollar's exchange rate and somewhat offsetting the negative impact of lower rates on the dollar's exchange rate. At least in the short term, this may help increase confidence in the dollar and reduce excessive downward pressure on the dollar's exchange rate due to expectations of lower rates.

What Trump wants is to lower interest rates while trying not to let the exchange rate fall, which can be said to be wanting both.

You wouldn't believe it, but Tian Pujun is exactly like Venezuela!

One has a young appearance
One has a large amount of crude oil

One's appearance isn't particularly beautiful
One has quantity in crude oil but lacks quality

One claims to be an independent woman
One wants independent sovereignty

One's young appearance will inevitably age
One's large amount of crude oil will eventually run out

One leverages youth to combine with big shots
One leverages crude oil to cooperate with major powers

One's entrepreneurial transformation has not succeeded
One's technological transformation has not succeeded

It's really exactly the same!!

Those who rely on natural resources as their core competitiveness often don't last long.
Because natural resources are often limited.

Transforming natural resources into sustainable skills is the long-term solution.

This applies to people, and it applies to countries as well.

Zhang Zetian is an example of a successful transformation from beauty to entrepreneur.
You tell the story of resource-rich countries taking off!