云恒de日记

August 22 Daily Analysis
Yesterday, the market surged first and then dropped, with significant intraday fluctuations. The high was capped near the 114,700 level, failing to break through and test the 115,000 area as expected. The intraday market faced upward resistance and has entered a weak correction phase. It is currently near the 112,600 level, and further downward movement is possible. This indicates that there is still a risk of a pullback in the intraday market, and blind heavy buying is not advised. Light positions may be attempted multiple times. The overall outlook remains upward. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is characterized by high-level oscillation. The MACD remains below the zero line, with green bars shortening but not yet turning red, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened but still dominates. The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines are close to merging, showing weak momentum. The RSI value is 34.17, near the oversold area, indicating a demand for a technical rebound. Therefore, the focus today is on high selling and low buying. (Defense is crucial)

Buy near the pullback at the 111,900 to 112,400 level.
Target near the 113,400 to 113,900 level.
Buy near the pullback at the 4,200 to 4,230 level.
Target near the 4,270 to 4,300 level.

Intraday Analysis on 8.21
The big 🫓 intraday market ↑ is as expected, the low point touched 112300, followed by an upward movement to break through the 114000 line, with a slight rebound running around the 114500 line, entering a consolidation and repair phase. If the market breaks out upwards later, there will be further ↑. However, the market has not stabilized at the 115000 line and still faces downside ↓ risks; if it breaks, one can consider chasing the rise. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation belongs to high-level fluctuations,
MACD convergence, green bars shortening, bearish momentum weakening, with a golden cross indication. RSI value at 42.55, in the neutral zone, has not entered overbought or oversold territory, reflecting market sentiment leaning towards fluctuations. In light of this, maintain a high-low strategy today. (Defense is crucial)

Pull back near the 113200—113700 line to go long.
Target around 114600—115500 line.
Pull back near the 4260—4290 line to go long.
Target around 4350—4380 line.

Analysis for the 8.20 Day
Major upward movement is hindered at the critical position of 116,000↓, the strength of the bulls is starting to drop significantly↓. So far, it has already fallen below the support at 113,000, touching near the line of 112,600 at lower levels. If it breaks down again, the support will move down to previous lows. The trend shows slow rises and fast falls, but there is also a sign of weakness due to insufficient bullish supply. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation belongs to high-level fluctuations,
The MACD histogram continues to show negative values, remaining below the zero line, indicating that the overall state is still weak, but bullish momentum has slowed down. The RSI value hovers around 30, nearing the oversold zone, which may indicate a technical rebound demand, but it has not yet entered a trending market. Given this point, maintain a focus on high resistance and low support for the day. (Defense is crucial)

Pull back near the line of 112,400—112,900 to go bullish
Target looks at the area around 113,600—114,100
Pull back near the line of 4,040—4,060 to go bullish
Target looks at the area around 4,160—4,140

Analysis for August 19
Yesterday's large movement was as expected, rising from 117,000 to around 186,000 before dropping to around 114,600. Then it rose to around 116,800, showing clear signs of sideways consolidation. After stopping profits at noon yesterday, I gradually entered at 115,000 in batches, with half a position already exited at 116,000. The remaining position is prepared to exit in batches at 117,000 and 120,000. If it continues to drop to 114,600, I will continue to add. Overall, the outlook remains upward. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is characterized by high-level fluctuations. The MACD continues to diverge downward, with bearish momentum still dominating, but the shortening of green bars indicates signs of weakening. The RSI value is 41.2, in a neutral to weak area, with no obvious oversold signals. Given this, the focus today is mainly on high selling and low buying. (Defense is crucial)

Buy on pullback near 114,600 to 115,000
Target around 117,000 to 117,400
Buy on pullback near 4,260 to 4,280
Target around 4,460 to 4,480

August 18 Daily Analysis
The weekend still tends to be in a volatile pattern, without much analysis. As mentioned on Friday, after a significant decline to 116,800, it rebounded to around 118,500. After a slight rebound, it declined again to around 1,175,000 in the evening until dawn, with intense fluctuations. Personally, I believe there are signs of stabilization in the price adjustment. If there is another bullish close during the day, there is hope for further gains. I maintain an upward trend view, with long positions entering at 117,000 and part of the take-profit can continue to rise. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.
From a technical perspective, the overall situation is characterized by high-level volatility. Although the MACD is below the zero line and the histogram is shortening, the bearish momentum is weakening. The RSI value is 42, not entering the oversold zone, indicating still some room for decline. I will continue to maintain a pattern of first going down and then up, primarily keeping high volatility and low fluctuations during the day. (Defense is crucial)
For a pullback near the 116,800-117,300 range, the target for fluctuations is around the 118,800-118,600 range, with a pullback target near the 4,430-4,460 range looking towards the 4,510-4,540 range.

Last night, the market experienced a sell-off due to negative news. It's important to understand that market movements driven by news usually lack continuity.

This deep correction is essentially to accumulate strength for a smoother rise in the future. From the current situation, the upward pattern has not changed, and the overall outlook remains bullish.

Analysis for August 15
After reaching a historical high yesterday, it faced resistance and pulled back near the 12w4 line. I entered a small position at 12w2 and exited with a small loss, then chased in at 12w1 but regrettably closed it early. The PPI data shock caused the situation to continue to decline, impacting interest rate cut expectations. Currently, it is consolidating near the 11w8 line, and it is expected to decline first and then rise. I have always emphasized that defense is the most important; there is no guaranteed profit, but one can reduce losses. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is characterized by high-level fluctuations. The MACD histogram remains negative but is gradually shortening, with the fast and slow lines approaching below the zero axis, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI value hovers around 43, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, reflecting a relatively stable current market sentiment. After significant volatility, it begins to enter a consolidation phase, maintaining a strategy of high positions and low entries during the day. (Defense is crucial)

Rebound near the 11w7 to 11w75 line for entry
Targeting around the 11w88 – 12w93 line
Rebound near the 4450 – 4470 line for entry
Targeting around the 4580 – 4600 line

Analysis for 8.14
Trump's tariff delay once again drives the market upward, effectively breaking through new highs, currently approaching the 124,000 line, with no upper reference. If it breaks through the 125,000 barrier during the day, the increase is expected to continue; otherwise, it will maintain a consolidation phase. Personally, I feel it will first ↓ and then ↑. Please adjust flexibly based on market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is at a high level, with a six-day upward trend, strong bullish sentiment, and a relatively good upper channel. The MACD is operating above the zero axis, and the RSI value is 73.88, indicating an overbought area, so be cautious of short-term pullback risks; however, the overall trend remains strong. Given this, maintain a low position during the day. (Defense is crucial)

Rebound near the 122,000 to 112,500 line for a position.
Target around 124,600 to 125,000 line.
Rebound near the 4,700 to 4,720 line for a position.
Target around 4,800 to 4,820 line.

8.13 Daily Analysis
Previously mentioned near the 11.8 line that a breakthrough of the 120,000 mark was expected, which has now been realized with over 2,000 instances, having sold half of the position and continued to hold. Currently, the big 🫓 big pancake is in a fluctuating pattern, with key support at 118,000 and resistance at 122,000, the directional choice is still unclear. Further confirmation of a breakthrough is needed.
Yunheng believes that a small-level pullback may provide enough momentum to continue ↑, while the large level continues to look ↑. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall situation is considered high-level. The MACD green bars are shortening, indicating a weakening of the downward momentum; however, it has not yet crossed golden. RSI: current value 59.75, close to the overbought area, but has not entered a strong trend zone, and may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Given this, it is advisable to maintain a strategy of selling high and buying low during the day. (Defense is crucial)

Pull back near the 118,800 to 118,860 line to trade long.
Target around the 119,600 – 121,000 line.
Pull back near the 4,520 to 4,540 line to trade long.
Target around the 4,650 – 4,630 line.
(Conversely, trade short)

Analysis for 8.11
The major cryptocurrency has significantly changed its previous downward trend, continuously moving upward to test upper support on 8.11. During the weekend, it maintained a fluctuating upward movement, briefly pausing around the 118,000 mark. Both on the monthly and weekly charts, the major cryptocurrency shows signs of reaching previous highs, and market sentiment is gradually returning. On the daily chart, the major cryptocurrency has completed a V-shaped reversal. The upper resistance is seen at 119,000, and I personally believe it is likely to break through 120,000.

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend is at a high level. The MACD red bars continue to expand, with the fast and slow lines diverging upward. The daily MACD is also in a golden cross state. The RSI is at 67.5, approaching the overbought area, but has not yet fully entered extreme values and still has some upward space; it is advisable to cautiously trade, avoiding excessive leverage, and to maintain a low-risk approach during the day. (Defense is crucial)

Look to buy around the 117,900 to 118,400 range on pullbacks.
Targeting near the 119,500 to 120,000 range.
Look to buy around the 4,180 to 4,200 range on pullbacks.
Targeting near the 4,260 to 4,280 range.

Analysis for October 8
As expected yesterday, it dropped to around 114,200 after reaching 116,700, followed by a sharp rise, hitting a ceiling at 116,500, then exited the light position. In the early morning, it directly rose to around 117,600 again, reaching a high point. The market is unlikely to experience sharp rises or falls in a short time; it will simply oscillate within a small range. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall trend is characterized by high-level oscillation. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the MACD is expanding upwards, but the histogram is starting to shorten, indicating weakening momentum. The daily candlestick has a long upper shadow, and the RSI has fallen back to around 68, suggesting possible adjustments in the short term. Light positions can be tested, but avoid blindly holding heavy positions, maintaining a high position during the day is key. (Defense is crucial)

For rebounds, position near 117,900 to 117,500
Target around 116,600 to 116,560
For rebounds near 3,930 to 3,900
Target around 3,840 to 3,810

Analysis within 8.7 days
The Bitcoin price fell as expected yesterday↓ and then rose to around 115,600. As anticipated, after securing profits, it did not maintain a good entry point and did not form a double bottom at the bottom before starting to correct. Now, we are waiting to see if there will be another opportunity to↓. As long as the previous high of 116,000 forms a double top structure, we can attempt to enter in batches. Regardless of whether there is an opportunity or not, this week 115,500 has already consumed several thousand points, and the remaining opportunities are just icing on the cake. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall trend is characterized by high-level fluctuations. The MACD fast line is below the slow line, indicating a downward trend, with the red line bars shortening. The KDJ is at a low level, indicating market overselling, and a rebound is expected in the short term. During this period, maintain a focus on high and low points. (Defense is crucial)

For a rebound near 115,700 to 115,200, look to go long.
Target at around 113,800 to 113,300.
For a rebound near 3,700 to 3,685, look to go long.
Target at around 3,640 to 3,610.

Analysis for October 8
The large 🫓 mentioned the fluctuations around 115,000 the day before yesterday and yesterday. The levels I've provided are quite clear. Some students at 119,000 are still holding, while most are around 115,550, and the rest are being sold off in batches. As for where to sell in batches, please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall wide fluctuations show that the MACD histogram has turned from red to green, and both the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis. The momentum is weakening but has not completely reversed. The RSI value is 45.15, which is in a neutral to weak area, showing no signals of overbought or oversold in the short term. Given this point, maintain a focus on high and low during the day. (Defense is crucial)

For a rebound, sell around the 115,500 to 114,200 line.
Target around 113,100 to 112,600.
For a rebound near the 3,700 to 3,685 line, sell.
Target around the 3,660 to 3,640 line.

Analysis within 8.5 Days
The overall situation is improving with a major rebound continuing during the day. We are testing whether it can stabilize around 115,000. Personally, I feel we are beginning to enter a high-level consolidation phase. Moving forward, pay close attention to the resistance around 116,800. If it can stabilize and rise, the trend may return to an upward posture. In the short term, avoid blindly chasing upward movements, and be cautious of potential downward pressure. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall wide fluctuations are analyzed. The MACD histogram has turned positive, and the fast and slow lines are beginning to converge towards the zero axis, indicating an increase in bullish momentum; however, the daily level is still hovering at a low position and has not fully reversed the bearish pattern. The RSI is at 52.70, close to the neutral zone, showing that the market currently has no obvious overbought or oversold signals. Given this, maintain a focus on high-level consolidation and low-level upward movements during the day. (Defense is crucial)

For rebounds around 116,000 to 115,500, aim for consolidation.
Target around 114,100 to 113,500.
For rebounds around 3,730 to 3,710, aim for consolidation.
Target around 3,670 to 3,640.

The day lily has bloomed, the fragrance fills the garden
How many people see the flowers bloom #Bitcoin #eth #Bitcoin market looking at support 114,000

8.1 Daily Analysis

🫓 Yesterday's overall trend maintained the expected downward movement. The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates, and Trump loudly called for a rate cut that did not materialize, resulting in a decline in Bitcoin. The previous range of fluctuations has been broken, with support moving down to the 115,000 position. The intraday trend continued to correct in the early hours, and the current price is running around the 116,500 level. The daily chart still shows a weak consolidation phase, so please adjust flexibly according to market trends during the wide fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, the overall wide fluctuations show that the MACD green bars continue to expand, but there is a reduction. The RSI is at 34.6, close to the oversold zone, indicating a potential short-term technical rebound demand.
At this point, maintain a focus on high short and low long positions during the day. (Defense is crucial)

For the rebound, consider shorting around the 119,000 to 118,600 line.
Target around the 115,000 to 114,500 line.
For the rebound, consider shorting around the 3,870 to 3,850 line.
Target around the 3,670 to 3,650 line.

July 31st Intraday Analysis
The market has made a wide-ranging correction over the past week, fluctuating in a range of a few thousand points as expected, currently around the 118,300 position. The likelihood of continued weak oscillation within this range is high, please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall wide oscillation shows that the MACD is below the zero line, with bearish momentum weakening but not completely disappearing; the daily MACD green bars are shortening, which may indicate a repair phase.
The RSI is at 52.67, close to the neutral zone, temporarily balanced; the daily RSI shows slight weakness, hovering around 50, with intraday activity primarily focusing on high and low fluctuations around this point. (Defense is crucial)

For rebounds near 119,300 to 119,270, consider shorting.
Target around 117,800 to 117,730.
For rebounds near 3,870 to 3,850, consider shorting.
Target around 3,785 to 3,760.

July 30th Analysis
Recently, there has been a fluctuation of over two thousand points, with both sides stuck in a high-level consolidation. The early morning market saw another attempt to push higher, repeatedly facing pressure at the 118,000 position, with resistance from above still quite strong. Please adjust flexibly according to market trends.

From a technical perspective, the overall wide-range oscillation is analyzed. The MACD histogram shortens after turning from green to red, indicating weakening momentum; the daily death cross state continues, with the RSI hovering around 50, showing no obvious overbought or oversold signals; the daily level has retreated from the overbought zone to a neutral level, with a weak trend. Given this context, maintain a high-low strategy for the day. (Defensive strategy is crucial)

Make a high position near the rebound of 119,300 - 118,600 line
Target looks at 117,800 - 117,300 line
Make a high position near the rebound of 3,875 - 3,850 line
Target looks at 3,765 - 3,730 line

July 29 Market Analysis
Yesterday, the market showed an upward trend, approaching the 120,000 mark, touching around 119,800 and facing downward pressure. From the afternoon to midnight, the market began a pullback. Currently, the price is around 118,000, with the upward momentum weakening, entering a consolidation phase. Yunheng expects pressure to cause a further pullback to support levels, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern.

From a technical analysis perspective, the overall wide fluctuation continues. The MACD is diverging downward, and the daily line is also below the zero axis, indicating a weak market. The RSI value is hovering around 42, suggesting a potential technical rebound demand in the short term, reflecting weak market sentiment. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain a focus on high and low fluctuations during the day. (Defense is crucial)

Rebound near 119,300 to 119,860 for a long position
Targeting around 117,800 to 117,300
Rebound near 3,850 to 3,820 for a long position
Targeting around 3,765 to 3,730

Analysis within 7.25 days
Recently, as expected, Bitcoin has maintained a wide range of fluctuations, with movements up and down exceeding a thousand points. I personally believe that this oscillating market will continue. Currently, we are close to the upper resistance, and if we cannot break through the resistance area around 120,000, we may see a pullback towards support again. On the contrary, if we break through and stabilize, it is expected to open up space above. The upward momentum is not yet clear, but the short-term pattern is relatively clear; please adjust flexibly based on market trends.

From a technical standpoint, the overall wide fluctuations are analyzed: the MACD has a death cross pointing downwards, with green bars increasing. The short-term momentum is currently dominant, and the daily level is still hovering near the zero line. The RSI value is 46, not in the oversold area, but leaning weak; the daily RSI is close to 50, indicating that the trend direction is unclear. I personally suggest that it is safer to operate at high levels. Therefore, I recommend maintaining a strategy of high positions and low shorting during the day. (Defense is crucial)

For rebounds around the 119,500 to 119,900 line, consider going long.
Targets are set around the 117,600 to 117,100 line.
For rebounds around the 3,740 to 3,720 line, consider going long.
Targets are set around the 3,680 to 3,665 line.