张不烦

The current trend of Bitcoin is completely consistent with the trends of 2017 and 2021.
According to this chart, BTC will crash in 10 days.
Are you ready? #btc

The market never rewards smart people, only those with unique personalities;

Extremely patient people, extremely faithful people, extremely calm people, extremely optimistic people;

Annual return of Bitcoin since 2010

When the rebound occurs, the selling pressure is already queuing up.
Looking at the exchange data makes it even more intuitive. During the rebound, XRP continues to flow into exchanges.
Those who understand know: coins flow to exchanges, they are basically not meant to be stored for retirement.
What does this indicate?
When prices rise, the selling pressure is always present. Many people have endured a few weeks of volatility, and when they finally see a profit, their first reaction is not to "hold on", but rather - to secure profits first.
This behavior usually has only one result: it is difficult for the market to break through all at once; it can only be pulled back and forth at resistance levels.

At this position, the taste really feels a bit like the end of 2022.

Insiders:
Every day staring at the market until questioning life, the chat group is as quiet as Qingming Festival, every other word is 'it's over' or 'there's no hope'.

Outsiders:
Suddenly someone pops up and asks: 'Hey, can I buy Bitcoin now? How do I open an account?'

I've been the same lately, friends in the real economy are coming one by one to ask me how to buy $BTC.
They didn't ask during the bull market, but once it dropped by half, they started to study seriously. Humans really have no resistance to the phrase 'on sale'.

From the highest point, it has already been cut in half.
Theoretically, in a bear market, it could certainly be cut in half again—
After all, the cryptocurrency world is all about 'teaching you what real risk education is'.

But interestingly,
as the price goes down, the long-term risk-reward ratio actually gets better.
Others see 'how much more can it drop',
I see 'if it drops more, how much more can I buy'.

Anyway, I don't believe the cryptocurrency market will go to zero.
If it really goes to zero, then I can say I've witnessed history—
In the future, I can tell my grandson:
'Grandpa didn't not try hard, it's just that the market tried too hard.' 🥲

You all talk about the Spring Festival market, good thing I didn't believe it, otherwise I would have to work a few more jobs next year.

Finally came down. If it doesn't come down, we have to wonder what is behind this wave of data..

Figure 1 Currently, the price is still operating in oscillation according to the order book imbalance color bands..

Figure 2 Just now, Binance sold spot again, CVD -2000, the price still maintains a strong position around 68k..
But in a bear market, we don't do bullish divergences.. So for now, not going to do much here..
After all, the lower color bands haven't appeared yet, and we haven't reached the real demand zone..
Let's first take some profits on the short positions that entered the upper color band area..

So it's quite strange here. There are no large visible orders on the order book, but secretly there are many passive orders being filled (-2000 CVD can't be pushed down)

In this inexplicable nervous selling situation, without any signs of turning in spot CVD, despite the passive orders, we still don't plan to do much here for now..
Continuing to hold the remaining 20% of the short position to see how things develop next..

Until we enter the order demand zone and the color bands reappear...

The number of jobs in the United States in 2025 has been revised down by more than 1 million, the largest annual revision in decades.

Spot Sale Status

BTC seems to be forming a bullish pattern.

A closing price above $72,500 will confirm the breakout.

If it falls below $67,000, this bullish pattern will be invalidated.#btc

In the past 10 years, what was the BTC price on the first day of the Lunar New Year?

What was the increase of BTC in the 7 days after the Spring Festival?

2016: 371, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +7.61%
2017: 920, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +12.32%
2018: 10112, 7-day change after the Spring Festival -0.79%
2019: 3464, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +4.83%
2020: 8432, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +10.39%
2021: 47816, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +8.19%
2022: 38555, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +13.89%
2023: 22771, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +1.1%
2024: 47143, 7-day change after the Spring Festival +10.66%
2025: 101313, 7-day change after the Spring Festival -3.15%
2026: Guess what it is?

In the past 10 years, the average increase of $BTC in the 7 days after the Spring Festival was 6.51%, with positive returns in 8 out of 10 years, achieving a win rate of 80%.
Will this year be different? #btc

"Brothers, let's seize the Spring Festival market this time, and after the holiday, we won't have to go to the factory!"

"Brother, I only took three jobs this year because I listened to you last year."

The Coinbase premium index has been negative for nearly three consecutive months.

📉 Coinbase selling pressure continues to exist
An analyst from CryptoQuant stated that Coinbase's negative premium gap has reached its longest duration since November 2024, indicating that selling pressure from American traders continues to exist. #btc

The current trend of Bitcoin completely matches the market crash of 2022.

Are you prepared according to this chart?
Anyway, I have already entered a small short position.
Get ready for rolling positions #btc

Does this chart look like the cycle bottom for $BTC has already appeared?

I don't think so. #btc

In the big trend, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. This does not conflict with the current rebound market during the Spring Festival; the rebound still presents an opportunity to escape. On the monthly chart, this month is forming a long lower shadow bearish candle, and many people will judge that this will become a major bottom and lead to a big V recovery from here. This is absolutely impossible. Because the monthly chart is a major indicator, producing one bearish or bullish candle per month, and the MACD is still quite far from the zero line. It will take at least another 4-5 months for it to flatten out towards the zero line. Therefore, the time cycle is extended; 59800 is just the lowest point for this February, not the lowest point for the entire bear market cycle. #btc

Bitcoin struggles to break the $70,000 barrier, with the fear and greed index remaining in a state of 'extreme fear'