虾币币的比特世界

2025 has passed, and I would like to make a brief summary of the year's investments, sharing the experiences and lessons learned. If I were to describe the investment behavior of 2025 in one Chinese word, it would be 'Buddhist'; if I were to express it in English, it would be 'hold'. There were very few trades made throughout the year, and the projects I initially believed in are mostly still held with some minor adjustments. There were also breakthroughs, as I entered the stock market, involving US stocks, Japanese stocks, and A-shares, but the performance varied greatly, and I also experienced the pitfalls of 'insufficient understanding.' Let's first talk about cryptocurrency.
In the past two years, I have increasingly felt that the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a very different change, and this change cannot simply be explained in the same way as in the past with terms like 'bull market, bear market, cyclical rotation.' The old four-year cycle experience has been very effective in the past decade or so, to the extent that everyone subconsciously believed: as long as Bitcoin rises, money will inevitably flow into altcoins; it’s just a matter of time. However, in this round, you will find that things have not continued along this path. In 2024, Bitcoin surged, and many people naturally considered 2025 as the altcoin season, even expecting two rounds. But what actually happened was that the altcoin season did not appear, and instead turned into a continuous state of bleeding. Old altcoins are dropping one by one, falling deeply, with some prices even lower than the lowest point during the 2022 bear market; as for new altcoins, it goes without saying that not breaking even after going live is already considered a good performance. The era of tenfold or hundredfold gains right after launch is almost nowhere to be seen.

Yesterday, BNB first broke above $800, and BNB's total market capitalization surpassed $110 billion. The bull market predicted five years ago seems to have materialized today. On July 25, 2020, I first wrote about my long-term judgment on BNB in a public account, titled 'Long-term Judgment on BNB'; at that time, BNB's price was $18, with a total market capitalization of $2.7 billion. Subsequently, I wrote several articles supplementing the logic of a long-term view of a $100 billion market cap. In the 2021 bull market, BNB's total market capitalization exceeded $90 billion but did not reach $100 billion. This year, it has officially broken through. Looking back now, some of the logic has been validated, while some have been falsified, but overall, it can be considered a successful prediction. This article serves as a conclusion to the prediction made five years ago!

Without realizing it, 2026 has already begun.
Looking back five years ago, we were still endlessly debating one thing: Is Bitcoin really a tulip bubble? Today, even in the most conservative and traditional financial circles, hardly anyone dares to ignore its presence anymore. It's not because everyone suddenly 'understands' BTC, but because it has reached a position that cannot be ignored.
Recently, BTC has been trading above $92,000. To be honest, the price itself hasn't caused me much emotional reaction; rather, the market's state is more intriguing. After the CPI data release, emotions didn't swing dramatically—volatility was quickly absorbed, and the market appeared unusually restrained. More importantly, the once-ironclad 'four-year halving cycle' is quietly fading away. In its place, a new pricing logic—driven by ETFs, national strategies, and U.S. dollar liquidity—is taking shape.