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【What does the partial shutdown of the U.S. government mean for the financial markets?】
The U.S. government has officially entered a partial shutdown, which has limited short-term impact on the economy, but its effects on the financial markets are mainly reflected in expectations and sentiment.
The shutdown means an increase in uncertainty regarding fiscal and policy execution, delays in some economic data and regulatory actions, and a temporary decrease in market risk appetite. Historical experience shows that if the shutdown duration is controllable, the impact is mostly short-term; however, if prolonged, volatility significantly increases.
Against the backdrop of high interest rates and high debt, the shutdown is more easily interpreted as a signal of escalating political gamesmanship, prompting funds to shift towards safe-haven assets and increasing short-term volatility in global markets.
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Last night, many people probably couldn't sleep, right? How many people thought about drying their quilts on the rooftop overnight? They originally thought that the cryptocurrency market had large fluctuations and took their money to invest in precious metals, but as a result, they not only lost their investments but also faced additional losses.
Gold fell more than 11%, and silver plummeted by 31%, creating the highest intraday drop since 2008.
On the surface, the changes in the candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman were the direct trigger, causing the market's expectations for future monetary policy to suddenly shift. The US dollar strengthened, and real interest rates rose, directly impacting the financial attributes of precious metals. After all, the previous surge in precious metals was largely based on the logic of loose monetary policy, anti-inflation, and safe-haven assets. When this core logic is questioned, funds will naturally choose to withdraw. A deeper reason is that the market had accumulated too many bubbles in the early stages, with gold and silver experiencing massive gains in a short period, and a large number of profit-taking positions waiting to be realized. Once negative signals appear, it can trigger concentrated selling, creating a stampede effect. Additionally, with high leverage, price declines trigger forced liquidations, and algorithmic trading amplifies volatility at critical points, causing liquidity to evaporate instantly. Prices drop like kites with cut strings, with silver being more severely affected due to its smaller market size and larger volatility.
Every market fluctuation is an opportunity for growth. Respecting the market and controlling risks will always be the first principle of investing.
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