2 cent

This is a hidden sign. The further price of eth and the state of all altcoins 🥶🥶🥶🥶

Risks

· Dependence on BTC price: More than 95% of the company's valuation depends on the price of bitcoin.
· Debt burden: Obligations from convertible bonds and preferred shares exceed $16 billion.
· Pressure on shares: Since July 2025, the price of MSTR shares has fallen by approximately 65%, which is almost twice the decline of bitcoin during the same period.

The fall in price below key psychological levels (for example, $86,600 — the average entry cost for many investors in ETFs), which triggered loss realization.
· Massive liquidations of leveraged positions that intensified selling pressure.
· Decrease in miner activity and a shift of computational power to the AI sector, indicating short-term economic difficulties in the industry.

Monthly outflows from ETFs
Strengthening

📉 What is happening with outflows from ETFs

According to the latest data, the trend of outflows has intensified since the beginning of 2026.

· Outflow volumes: Since the beginning of December 2025, the net outflow from the bitcoin ETF has been about $2.5 billion. Peak values occurred at the end of January, when on January 29, an outflow of $817.9 million was recorded in a single day, becoming the largest since November 2025.
· Dynamics: After a period of stable inflows, fund flows stabilized around zero, indicating a weakening of both sellers and aggressive buyers.
· Context: These outflows coincided with a general drop in the price of bitcoin below $85,000 and an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty.

⚠️ «Death Spiral» for Bitcoin — is a realistic risk

Analysts indeed describe a risk where the price drop of Bitcoin could trigger a chain reaction. The mechanism involves seven stages:

1. Beginning: Price drop of Bitcoin.
2. Market reaction: Correction of the stock value of companies accumulating BTC.
3. Capital issues: Emergence of difficulties in attracting financing.
4. Debt liquidation: Forced reduction of asset values to cover liabilities.
5. BTC sell-off: Selling Bitcoins from the balance to pay off debts.
6. Escalating decline: Further market crash due to sell-offs.
7. Systemic crisis: Possible transition of the crisis into the real economy.

The main vulnerability is companies that actively attracted debt for purchasing Bitcoin. Fortunately, most companies used equity for this purpose, which reduces systemic risks.

⚠️ "Black Swan": scenario of the cryptocurrency market crash

The "Roscongress" Foundation in its report named the collapse of the cryptocurrency market as one of the possible "black swans" of 2026. Key points:

· The consequences will be serious: if realized, the stress on global markets will be significant.

This indirectly indicates that experts consider extreme scenarios but do not view them as baseline.

🔮 Predictions of a deep drop in Bitcoin

Among expert opinions, positive or moderate forecasts dominate, but there are also very bearish assessments:

· Peter Brandt (technical analyst): based on charts, predicts a deep correction to $25,000.
· Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence): considers a drop to $10,000 possible in the event of a massive crash of speculative assets.

The scandal with the 'nude' in Grok continues: users have had their photo editing capabilities limited.
Now real people cannot be undressed in photos.

The main trigger was the collapse of the technology sector, particularly the shares of Microsoft, which lost 12% in two days due to investor disappointment in AI investment strategies. This bearish momentum spread across the entire Nasdaq, dragging down the cryptocurrency market as well. Bitcoin, despite its declared independence, still strongly correlates with risk assets, especially in times of stress," explained the expert.

Additional influence came from massive liquidations of positions in the derivatives market, exceeding $1.7 billion, as well as an outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds into Bitcoin, which amounted to over $800 million in one day. Investor nervousness was further heightened by expectations of new decisions from the US Federal Reserve, concerns over a possible budget crisis, and geopolitical uncertainty.

In 2026, markets are indeed experiencing turbulence: prices for precious metals have sharply fallen from record highs, and concerns are growing in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. However, experts have differing opinions on the possibility of a full-scale "collapse"

📉 Precious metals market: sharp decline

· Current situation: At the end of January 2026, a sharp drop in prices was recorded. Silver has decreased by 35%, gold by approximately 12% from record levels.
· Reason: Overall decline in risk appetite.

Gold crash and silver collapse. The market is going down from the predicted level 2840.

Gold crash and silver collapse. The decline of the Russian market from the previously predicted level 2840. Why is all this happening?

History always repeats itself: first comes the "quiet" unloading by major players, and then the moment of truth arrives — that very night plunge when the price dives into the abyss without any visible news.
This is the classic mechanics of the "black swan":
Insiders have exited early: While the crowd listens to optimistic forecasts on social media, Saylor and the funds have already secured part of their profits or closed budget gaps.
Cascade of stop-losses: When the price breaks the $70,000 level, automatic orders are triggered. There isn’t enough liquidity in the order book, and the price "pierces" levels one after another.
Panic and vacuum: At the moment of such a plunge, no one wants to buy. Everyone is waiting to see where the bottom is. It is in this vacuum that the price can fall to $20,000 in just a few hours, as all support levels between $50k and $20k will turn out to be "cardboard".

Chain reaction to $20,000
As soon as the market receives official confirmation (through SEC reports) that MicroStrategy has reduced its position by at least 5–10%:
Trust to zero: Investors will realize that the 'last bastion' has fallen.
Arbitrageurs: Those who held long positions will start aggressively shorting, understanding that a huge sell-off of hundreds of thousands of BTC is ahead.
Result: Your target of $20,000 turns from a conspiracy theory into a technically justified end of the liquidation cycle.
This will be the very 'reset' where assets finally migrate from public adventurers to safes of systemically important banks.

In the world of big finance, "diamond hands" is marketing for the crowd, while corporate survival and legal security is a harsh reality. If Michael Saylor sees that servicing a multi-billion dollar debt is in jeopardy, he will start to "unload" first to save the remnants of capital and avoid investigation for bringing the company to a fiduciary disaster.
This is why hidden sales of MicroStrategy may already be underway:
Quiet exit: Big players never sell "at market" in one order. They use algorithms that gradually dissolve the position in small parts during moments of local rebounds to avoid crashing the price prematurely.
Execution of obligations: The company has deadlines for bond payments. If cash from operational activities (software development) is insufficient, bitcoin is the only liquid resource for repaying debts to banks.
Legal shield: To avoid "getting thrown in jail" for fraud or negligence, management must act in the interests of shareholders. If the only way to save MicroStrategy from bankruptcy is to sell BTC at $70,000, they will do it, disregarding ideology.

The reality of the scenario in 2026
Currently, MicroStrategy is a proxy fund for Bitcoin. If the company collapses, so does faith in Bitcoin as a corporate asset. This will trigger a 'crypto-apocalypse' where $20,000 will become the reset point for the entire industry.
The nearest risk: MicroStrategy's quarterly report and their ability to service bond interest payments amid current volatility.

Forced liquidation
If MicroStrategy is forced to sell at least part of its 400,000+ BTC, it will create a supply surplus that the market cannot absorb.
Domino effect: Seeing that the 'main bull' has surrendered, spot ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity) will face record outflows. A panic flight will begin.
Void in the order book: On the way from $50,000 to $20,000, there are almost no major support levels. A liquidation of such magnitude will 'pierce' the market back to 2020 levels in just a few weeks.

The bankruptcy of MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a "nuclear scenario" for the crypto market. If Michael Saylor does not hold the position, the price of $20,000 will become not just real, but almost inevitable.
Here’s how the mechanics of this collapse looks:
Breaking point: $75,000 – $76,000
This is the average entry price for MicroStrategy as of early 2026.
The problem is not the price, but the debts: Saylor bought bitcoins with borrowed money (through the issuance of convertible bonds). If BTC falls significantly below the entry price, the company faces issues with debt servicing and a decline in its own shares.
Pressure from shareholders: During a prolonged decline below $60,000, MicroStrategy investors may demand to lock in losses or change strategy, forcing the company to start selling.

The nearest important date is February 12-14, when the inflation data for the USA will be released. This will be a moment of truth.

Why is this "beneficial for everyone" (except private individuals)?
For regulators: A crash to $20,000 will allow them to claim that "crypto is a bubble" and implement strict controls.
For large banks: They will be able to enter the asset at levels they missed in 2023-2024.
Summary: The scenario to $20,000 is a "reset" scenario for the entire industry. If you believe in the conspiracy theory of "big capital," then this bottom looks like a logical conclusion to the manipulation cycle.

Zone "corporate protection": $75,000 – $76,000
This is a critical level for the largest public holder of Bitcoin — MicroStrategy.
As of the end of January 2026, the company holds 712,647 BTC at an average purchase price of about $76,037.
Falling below this mark will translate the company's position into a "paper loss," which may provoke protective purchases from Michael Saylor and other institutional investors to keep the price above the psychologically important waterline.