奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Standard Chartered Bank: Global economy may shift from fiscal stimulus to a stable transition by 2026

Standard Chartered Bank's 2026 Global Outlook report forecasts that global economic growth in 2026 will remain broadly flat compared to 2025, maintaining a level of 3.4%, presenting an overall 'calm' macroeconomic posture. However, beneath this general stability lie key shifts in growth engines, as well as underlying 'instability' stemming from multiple uncertainties.

The report indicates that global economic growth in 2026 is expected to primarily rely on expansionary fiscal policies and domestic demand driven by corporate investments—particularly those related to artificial intelligence—rather than the monetary policy support and early export positioning that characterized 2025. This implies profound shifts in policy focus and growth models across countries.

Under this evolving landscape, Standard Chartered Bank analyzes that the two major global economies in 2026 will see adjusted growth expectations: the United States' growth forecast has been upgraded from 1.7% to 2.3%, primarily driven by a recovering labor market, the implementation of corporate tax cuts, and strong investment demand fueled by the competition in artificial intelligence applications;

China's economic growth forecast has been raised from 4.3% to 4.6%, mainly due to the gradual easing of pessimistic expectations regarding Sino-U.S. trade tensions, as well as the continued deepening of export market diversification.

In contrast, the eurozone's growth outlook remains weak, with only a minor adjustment from 1.0% to 1.1%, primarily constrained by ongoing trade pressures and internal economic imbalances;

Meanwhile, other export-oriented economies in Asia may become among the few regions experiencing slower growth after the 'early export'红利 fades.

Therefore, the report summarizes the overall characteristics of the global economy in 2026 as 'calm but uneasy,' as escalating geopolitical conflicts, trade policy uncertainties, and major elections in multiple countries collectively create significant 'fat tail risks,' posing hidden threats to economic stability;

However, if artificial intelligence achieves unexpected productivity gains, it could also emerge as an unexpected upward driver for global economic growth.

In summary, the core challenge for the global economy in 2026 lies in successfully transitioning from weakening old growth drivers to a new model driven by fiscal policy, domestic investment, and new technologies, thereby achieving a smooth transition.

#全球经济

South Korea passed two special bills on Security Token Offerings (STO), establishing a legal framework for compliant issuance and trading of digital securities

On January 15, after approximately three years of legislative preparation, the South Korean National Assembly formally passed two key amendments: the amended Securities and Capital Markets Act and the Electronic Securities Act. This move marks South Korea's establishment of clear compliance guidelines and regulatory basis for Security Token Offerings (STO).

Rep. Kim Sang-hoon from the People Power Party explained that the core contents of these amendments include allowing token securities to circulate in over-the-counter markets and restructuring the issuance and circulation system for token securities.

Voting results showed that the amendment to the Securities and Capital Markets Act passed with 210 votes in favor and 1 abstention; the amendment to the Electronic Securities Act passed with 212 votes in favor and 2 abstentions. Currently, both bills only require review by the State Council and promulgation procedures before they can take effect officially.

This legislative process can be traced back to February 2023, when the Financial Services Commission first announced STO guidelines. After being stalled in the previous National Assembly, the bills were revived and ultimately approved in the current legislative session.

The core content of the bill is to introduce the legal concept of "distributed ledger," allowing eligible issuers to directly issue token securities and manage them electronically through registration, recording, and other digital methods;

Meanwhile, the bill also allows the distribution of token securities in over-the-counter markets and formally includes non-traditional securities such as investment contracts within the regulatory scope of the Securities and Capital Markets Act.

In terms of implementation timing, both bills adopt a phased approach. Most provisions of the Securities and Capital Markets Act will take effect immediately upon publication;

However, guidance related to investment advice will take effect after six months, and provisions regarding over-the-counter trading will require one year to take effect; the amendments to the Electronic Securities Act will only come into effect one year after promulgation.

Overall, the core significance of these two bills lies in bringing blockchain finance from the "gray zone" into a legal and regulated framework, aiming to establish clear rule boundaries for financial innovation and promote industry development within a secure framework.

#韩国 #STO

Bitcoin open interest drops sharply; deleveraging may pave the way for a bull market rebound

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin derivatives open interest has declined by 31% from last October's peak, a deleveraging process that not only reduces market risk and the likelihood of cascading liquidations but also signals a positive shift toward healthier market structure.

Historically, deleveraging often marks a significant market bottom, effectively resetting high-leverage behavior and laying a stronger foundation for a potential bull market recovery.

Data shows that the speculative frenzy in the crypto derivatives market in 2025 pushed Bitcoin open interest (OI) to a historical high of over $15 billion on October 6, nearly three times the previous bull market peak of $5.7 billion on Binance in November 2021.

According to CoinGlass data, the total Bitcoin open interest across all exchanges and derivatives markets currently stands at approximately $66 billion, a drop of about 28% from the peak of $92 billion in early October last year, consistent with CryptoQuant's findings.

Although deleveraging benefits the crypto market, analysts also warn that if Bitcoin prices continue to fall and enter a full bear market, open interest could shrink further, triggering deeper deleveraging and prolonging the market adjustment period.

Moreover, Bitcoin spot prices have risen nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, and with open interest declining, this typically indicates that short-side leveraged positions are being squeezed and unwound. This suggests that the current price rally is primarily driven by spot buying rather than high-risk leverage, making the rally potentially more sustainable.

According to Deribit market data, the notional value of call options with a strike price of $100,000 has reached $2.2 billion, reflecting some traders' bullish expectations. However, most analysts believe the current trading structure remains a passive response to price volatility rather than active positioning based on a long-term bullish consensus.

In summary, the market's deleveraging has laid a more solid foundation for a potential bull market recovery, but it is still premature to declare a full-blown bull market has begun. Future price movements will depend on whether sustained inflows of spot capital can be confirmed and whether the derivatives market can shift from its current cautious stance to a more actively bullish positioning.

#比特币

US spot BTC and ETH ETFs continue net inflows, cumulative inflows exceed $1 billion on Wednesday

January 15 report, according to SoSovalue data, US spot BTC ETFs recorded nearly $844 million in net inflows yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net inflows. No BTC ETF experienced net outflows yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with $648 million (approximately 6,650 BTC) in net inflows yesterday, bringing its total cumulative net inflows to $63.11 billion;

Next, Fidelity's FBTC recorded $125 million (approximately 1,290 BTC) in net inflows yesterday, with total cumulative net inflows reaching $12.31 billion;

Ark & 21Shares ARKB, Grayscale GBTC, and Bitwise BITB recorded single-day net inflows of $27.04 million (277.21 BTC), $15.25 million (156.38 BTC), and $10.6 million (108.67 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, VanEck HODL, Franklin EZBC, and Valkyrie BRR recorded single-day net inflows of $8.28 million (84.84 BTC), $5.64 million (57.84 BTC), and $3.03 million (31.05 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $128.04 billion, representing 6.56% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $58.12 billion.

On the same day, US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $175 million in net inflows, also marking three consecutive days of net inflows. No ETH ETF experienced net outflows yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA led with $81.6 million (approximately 24,180 ETH) in net inflows yesterday, bringing its total cumulative net inflows to $12.77 billion;

Next, Grayscale's ETH and ETHE recorded single-day net inflows of $43.47 million (approximately 12,880 ETH) and $32.35 million (approximately 9,590 ETH), respectively;

Meanwhile, Bitwise ETHW, Fidelity's FETH, and VanEck ETHV recorded single-day net inflows of $7.97 million (approximately 2,360 ETH), $5.89 million (approximately 1,750 ETH), and $3.7 million (approximately 1,100 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $20.84 billion, representing 5.10% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $12.74 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

JPMorgan Report: Institutional Funds Will Drive Continued Growth in the Crypto Market by 2026

According to JPMorgan's latest analysis report, the cryptocurrency market is expected to see another wave of capital inflow by 2026, with the driving force shifting from retail investors to a broader range of institutional investors.

The report notes that the entire cryptocurrency market attracted nearly $130 billion in record-breaking capital inflows in 2025, representing an increase of about one-third compared to 2024.

The analysis attributes this growth primarily to capital inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs (likely driven by retail investors) and significant增持 by Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) corporations, two major forces driving the trend.

Notably, purchases by DAT companies other than Strategy surged from $8 billion in 2024 to approximately $45 billion in 2025, becoming the largest source of incremental capital last year. However, this corporate buying surge has significantly slowed since October of last year.

Nevertheless, analysts believe that as institutional investors become the new dominant force in the market, capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market are expected to increase further in 2026. This is mainly due to the potential passage of regulatory frameworks such as the U.S. Clarity Act, as well as a new wave of investment and M&A activities in cryptocurrency infrastructure, which will pave the way for traditional financial institutions to enter the market.

Analysts also observed that while total venture capital investment in cryptocurrencies saw a slight increase in 2025, the number of transactions declined and became more concentrated in later-stage projects, with some venture capital being diverted to DAT companies.

However, with current market sentiment and key indicators such as ETF fund flows showing preliminary signs of stabilization, it suggests that the retail and institutional sell-off trends in Q4 2025 may have already ended.

In summary, after a period of explosive growth driven by retail sentiment and specific corporate financial strategies, the cryptocurrency market is gradually transitioning into a new phase characterized by full institutional participation, clear regulatory support, and more sustainable development.

#JPMorgan

Payment giant Visa unveils its stablecoin strategy, with the core approach being integration into the global payment network rather than replacement

Recently, Cuy Sheffield, Visa's head of cryptocurrency business, stated that the company is actively integrating stablecoins into its global payment network and views this as a key strategy to consolidate its market leadership.

He admitted that although the total circulating supply of stablecoins (such as USDT, which has exceeded $187 billion) has surged, their direct acceptance by mainstream merchants remains very limited.

Therefore, stablecoin service providers must rely on extensive payment networks to achieve user adoption; Visa’s existing channels perfectly meet this need, making it a central entry point.

Currently, Visa's stablecoin settlement business is showing strong growth, with an annualized processing volume reaching $4.5 billion and rising significantly month by month.

The primary demand for this service comes from payment card issuers linked to stablecoins, indicating that stablecoins in consumer payment applications still heavily depend on traditional card-based payment infrastructure as a connecting bridge.

Moreover, with traditional financial giants like Goldman Sachs and UBS increasingly entering the space with their own stablecoins, Sheffield's confidence in the future of euro-backed stablecoins has been further strengthened. He pointed out that stablecoins backed by multiple fiat currencies will collectively drive the sector toward maturity.

In summary, Visa's strategic positioning clearly demonstrates that this payment giant is focused on playing an irreplaceable role as a bridge and enabler between traditional card networks and emerging blockchain settlement layers, aiming to maintain control over the core hub of global payment flows in the digital currency era.

#Visa #稳定币

Due to the shift in support from industry giants, the Senate Banking Committee's market structure bill revision meeting has been urgently canceled.

According to a post by Eleanor Terrett on X, the originally scheduled meeting for tomorrow (local time) has been abruptly canceled.

Analysis suggests the immediate cause is that Bloomberg reported that Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase—the primary industry supporter of the bill—announced today that he is withdrawing support for the current draft version.

The report states that Armstrong believes the existing draft contains 'too many problems,' including potentially effectively banning tokenized stocks, overly restricting the development of decentralized finance (DeFi), and undermining the authority of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Armstrong also stated, 'I'd rather have no bill than a bad one,' and believes the current version is worse than the current regulatory status quo.

Armstrong's shift in position has been decisive, as Coinbase has been the main industry force driving this legislation, and its withdrawal has removed crucial industry consensus and lobbying support.

The cancellation of this meeting has stalled the key legislative process to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market. It remains unclear whether a new meeting date has been set.

In summary, this event highlights deep divisions between regulators and major industry players over core provisions, and also indicates that there is still no consensus within the industry on what constitutes good regulation.

Whether the legislative process will be significantly delayed or restarted with a completely revised new draft remains uncertain.

#市场结构法案 #加密立法

After losing on liquidating altcoins, 'Strategy Counterparty' reopens long positions in major coins

According to the latest monitoring data from Hyperbot, after 'Strategy Counterparty' liquidated its FARTCOIN position, losing $85,000, and closed its PUMP long position, losing $138,000, this major fund has reopened long positions this morning.

Data shows that as of now, its holdings include 20x leverage long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with a total value of $464 million across these three assets.

Specifically, its current BTC position is valued at $245.92 million; ETH position at $150.06 million; SOL at $6.9667 million;

In summary, these series of actions indicate that after previous short positions, the fund's strategy has shifted from bearish to bullish on the market in the short term. This move not only reflects its keen insight into short-term market fluctuations but could also become a significant factor amplifying market volatility.

#合约交易 #Strategy对手盘

The influence of the cryptocurrency options market is weakening, and spot market price volatility may become more stable

According to a report by Matrixport's independent analyst Markus Thielen, the dominance of the options market in driving cryptocurrency prices is declining, suggesting that spot market prices could become more stable in the short term rather than experiencing sharp fluctuations.

Data shows that the open interest notional values in the BTC and ETH options markets have significantly declined from their peaks in October 2025 and August 2025 (approximately $52 billion and $15 billion, respectively) to around $28 billion and $5 billion currently.

This significant shift also reflects changes in market liquidity. In the short term, the pace of capital inflows has slowed, new positions are being established with greater caution and selectivity, and the market is undergoing a continuous deleveraging process.

Specifically, although some traders continue to buy Bitcoin call options to express optimism about the future; the previously common strategy in the Ethereum market—long futures positions combined with put option hedges—is being gradually unwound, indicating that the market is proactively reducing risk and deleveraging.

In summary, the driving force of options on spot price volatility has diminished, suggesting that the market may be transitioning from the past two years' high-leverage, derivatives-driven trading model to a new phase driven more by fundamental factors such as spot fund flows and macro narratives.

This structural shift implies that the market may move away from the sharp price swings caused by high-leverage derivatives, leading to more subdued short-term volatility. Such a more stable market environment is also a necessary foundation for forming healthier, more sustainable long-term trends.

#加密期权

Traders' expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2026 are rapidly cooling down

The trend in options market trading has revealed a significant shift in traders' expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy in 2026, primarily driven by the swift decline in public expectations for rate cuts.

This shift began after last Friday's U.S. employment data release, when the unexpectedly low unemployment rate nearly erased market bets on a rate cut this month.

According to data from the CME Fed Watch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged for at least its first three meetings this year has significantly increased. Moreover, as each meeting approaches, the likelihood of maintaining unchanged rates continues to rise.

Meanwhile, current new options positions are mainly concentrated in contracts for January and March, but the primary purpose of these positions is not to bet on rate cuts, but rather to hedge against the potential risk of prolonged delays in Fed rate cuts.

More notably, some traders have started positioning in longer-dated options contracts, aiming to profit from a scenario where the Fed maintains rates unchanged throughout the year.

These trading movements collectively indicate that risk pricing in the interest rate market is being recalibrated, and the consensus among traders is now forming around a significantly delayed policy shift.

#期权市场 #利率预期

The "Strategy Opponent" has accumulated short positions worth approximately $73.95 million in BTC, ETH, and SOL futures contracts.

According to the latest monitoring data from Hyperbot, a relatively active "Strategy Opponent" in the futures market, after closing long positions on January 14 and realizing profits of $15.33 million, has now largely shifted to a bearish strategy.

Specifically, the account currently holds 20x leverage short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with the total value of these short positions reaching approximately $73.95 million.

In recent performance, the account has been highly active and profitable. Its total P&L over the past day is about $14.37 million, while its cumulative profits over the past week have reached $24.93 million.

In summary, the large-scale shift from long to short by the "Strategy Opponent" clearly indicates a bearish outlook on short-term market trends. Moreover, this nearly $74 million high-leverage short position itself may further intensify selling pressure and price volatility in the market.

#合约交易 #Strategy对手盘

No net outflows from US BTC and ETH spot ETFs throughout the day, with cumulative inflows reaching nearly $884 million on Tuesday

January 14 report: According to SoSovalue data, US BTC spot ETFs recorded nearly $754 million in net inflows yesterday, marking two consecutive days of total net inflows. Moreover, none of the BTC ETFs experienced net outflows yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC led with nearly $351 million (approximately 3,720 BTC), and FBTC has now accumulated $12.19 billion in net inflows;

Next were Bitwise BITB, BlackRock's IBIT, and Ark&21Shares ARKB, recording single-day net inflows of $159 million (approximately 1,690 BTC), $126 million (approximately 1,340 BTC), and $84.88 million (899.70 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Grayscale BTC, VanEck HODL, and WisdomTree BTCW recorded net inflows of $18.8 million (199.33 BTC), $10 million (106.05 BTC), and $2.99 million (31.74 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $123 billion, accounting for 6.52% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $57.27 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded nearly $130 million in net inflows, marking two consecutive days of total net inflows. Additionally, none of the ETH ETFs experienced net outflows yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA led with $53.31 million (approximately 16,620 ETH), and ETHA has now accumulated $12.69 billion in net inflows;

Next were Grayscale's ETH and ETHE, recording single-day net inflows of $35.42 million (approximately 11,050 ETH) and $3.93 million (approximately 1,230 ETH), respectively;

Bitwise ETHW and Fidelity's FETH recorded single-day net inflows of $22.96 million (approximately 7,160 ETH) and $14.38 million (approximately 4,480 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $19.62 billion, accounting for 5.07% of Ethereum's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $12.55 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

South Korea's Gen Z Drug Kingpin Uses Bitcoin for Money Laundering and Drug Trafficking, Sentenced to 20 Years and Fined $4.2 Million

Recently, the leader of a Gen Z drug trafficking gang that used Bitcoin for money laundering and operated a drug distribution network worth $4 million was sentenced to 20 years in prison and fined $4.2 million by the Ulsan District Court in South Korea. Three of his accomplices were sentenced to prison terms ranging from 30 months to 3 years for their involvement in drug trafficking and money laundering.

According to local reports, the unnamed gang leader began selling drugs online in March 2020. He recruited associates to set up multiple Telegram channels for drug sales, offering various illicit drugs such as synthetic marijuana, marijuana, LSD, and methamphetamine smuggled from Vietnam.

The gang operated using a 'dead drop' trading model, hiding drugs in public places, contacting buyers via Telegram, and conducting transactions and settlements using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Prosecutors stated that between March 2022 and May 2023, the gang completed nearly 12,000 drug deliveries, with over 7,000 kilograms of methamphetamine tablets alone delivered. The drug kingpin also used cryptocurrencies for money laundering and paid distributors a 10% commission for each completed order.

The presiding judge stated in the verdict that this type of drug trafficking model, combining encryption technology with international logistics, greatly increases law enforcement challenges and is rapidly spreading, constituting a highly antisocial crime that must be severely punished.

The judge also noted that the drug kingpin's trafficking model has been emulated by other criminals, leading to a surge in new drug users and drug offenders, severely disrupting social order.

The report also highlighted that Korean-language Telegram channels have become 'drug supermarkets' for young people in the country, with many users paying for drugs using cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, numerous street slang advertisements openly promoting nationwide delivery services for methamphetamine, ecstasy, and synthetic marijuana still appear on platforms like X and public Telegram channels.

In summary, these phenomena indicate that despite the judiciary's clear determination to impose strict penalties, completely eradicating this hidden criminal network that combines encrypted communication, cryptocurrencies, and modern logistics remains a serious law enforcement challenge for the country.

#比特币洗钱

JPMorgan CFO Warns: Interest-Bearing Stablecoins May Threaten Regulated Banking Systems

Recently, JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum expressed clear concerns about the rapid development of yield-generating stablecoins during the company's latest earnings conference call.

He pointed out that these stablecoins, which mimic bank deposits and pay interest, while resembling traditional bank deposits in design, do not operate within the conventional banking regulatory framework.

Barnum believes that although this system exhibits banking characteristics, it lacks prudent regulatory safeguards such as deposit insurance, capital adequacy requirements, and ongoing regulatory oversight—making it 'dangerous and undesirable'.

The advantage of yield-generating stablecoins lies in their ability to directly threaten banks' deposit base and profit models by offering faster, cheaper payment and settlement services, along with potentially much higher returns than traditional bank deposits.

JPMorgan's warning reflects deep concerns from traditional banking about the impact on their business models. As a result, industry groups represented by the American Bankers Association have begun lobbying to classify yield-generating stablecoins as a significant threat.

According to the latest draft legislation, the Clarity Act, digital asset service providers would be prohibited from paying interest or returns to users 'solely because they hold stablecoins,' indicating lawmakers' intent to prevent stablecoins from functioning as unregulated bank deposits and thus maintain financial system stability.

However, the draft is not an outright ban—it also permits incentive mechanisms related to blockchain network functions, such as liquidity provision, governance participation, and staking rewards, demonstrating lawmakers' effort to strike a balance between curbing financial system risks and not hindering blockchain technology applications.

Overall, traditional financial institutions represented by JPMorgan are attempting to bring this innovation under or restrict it within existing regulatory frameworks through lobbying. The final legislative outcome in Congress will largely shape the future development of stablecoins and their role within the broader financial system.

#稳定币 #计息稳定币

Despite Bitcoin's price breaking above $95,000, the derivatives market shows no structural bullish signals

According to the latest analysis from Greeks.live, Bitcoin successfully broke through the key resistance level of $95,000, ending its consolidation period of nearly two months;

Meanwhile, Ethereum's gains, although significant, remain relatively lagging, still confined within the 3,400 USD range of consolidation.

Data shows that today's large transactions in Bitcoin reached $1.8 billion, accounting for over 40% of its total trading volume, indicating concentrated institutional or large investor bets and driving forces behind its price surge.

In contrast, Ethereum's large transactions amounted to only $136 million, representing about 20%, suggesting market enthusiasm is clearly concentrated on Bitcoin.

However, despite the sharp rise in spot prices, implied volatility (IV) for major expiration periods did not show a significant rebound, and overall futures trading volume also did not increase substantially.

This indicates that the current market structure appears more like a 'reactive response' to the sudden price surge, rather than a systematic accumulation based on long-term bullish expectations.

Therefore, derivatives data has not yet shown a shift toward a 'structural bullish' market sentiment, suggesting that most investors' long-term outlook may still not have fully turned bullish.

In summary, while this breakout was led by Bitcoin in the spot market and attracted substantial attention and capital, the calm reaction in the derivatives market suggests that market confidence may still be in the early stages of recovery.

Whether the subsequent trend can be confirmed as a sustained bull market remains to be seen, depending on the evolution of derivatives market positioning, volatility levels, and whether mainstream assets like Ethereum can follow through with a breakout to ignite a broader market sentiment.

#市场信号

Hearing on the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee's Cryptocurrency Bill Scheduled for January 27

According to CoinDesk, following the announcement by the Senate Banking Committee of its version of the bill's review meeting this Thursday, the Senate Agriculture Committee has also set a new schedule.

The committee plans to officially release its lead-drafted cryptocurrency market structure bill on January 21 and hold a crucial review hearing on January 27.

The holding of this hearing marks the beginning of the substantive 'amendment' phase in the legislative process, a critical step for the bill's advancement.

It is expected that senators will debate and vote on amendments during the hearing to determine whether the entire bill will be submitted to the full Senate for final consideration.

However, the final formulation of the bill still faces several core controversies. According to informed sources, neither the current versions drafted by the Agriculture Committee nor the Banking Committee include two key provisions that have drawn bipartisan attention:

First, the ethical standards clause concerning President Trump and his family's ties to cryptocurrency businesses; second, the requirement that regulatory agencies such as the SEC and CFTC must have bipartisan leadership with sufficient voting members to effectively make rules.

Due to the absence of these controversial provisions, the current draft of the bill is considered unlikely to gain sufficient bipartisan support, adding uncertainty to the subsequent legislative process.

In summary, the legislative work on the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework is entering a phase of coordination and compromise between the two committee versions.

How consensus is reached on these key controversial provisions in the future will directly determine whether this series of bills aimed at providing 'clarity and certainty' to the market will ultimately pass.

#CryptocurrencyBill

US 'CLARITY Act' Latest Update: XRP, SOL, and Other Tokens May Gain Asset Status Equivalent to BTC, ETH

According to a post from Cointelegraph today, the US Digital Asset Market Transparency Act (commonly known as the 'CLARITY Act') may classify tokens such as XRP, SOL, LTC, HBAR, DOGE, and LINK as having the same asset status as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

This change would mean that if these digital assets become underlying assets of exchange-traded products before January 1, 2026, they would fall under the regulatory framework and applicable rules for crypto assets (rather than securities).

Analysts believe this legislative move aims to expand the regulatory scope of digital assets, thereby enhancing their legitimacy and market recognition; further solidifying their position within the financial system and improving market transparency and stability.

However, this change could also spark controversy and challenges. For example, some members of the cryptocurrency community are concerned that this might restrict innovation and development of new digital assets on exchanges.

Moreover, ensuring that these approved digital assets truly meet regulatory requirements, and addressing potential regulatory loopholes that may arise in the future, are key issues that must be considered and resolved.

Currently, the bill is still in the legislative process, and its specific provisions and final effective date remain to be determined by Congress. If passed and implemented, it would significantly increase the appeal of these assets to traditional financial institutions and may reshape the competitive landscape and innovation pathways across the entire cryptocurrency industry.

In summary, the passage of the US Digital Asset Market Transparency Act would not only expand regulatory coverage and enhance market transparency and stability, but could also trigger a series of controversies and challenges.

In the future, ensuring digital assets comply with regulatory requirements and addressing potential regulatory gaps will be crucial topics for market development.

#CLARITY法案

The first quarter of 2026 may be a window of opportunity for risk-seeking investors

According to VanEck's latest outlook report, as clarity increases in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, the first quarter of 2026 could see a market environment favorable to risk-seeking investors.

This forecast is primarily based on the declining U.S. fiscal deficit as a share of GDP and the increasingly clear direction of monetary policy, which helps stabilize long-term interest rates, reduce market risks, and create a clearer macro environment for risk assets.

Although the overall market outlook is optimistic, Bitcoin's short-term prospects remain complex. According to VanEck's report, Bitcoin's inherent four-year cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term market signals more difficult to interpret.

Since the large-scale deleveraging in October last year, while market bubbles have been partially cleared, Bitcoin's recent price movements have decoupled from traditional assets such as U.S. stocks and gold, indicating that investors should remain vigilant over the next 3 to 6 months.

However, the general market consensus is that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, fiscal stimulus, a loose monetary environment, and potential positive regulatory adjustments will collectively create a risk-friendly macro environment, benefiting the market in the first half of the year.

Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and the overall optimistic sentiment toward risk assets provide momentum for cryptocurrencies and reinforce their status as risk assets.

Technical analysis also supports a cautiously optimistic view. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's current price is hovering around a key support zone, indicating that upward momentum is building in the market. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the critical resistance level of $92,000, it could rebound into the six-figure range in the short term.

In summary, the current market is in a macro environment clearly favorable to risk assets. After the significant correction since the end of last year, Bitcoin is now in a phase of bubble deflation and indicator recovery.

While the long-term outlook remains optimistic, Bitcoin's short-term price movement will depend on its ability to leverage the prevailing macro risk appetite to break through key technical resistance levels, thereby aligning its upward momentum with that of traditional markets.

#BTC #VanEck

US BTC and ETH Spot ETFs Recorded Net Inflows of $122 Million on Monday

January 13 News: According to SoSovalue data, US BTC Spot ETFs saw total net inflows of nearly $117 million yesterday, marking the first day of net inflows this week.

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC recorded single-day net inflows of nearly $112 million (approximately 1,220 BTC) and $64.25 million (701.35 BTC), respectively.

Next, VanEck HODL and Grayscale's BTC recorded single-day net inflows of $6.48 million (70.69 BTC) and $4.85 million (52.98 BTC), respectively.

However, BlackRock's IBIT recorded a single-day net inflow of $70.66 million (771.32 BTC), becoming the only BTC ETF with net outflows yesterday.

As of now, the total asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $118.65 billion, representing 6.49% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $56.52 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded total net inflows of $5.04 million, marking the first day of net inflows this week.

Among them, Grayscale's ETHE and ETH recorded the highest single-day net inflows of $50.67 million (approximately 16,300 ETH) and $29.28 million (approximately 9,420 ETH), respectively.

Next, 21Shares TETH recorded a single-day net inflow of $4.97 million (1,600 ETH).

However, BlackRock's ETHA recorded net outflows of $79.88 million (approximately 25,690 ETH), becoming the only ETH ETF with net outflows yesterday.

As of now, the total asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $18.88 billion, representing 5.04% of Ethereum's total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $12.44 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF