Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster

Throughout the ongoing earnings cycle, we are witnessing a scenario where investors are penalizing companies across the board. This negative sentiment is impacting stocks regardless of whether they report an earnings miss or manage to beat expectations.

For January, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to -6. This result fell short of the -5 forecast but exceeded the prior recording of -7. In specific categories, new orders and shipments remained in contraction, though the figures were not as weak as those from December. Conversely, prices paid hit their highest mark since September, and employment conditions deteriorated.

Data from @Conferenceboard reveals that the Consumer Confidence Index for January has dropped considerably to 84.5. This is the lowest point recorded since 2014 and sits well below the estimated 91.0. For comparison, the prior figure stood at 94.2 after being revised up from 89.1. We see this downward trend reflected in the sub-indices as well. The present situation score fell to 113.7 compared to the previous 123.6, while expectations also declined, hitting 65.1 against the prior 74.6.

The proportion of stocks within each sector that are trading at new peak prices across different timeframes

The November data for the S&P Cotality CS 20-City Home Price Index shows a month-over-month increase of +0.47%. This performance surpassed both the estimated +0.22% and the prior reading of +0.36% (blue). regarding the annual figures, the year-over-year change rose to +1.39% from the previous +1.32% (orange).

While the S&P 500 Technology sector managed to post a gain yesterday, it has not yet escaped negative territory for the year. Currently, it stands as one of just two U.S. large cap sectors in the red. This struggle is quite different from the impressive strength seen in international markets such as the Netherlands, Spain, and Singapore. In those regions, the tech sector is outpacing the parent indices by 16%, 9%, and 9%, respectively. However, this global success is not consistent across the board. The sector is dealing with double-digit underperformance in other nations, specifically Canada, Denmark, Hungary, and Chile. @SPDJIndices

According to @AdpResearch, for the four-weeks ending Jan. 3, private payrolls added a weekly average of 7,750k jobs.

We are pleased to announce that the new report covering the @Conferenceboard LEI release is now available. Refer to the table of highlights presented below and find the full document at https://www.schwab.com/resource/scfr-lei

The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 have seen their market-cap weight drop beneath 40%. @SoberLook

According to @SoberLook, the likelihood of another government shutdown occurring by January 31 has risen significantly. Activity on the @Polymarket betting platform indicates that the chance of this happening has surged.

Data provided by @Gallup reveals interesting shifts in how artificial intelligence is being adopted across the workforce. During 4Q25, the percentage of employees incorporating AI into their daily routines climbed to 12%, an increase from the 10% seen in the previous quarter. When looking at overall adoption, the total number of AI users has slowly advanced to 46%. Conversely, there remains a large segment of the population that has yet to embrace this technology, as 49% of workers stated they have never used AI in their professional roles.

Here is a breakdown of performance across sectors and indexes highlighting the results from yesterday in addition to MTD and YTD figures.

The index tables and Mag7 chart/table have been updated with performance data through yesterday's close.

We have refreshed the MA breadth charts to include all data through the end of the trading session yesterday.

When calculated using a 3m moving average, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed to -0.23 during November. However, this figure signifies that the index has now experienced contraction for seven months in a row.

Despite the uneven trends observed over the last couple of years, the outlook regarding capital expenditures is becoming more positive. Firms participating in the Dallas Fed survey report that their capex forecasts have continued to rise throughout the past few months.

November saw a moderation in the year-over-year figures for core capital goods orders (blue) and shipments (orange), yet the broader uptrends stay largely preserved.

Market participants moved substantial capital out of United States large-cap holdings throughout the previous week. This trend coincided with a pivot toward international equities. Furthermore, the data indicates that both the bond market and precious metals attracted solid inflows during the same timeframe. @DataArbor

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index recorded a rise to 51.6 for January when adjusted according to ISM methodology.

For January, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to -1.2, noticeably topping the -8.5 estimate. This marks a recovery from the prior reading of -11.3, which was a downward revision from -10.9. Underlying data shows that shipments, employment, new orders, and production all improved, successfully moving into expansion. At the same time, we saw figures for prices paid and prices received both move higher.