Icy maicy

🔥🔥Guys this post is important 🔥🔥
I have few followers so probably not many will read this. And I don't want to scare you, but I believe that the 126k of $BTC was the top of this bull cycle. From now on, the bear market is coming..

I'm not saying this randomly, but essentially for two reasons: on the 1-week time frame for BTC, there is a bearish divergence, a strong and important signal that coincides with the market tops.
It would only be invalidated if we surpass 126k again (even though in 2021 there were two tops before the drop: 69k and 61k)..

The other thing that makes me think is the timing of this important bearish divergence.. Generally, the bear market starts 1.5 years after the BTC halving (when the rewards for BTC miners are halved), with it having occurred in April 2024, the 1.5-year mark is now up..

Other indicators are in neutral phase, but these two are enough for me..

I say it here,
🔥🔥WE ARE AT THE MARKET TOP🔥🔥

For me, it's time to exit the market with long-term positions.. I expect a deep correction for all of 2026 with the market bottom between 40k and 60k for BTC, which should arrive in Q4 of 2026..

I'm not telling you to run away from the market, or to open short positions, we will continue to work, opportunities never lack and day trading can always be done.. But I warn you, not everything will rise randomly anymore, many useless coins do not survive the bear market, empty projects slowly die, and prices never recover, with drops of minus 90%..

This is about the macro market, the big cycle.. and I am effectively calling the TOP of this cycle.. I'm not asking you to trust me

In fact, do your own research, but I am telling you to be careful and that probably now is not the right time for long-term investments, the best time to do DCA and accumulate coins will be in the final months of 2026 (Q4)..

Time will tell if I was right
Good work
If you need, Icy is always here 😎

Told you.. GM

Just buy now.. easy

$XRP waiting for a +6% that will arrive soon, what project do you recommend I study?
do you have any nice coin to recommend with a real project behind it??
the last one I studied was $HOLO and it was a pleasant discovery, an AI for creating photos and videos..

Lesson on basic strategies

Let's start with one of the easiest and safest for newcomers: it's called Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
The idea is this: instead of investing all your money at once, invest a fixed amount every so often, regardless of whether the price is high or low. It works particularly well in downtrends or bear markets; it's a valid accumulation technique..
your average cost decreases and you don't have to watch the charts; you only do this with projects you know will definitely exist in 5 years.

Another way is to chase breakouts. Here you look at the price of an asset that moves within a range, like between 10 and 15.. and you wait for it to "break" upwards, exceeding 15. When it happens, with high volume, you enter and buy, hoping it continues to rise. But be careful, because sometimes it's a false breakout and the price goes back down. This technique is not simple at first and you often get hurt; I advise against it..

Another basic strategy is trend following: follow the direction of the market. If it's rising, buy; if it's falling, sell..
Look at the MAs or better the EMAs..
Don't fight the river; swim with it.

(keep in mind value investing: buy undervalued things, like a crypto that is worth 100 but is being sold for 70 because the market is scared.
Buying where you find extremely low RSI on wide time frames is often a good move)

A super simple, profitable strategy that requires discipline, patience, and hours of work on charts is the crossover of the 5 and 10 EMAs..
Put a low time frame 3-5-15 min (it should be clean without unpredictable ups and downs) buy and sell on the EMA crossovers; when the 5 EMA crosses above the 10, buy, and when it crosses below, sell..
great technique, requires time, there's a specific indicator

Start small, study a bit every day, and don't risk money you need to live.
Think carefully about how much time you are willing to invest and you will find the strategy that suits you

If you have questions or requests for topics, write to me
I think the next lessons are on other indicators (EMA, RSI, and MACD we have already seen)

Lesson on the order book and iceberg orders.

The order book is a useful but dangerous tool; one should not trust it and should not try to predict movements by observing it. It helps to understand the current situation and that's it. Some enormous orders pop up from nowhere and seem like impossible walls to overcome, convincing you that the price will never pass, but then they vanish in an instant. They are just there to influence others and make them believe there is a solid barrier.

You need to see how long those levels last: if an order remains there even when the price approaches, it might be real; if it disappears as soon as things move, then it was fake. Another thing to keep an eye on is how the price reacts when it touches certain levels. If it hits a level and bounces back sharply, there is really someone buying or selling. If, on the other hand, the price passes through as if it did not exist, those volumes were just there to make an "impression."

And don't be fooled by books that seem empty, because big traders use iceberg orders. With an iceberg order, you only show part of what you are selling or buying; as soon as that part is traded, another part of the iceberg replaces it. For example: you want to sell 1000 $ETH .. a considerable sum; placing a normal limit order would show everyone that you are selling a lot of eth at that price, discouraging buyers or pushing sellers to surpass your selling price to sell before you.

So, split the amount into 10 transactions of 100 eth; as soon as 100 are sold, the iceberg order puts another 100 up for sale.

Of course, a whale can also place 10 iceberg orders of 100 that sell 10 eth at a time, maybe spreading them a little in the order book. By doing so, you practically don't notice a sales wall, but it will be noticed only by the fact that the price continues to stop at those levels, and the traded volumes will be much higher than those shown in the order book.

If you have little funds, it doesn't make sense to use iceberg orders, but it is useful to understand how they work.
See you next time

meteo crypto: in two hours there will be a conference of the American Federal Reserve, almost certainly it will announce the famous 0.25% rate cut but the tone of the conference will determine what happens in the markets, high volatility is expected and "fake movements".
it might be better to close positions if you are very exposed, monitor the situation. it could be an opportunity but also a danger.
good luck

you may call me paranoid but I believe that Americans are systematically emptying their wallets.. if you look at the lateralization phase of $XRP and the gigantic flash crash of October, what can you notice?

I'll tell you, all the big selling candles were formed during the same hours that are the hours when only Americans are in the office..

From my position, it appears that the sales all happened within the usual three hours, which correspond to the time frame from 11 to 17 in America (depending on where one is located in America, whether on the east coast or the west coast)..

This paranoia of mine increases the conviction expressed in the previous post..

If the big players are distributing their positions, perhaps we are really at the top of the bull cycle..

do your own research, trust no one, opportunities are always there and one continues to work..

$XLM Anche XLM is showing a bearish divergence on the 1h timeframe, as I already mentioned in the previous post lessons, there are correlations between coins, BTC leads the market but there are also correlations between coins like XRP with XLM, the charts move "copying" each other. Here too, the bearish divergence on the 1h timeframe shows a decrease in bullish momentum suggesting a possible correction (price drop) or a phase of lateralization (the price will move in a sideways price range for a while).

Meanwhile, on the 4h timeframe, we see an attempt from the MACD to give us a sell signal (not yet confirmed) which will be confirmed when the lines cross, while in the chart we see the EMA 60 acting as support, if the price goes below 0.3238 closing a 4h candle below the EMA 60 it is very likely that the price will drop further in search of the next support. RSI shows 40 (neutral phase).

$XRP a bearish divergence has formed on the madc tf 1h, meaning that the bullish momentum is losing strength and will take a break, either consolidating or making a correction.
then if the supports hold, the trend could continue.

act accordingly

here are the results of the bot started yesterday in the previous post, with conclusions and reflections:
investment 300usdc on XRP, price range 2.30 - 2.50, geometric, 18 grids..

the bot worked well for 27h, generating 0.86 usdc plus another 2.20 usdc not to be considered (because the price of xrp rose above 2.50) each completed trade generated approximately 0.04 usdc.

as you can see, the price generated various trades to conclude its run exiting the upper range, this interrupted the bot's work, if I had checked the trail up option the price range would have moved upwards, allowing the bot to continue working but personally, I prefer to monitor its work myself.

conclusions:
if I had simply bought in spot the 300 USD in xrp and sold 24h later I would have earned more, but I could also have suffered losses.

if I deposited in earn the 300usdc I would have earned much less (perhaps less than a cent)

if I deposited in earn 300 usdc converted into xrp I would have earned a little more than just keeping them in spot (probably one or two cents more)

if the price of xrp had remained for a month in the price range I selected the bot would have continued to work generating with 300usdc about 0.70 usdc per day for a profit of about 21usdc.
which is a huge return compared to the simple earn mode. obviously, these are theoretical calculations because it is not certain that every day there are the same price fluctuations in xrp that complete the same number of trades.

this bot was set up centrally, meaning at startup the price of xrp was about 2.40. but if a price increase is expected and internal fluctuations are to be exploited without too much monitoring, it can be set up to buy everything at once and try to sell and trade at higher prices (in this example it should have been set with the price range between 2.38 and 2.58, so at startup at 2.40 it bought almost all 300usdc in xrp)

we will continue in the next post..
thank you for your attention

Lesson two on the Binance grid bot.
We saw how to set up a bot manually, but nothing prevents you from creating one using the help of an AI or copying an existing one by choosing from those shared by users.

Let's continue with the manual settings; another important option to set from the beginning is whether to make it geometric or arithmetic.

Arithmetic sets an interval between each trading level of the same value of the coin (for example, every 0.05$)

Geometric sets a different interval for each trading level; trades towards the lower price range will be tighter, while those in the higher range will be more spaced out, thus generating different profits at each level (less profit but more trades in the lower range and more profit in the higher range but completing fewer trades).

As you might guess, it's easier to predict the behavior of an arithmetic bot, but the geometric one can be more performant.

For cryptocurrencies that are very volatile, you should choose the geometric option, while if the price tends to be more stable, the arithmetic option is just fine.

The bot obviously holds a certain amount of coins, so it will be subject to price fluctuations of the coin, which determines the "variable profit" that can be negative if the coin drops after your launch.

What matters to us is that the bot continues to work and generate profits.

Personally, I suggest you get help from artificial intelligence to set up the ideal bot for you. For example, some time ago, I set up a bot that generated only 0.03$ per trade, 1.5$ per day, with an investment of about 2400$, using an AI (ChatGPT, Grok, etc.) I got help to set it up so that each trade generated 0.50$ per trade, managing to generate approximately 10$ per day.

Of course, with a small capital, you should expect small profits.

I started the example bot created in the screenshot of the previous post, 300$ investment, profit per grid about 0.04$, it will work for the next 24 hours, and I will give you a report.

As promised, we talk about bots. You will come across posts that direct you to bots outside of Binance or that attach bots to Binance. Avoid anything of this kind; the crypto sector is full of scams, hackers, and little-known rules..

Binance has its own bots implemented that you can use right away from their app. Just go to spot, on the chart page of a crypto, and in the lower left, you have the hub button. A list will open, and there will also be the spot grid; it's a basic bot.

Basically, you tell it, "Work between this price range and start now or when the price reaches that level, and you need to create x exchange zones."

In practice, it will buy a certain amount of currency at startup, and it will keep a portion of the funds you provided free, creating a series of buy orders and a series of sell orders.

When the price drops, it buys, and when the price rises, it sells..

Basically, at every price level, it buys and then sells at the level just above. If the price keeps rising, the level where it sold last time turns into a buy order.

The capital you provided has been divided by the number of levels you set, so at each level, it will only use a small part of the capital you gave it. If the price range to work in is too small and you set too many grids, each grid might not give you profit because you have to consider that the bot also has to pay fees to buy and sell.

It is therefore important to look at how much profit percentage each grid generates when we are setting up the bot; it will be highlighted in green during the bot setup.. (it must be above 0.10%, from there on are your earnings)

On the other hand, setting too few grids or price ranges that are too wide will not make the bot work (because perhaps the price of the currency will not move enough up and down).

Another consideration to make is that the currency must go up and down in price but must also stay within the bot's working range for as long as possible.

Next post: practical lesson

lesson on the feelings of the trader..
we were supposed to talk about bots but I prefer to take the opportunity to talk about something more important...

the previous post to this, I had provided a practical example of a trade, and it had gone quite well, and there was a trade still in progress, with entry at 2.42 -2.43, support at 2.40

well as you can see in theory it went great, the price skyrocketed to 2.52..

but then why didn’t I sell at the peak taking home a 2.5% profit? because I waited and now I’m at the support with a slight loss?

because of timing and feelings..
I’ll explain, simply I had commitments and couldn’t keep an eye on the chart, I noticed it had reached 2.50 due to an alert set at that figure.. but I hadn’t set any take profit, when I finally opened the chart we were in the blue area, more or less..

i didn’t sell because I was greedy, tempted by the previous peak I thought that if I let it run I would earn more ..

so I didn’t sell and I didn’t even set a take profit.. I simply closed the app and that’s it, but it doesn’t end here,
both last night and this morning I had to make a bit of mental effort to calm other feelings.. like bad mood, anger with myself, the frustration of having lost a couple of hundred.. the embarrassment of having messed up a very easy trade that happened to be one of the few made "public"..

these are things that happen, we are human and we have lives, it’s normal to be "distracted".. opportunities come back and money goes and comes, the important thing is to know how to overcome these moments by suppressing negative emotions, knowing how to forgive ourselves and above all the most important thing of all is not to blame others for our distractions and not to unload our bad moods onto friends, relatives or anyone else..

we need to have patience in trading, but not just patience in waiting for the right moments but also with ourselves, even with good techniques and good experience you will never be infallible..

until next time, we will talk about bots promised

I think it's important to show you some real situations in addition to explaining the basics, so I'm attaching a screenshot of my latest trades.. we are on the 1-hour time frame so we can see a broader period but remember that I work on the 15-minute tf.. the first trade is highlighted in orange, where orders came in at night while I was sleeping, I then set a limit of 2.19 as a line beyond which I would not accept losses, it wasn't an arbitrary figure, if you open the tf for 3 days and zoom in on the chart, you'll see that the area between 2.19 and 2.23 was a very solid area in the past where the price stayed for a long time.. fortunately, the support held and I was able to let the trade run, where you see the Xs on the white markers are fake sales, the first is for 3 xrp and the second is for 10 xrp.. (I needed them for other reasons) the real final sale was made at the bottom of the orange area.. (if you don't trust me, I can show you the screenshots of the trades..)

then we have another standard operation in light blue

the current one in yellow still open, which has support at 2.40

and then we have a useless operation in purple where I bought and sold immediately after (I didn't like the situation of the chart and the indicators and I was tired, I preferred to close immediately)

finally, I wanted to point out that even if not entirely voluntarily, there was a short operation in blue, meaning I sold and bought back at a lower price later, that operation if I remember correctly yielded an increase of about 35 xrp.. which at the current price is about 80-90 dollars.. obviously, not everything always goes smoothly, you have to be ready to act, cut losses, and take profits, sometimes it will go wrong, the important thing is that you learn and improve and that the final sum is positive for you..
you might not see the signals that I saw during the execution of these trades due to the different tf, but in general, I am satisfied, I will also update you on the yellow trade that is still ongoing.. next lessons on bots

sixth lesson, point three on how to choose the Coin to work on, look for favorable moments to enter and exit.. (for point one and two see previous posts).

as with everything, there are various ways to operate, but the basic rule "buy the dip" always applies, that is, you wait for a bottom of a decline to buy and you wait for a rise, at first it may be the hardest thing to understand because you need to have a trained eye on the charts and find your own style, and you need to observe multiple indicators and time frames, I personally start from the RSI, it must be strongly oversold (from 19 down), it must also be oversold (less than 25) on higher time frames (generally I work on the 15min and look at the 1h and 4h but you might want to work on the 3min tf and look at the 5min or 15min and 1h..), from there I look if we are close to a support (price level where the Coin in the past struggled to overcome or has already held and rejected the price in the past), it is a good thing to buy on support and in case sell if it is broken with confirmation (you always wait for the candle close to have a confirmation and decide)..

a single peak in volumes is often found at the bottom of a decline, but if you want to avoid trying to catch falling knives, you can wait for signals of a reversal, in any case you never go all in in one shot, you can buy a part and wait for the rest.

take into account these three tips:
1 prices go up and down, so nothing drops infinitely (we're talking about big established Coins) and nothing rises infinitely.. the faster the rise or decline, the stronger the bounce in the opposite direction will be..

2 statistically it is unlikely that when you open a chart, you open it at the perfect moment to enter.. it will hardly happen, generally you need to follow the price trend

3 if you always work on the same coins you will learn to know them, to understand how they move and the important price levels (resistances and supports) and you will have an idea of how much they usually fluctuate

fifth lesson and tips:
now among the Coin group we have selected, we need to find those that show a favorable situation using indicators. If you work on short time frames, you are more likely to encounter favorable situations, while if you work on wide time frames (4h-1d), it will be more difficult, and you will probably have to wait much longer and practice little (I assume you are still learning, so we invest little but often to practice and gain experience). So try to make short-duration trades on short time frames of 3m-5m-15m..

check the general situation on the wide time frame to understand the direction and current moment, then scale down to shorter time frames arriving at your time frame..

for now, being on spot, we can earn from price increases directly (I buy the Coin and sell it at a higher price) or we can earn more coins that we already own by selling them at a high price and buying them back at a lower price.. (I sell total Coin XX at 10$ , the price drops, and I buy them back at 5$ = I have double the Coins, and the value of my investment remains the same). It is important to know how to hold the Coins when they rise and sell high, but it is also important to know how to sell the Coins that we hold (we keep them for long periods) when they show us clear signs of wanting to decrease in price, so we not only protect our capital but can also increase the amount of coins we possess (obviously, they must be coins that we know are solid, important, and large projects; we do not hold garbage coins.. since most Coins are destined to die..)

an example is to go see the official website of a Coin.. some don't even bother to have a website that works decently..

use the sites Coinmarketcap, coingeko, and coinglass.. they help you a lot in your research.. both for the solidity of a project and for indicators; for example, on coinglass, you can check the RSI of all cryptos at once..

fourth lesson: we have arrived at the point of having to choose which Coin to work on, we have already said that three fundamental points are needed,
1. clean charts, and we saw how a clean chart looks (previous post)
2 the percentage (%) of movements must be wide enough to allow us to earn easily without risking burning profits with commissions and ensuring we invest our time well..
3 we need favorable signals for an entry..

so let's talk about point 2..
let's start with Bitcoin BTC, it is the guide of everything, very often the cryptos follow its trend creating almost identical charts with differences in the percentages of movements, for example if btc moves by 1% other cryptos may move by 3-5% making the same movements.. the same thing happens with cryptos that are thematically linked or are related, for example xrp with xlm sometimes their two charts go hand in hand but the percentages of movements change, in summary, it is advantageous for us to work where there is a bit more volatility than btc

(I remind you that we are in spot where we do not increase capital with loans so we must try to make our capital work best by leveraging the most favorable Coins)

on the other hand, we cannot choose newly listed Coins, there the movements are often extreme and difficult to predict, again we should not be tempted by quick gains, because losses will also be quick. better to learn to create profit in a solid way.

to understand if the movement percentages are good, we go to the Time frame you have chosen based on how you are willing to work (we have already talked about this in previous posts), find a Coin with clean charts and manually check how wide the "hills" are.
do your research in the market screen, select the stablecoin you prefer to use (usdt or usdc) and arrange the Coins in descending order of volume.. we need important cryptos that are highly traded.

we will continue from here

other tips, more practical explanation of the previous lesson: as you can see in the attached photo this is an ideal sample chart. it is clean, there are no sudden changes, it is a currency that often moves like this (xrp).. from left to right now let's look at the details as if the chart were being drawn in front of our eyes.. first blue dot on the left: at this moment we see a very low RSI (14) indicating oversold but neither the ema nor the macd provide confirmation, the volumes are increasing confirming the bearish moment.. we need to wait, in the next phase we have two blue circles corresponding to RSI and MACD, the RSI at 17 and the crossing of the macd lines tell us to buy but the emas have not yet crossed (the yellow line of ema 5 following the candles is still below the blue ema 10).. one could enter with a small part of our funds but it would be better to wait for further confirmation.. which does not take long to arrive indeed shortly after we have three positive signals all together, RSI makes another low peak at 17, macd crosses and emas swap places and we also have a decent increase in volumes.. perfect entry (purple zone).. subsequently the chart moves in a super clean manner, the price remains stable above the ema 10 (orange zone) until the top when we have two top signals, RSI at 84 and a single peak in volumes, and the ema shortly after swap positions, ideal moment to exit and take profit.. often it is better to be content and be happy for having managed to follow one's strategy with discipline.. this is a practical explanation of the tips and explanations I wrote in the previous post.. if you have questions write to me, of course you can find other ways and other indicators to use or set the indicators as you prefer.. curiosity: why did I set the chart candles to be white and green? personally I noticed that red creates anxiety for me psychologically, it negatively influenced me in trading, while white does not..