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Regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, the current market expectations are as follows: #美国民主党BlueVault
Major institutions' forecasts: Goldman Sachs: Expects a 25 basis point cut in June and September, totaling 50 basis points for the year.
Morgan Stanley: Expects a 25 basis point cut in April and July, totaling 50 basis points for the year.
Nomura Securities: Expects a 25 basis point cut in June and September. JPMorgan: Expects no cuts for the year, with a potential 25 basis point increase in the third quarter of 2027.
Citi Research: Expects a total cut of 75 basis points for the year (3 times 25 basis points).
HSBC and Standard Chartered: Expect no cuts for the year. Macquarie Bank: Expects an interest rate increase in the fourth quarter. Key influencing factors Inflation data: If the core PCE price index continues to rise above 2% year-on-year, it may delay interest rate cuts. Employment market: If non-farm data remains strong, it may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts.
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