Ravinxweb3

Tonight at 9 PM, the $ESPORTS and $CLO trading competitions will end. Their current values are 31u and just under 12u, respectively. These two are still quite difficult to predict, especially CLO, as it mainly involves people just playing around and trying to steal the leaderboard. As usual, I will directly save bandwidth in the last section to share the prediction results. For those who do not want to see the intermediate data analysis, you can jump straight to the last section to see the prediction results.
First is $ESPORTS, with a daily trading volume of 470 million as of today, November 30. If today ends, it will probably be around 550 million in daily trading volume, and I feel it will not exceed 600 million in daily trading volume, with a total of 6900 spots available. Based on a 60% leaderboard rate, that would be 600000000×60%÷6900=52173.913043478. If the daily trading volume is 650 million, the threshold would be 650000000×60%÷6900=56521.739130435, but I don't think it will reach that much. Therefore, the precise threshold line is around 55,000; it should not reach 60,000, and 65,000 is basically quite stable. If seeking stability, 65,000 can be used, while 60,000 is basically right on the edge of the threshold line.
The remaining one is CLO, which is more difficult to handle. Most people are planning to trade a few thousand to steal the leaderboard. As of today at noon, November 30, the daily trading volume is 6.33 million. This is quite tricky, as most people are trading a few thousand to try and steal the leaderboard, making it difficult to predict. However, if it stays as it is, the daily trading volume will not increase too much. I feel that by the end of today, it will probably be around 8 to 9 million in daily trading volume. Based on 9 million in daily trading volume, we cannot use a 60% leaderboard rate because everyone is similar, all trading a few thousand in reality. Therefore, we can only use a 25% leaderboard rate: 90000000×25%÷3330=6756.756756757, but I feel it will not reach 9 million in daily trading volume. Thus, the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, with 6,500 basically being enough. If seeking stability, 7,000 can be used.
In summary, the threshold line for esports is just under 60,000, around 55,000. Trading at 60,000 is quite risky, as it is basically on the edge; if seeking stability, 65,000 to 70,000 can be traded; the threshold line for CLO is around 5,000 to 6,000, and if you want to steal the leaderboard, trading at 6,500 to 7,000 will suffice.

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