苹果BLUE
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Trader's Equation
Al Brooks said that the most important thing in trading is that everything has a mathematical basis.
Win rate * Profit - Loss rate * Risk = Expectation. Every successful quantitative trade calculates mathematical expectation for each trade.
All successful traders are proficient in the trader's equation. The trader's equation, as mentioned by Al Brooks, is actually the formula for what is known as expected value. How much profit you can make depends entirely on the win rate. Multiply by the profit and the odds of losing, multiplied by the difference between risk. The most intuitive and easiest to understand is that the odds of flipping a fair coin are 50% for heads and 50% for tails. If we make a bet based on this, I will give you 1000 yuan for heads.
Win rate * Profit - Loss rate * Risk = Expectation. Every successful quantitative trade calculates mathematical expectation for each trade.
All successful traders are proficient in the trader's equation. The trader's equation, as mentioned by Al Brooks, is actually the formula for what is known as expected value. How much profit you can make depends entirely on the win rate. Multiply by the profit and the odds of losing, multiplied by the difference between risk. The most intuitive and easiest to understand is that the odds of flipping a fair coin are 50% for heads and 50% for tails. If we make a bet based on this, I will give you 1000 yuan for heads.
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Mathematical Expectation
Diary
I used to think that it was the operators controlling the ups and downs, then I thought it was the market makers controlling them, but both have logical flaws and cannot form a complete logical loop. The concept of operators became so popular partly because, when regulation was lax, there were indeed many operators in the A-shares harvesting retail investors. But now with strict regulation, the risks of operating have become too high compared to the profits.
Moreover, in such a vast market as futures, no one can truly manipulate it— not even the giants like hedge funds and quantitative institutions, which are just a very small part of the entire market. Once you try to manipulate, larger funds will come to counter you. There have been too many schemes of forced shorts and longs in the history of futures; methods like spoofing which caused the flash crash in U.S. stocks in 2010 have long been banned today with global regulation tightening. Later I learned that there are not only market makers providing orders in the market. Furthermore, the trading strategies of quantitative institutions, hedge funds, and market makers are commercial secrets; once leaked, they will be targeted by other institutions, leading to the failure of the strategy. Therefore, it is almost impossible for ordinary people to fully understand these.
I used to think that it was the operators controlling the ups and downs, then I thought it was the market makers controlling them, but both have logical flaws and cannot form a complete logical loop. The concept of operators became so popular partly because, when regulation was lax, there were indeed many operators in the A-shares harvesting retail investors. But now with strict regulation, the risks of operating have become too high compared to the profits.
Moreover, in such a vast market as futures, no one can truly manipulate it— not even the giants like hedge funds and quantitative institutions, which are just a very small part of the entire market. Once you try to manipulate, larger funds will come to counter you. There have been too many schemes of forced shorts and longs in the history of futures; methods like spoofing which caused the flash crash in U.S. stocks in 2010 have long been banned today with global regulation tightening. Later I learned that there are not only market makers providing orders in the market. Furthermore, the trading strategies of quantitative institutions, hedge funds, and market makers are commercial secrets; once leaked, they will be targeted by other institutions, leading to the failure of the strategy. Therefore, it is almost impossible for ordinary people to fully understand these.
As the high-rise towers host guests, they collapse; the final result of each myth in this circle is always a mess, and few can escape unscathed...
Trading has a cost and is expensive. I will still focus on wedges. I've done more than a dozen trades with a win rate of just over 30%. Since I entered the trading circle, I've really never seen a trader who can consistently make a profit. Long-term stability requires a tremendous amount of effort and costs calculated over the years. That's just how trading is; after 10 years, not achieving stable profits and experiencing losses for a decade is a normal and unavoidable reality.
A very harsh statistic I asked AI about is that globally, only one in ten thousand traders achieves an average annualized return of 15%, with institutions making up the majority. Meanwhile, the fees for you and me could exceed 15% each year, and even if we break even, the fees will drain us. This is not about rebate schemes; it’s about speaking the truth.
So, I am very clear that all newcomers entering the market are essentially giving away money. The probability is not 90% but 99%. Mathematics has calculated the downfall of all users. The platform fees and various already-profitable quantitative algorithms in the market have mathematically closed off almost all paths for retail investors. No matter what strategy is used, one always finds it impossible to achieve stable profits. Those big shots always showcase ways to achieve stable profits, so let’s take our time and experiment. Trial and error is the biggest cost for traders because nearly 99% of stable profit strategies are traps. All trading before achieving stable profits is speculative gambling, yet you and I believe it's technical analysis or value investing.
So how can one make money in this market? Hard waiting for cycles is the only choice for retail investors.
I always come across trading competitions at a certain institution; regardless of how many top-ranked influencers there are, none have stable profits. The difficulty of trading is directly presented. In fact, if you ask any AI to search for the difficulty of achieving stable profits, it will tell you that this difficulty ranks among the top three in all professions...
I also want to try manual trading to see if I can achieve stable profits. I’ve only done a little over ten trades in wedges out of a goal of ten thousand. I feel this isn't the final answer...
At first, I thought my win rate with wedges was 75%, then I thought it could be 40%, but I didn't expect that 40% would actually be the upper limit. I have always emphasized the importance of mathematical expectations, but I cannot prove it.
Some people have achieved stable profits through this model, so I might as well try more; maybe a simple method can yield results.
A very harsh statistic I asked AI about is that globally, only one in ten thousand traders achieves an average annualized return of 15%, with institutions making up the majority. Meanwhile, the fees for you and me could exceed 15% each year, and even if we break even, the fees will drain us. This is not about rebate schemes; it’s about speaking the truth.
So, I am very clear that all newcomers entering the market are essentially giving away money. The probability is not 90% but 99%. Mathematics has calculated the downfall of all users. The platform fees and various already-profitable quantitative algorithms in the market have mathematically closed off almost all paths for retail investors. No matter what strategy is used, one always finds it impossible to achieve stable profits. Those big shots always showcase ways to achieve stable profits, so let’s take our time and experiment. Trial and error is the biggest cost for traders because nearly 99% of stable profit strategies are traps. All trading before achieving stable profits is speculative gambling, yet you and I believe it's technical analysis or value investing.
So how can one make money in this market? Hard waiting for cycles is the only choice for retail investors.
I always come across trading competitions at a certain institution; regardless of how many top-ranked influencers there are, none have stable profits. The difficulty of trading is directly presented. In fact, if you ask any AI to search for the difficulty of achieving stable profits, it will tell you that this difficulty ranks among the top three in all professions...
I also want to try manual trading to see if I can achieve stable profits. I’ve only done a little over ten trades in wedges out of a goal of ten thousand. I feel this isn't the final answer...
At first, I thought my win rate with wedges was 75%, then I thought it could be 40%, but I didn't expect that 40% would actually be the upper limit. I have always emphasized the importance of mathematical expectations, but I cannot prove it.
Some people have achieved stable profits through this model, so I might as well try more; maybe a simple method can yield results.
$ETH Spot buying should not be done too early... we are still in the early to mid-stage of a bear market, the super cycle of CZ is unlikely to come, and the time worth buying is at the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.
$ETH The bear is completely down... After falling from a high point, it will take a year for the bear to recover, and it hasn't fallen to the right level yet... The bearish target still needs to drop at least 800 dollars, which is a long-term trend
The apple point orders received two, but all the trades on the right side are wrong, recently the right side has completely cooled down, not sure how to say it
$RIVER The market waves and charts here can explain everything. The short position at 83.842 on Apple is almost the highest point for the shadow line, and the accuracy has been decent lately. Anyway, looking back, the position is not bad, but the short selling cost is too high to hold... I don't know how long it will drop, so I’m giving a bottom-fishing position for Apple at 20.298.
The left side is still professional... a steady 15% for profit taking, a greedy 30%.
The left side is still professional... a steady 15% for profit taking, a greedy 30%.
$ACU Metaphysics takes off, relying on intuition or gambling sense, how can technical analysis be more important than feelings?
$CLO Apple point adjustment to 0.2317, if the short position given at 0.51 a few days ago was not executed, then place an order... Recently, the apple point actually performed well, the clos I provided in the past were all accurate... Alright, without further ado, let's wait for verification, eat a little less and then run, let's say 15%...
$ACU This coin reversed twice in the demand zone, the demand zone provided yesterday was not bad... I think it will soar.
$ACU Let's talk about non-technical things. This coin hasn't gone live on the spot market yet, and the triangle convergence is at 55 for long and short positions. However, coins that haven't hit the spot market will soar. ACU is the next meme coin... waiting for a breakthrough to issue an apple entry point.
$ETH The Ethereum completely starts the震荡 trend bottom from here, starting to be bullish, piercing the K-line, seeing 3257, the震荡 range usually does not leave gaps and at least returns to fill the gaps... Android strategy +1
$ZEC Wedge + Double Bottom, a relatively complex structure. I first saw 520. In fact, the large short structure of this ZEC in the past is prone to reversal. Making a reversal is indeed a trade with a low win rate, but even today I am still doing it...
The background has the potential for reversal coupled with a bottom engulfing candlestick pinbar, it is possible to go long, with the stop loss placed at the bottom of the wedge, entering at 388 with a target of 520.
Walmart trade: if the opponent doesn't move, I won't move.
Android strategy +1
The background has the potential for reversal coupled with a bottom engulfing candlestick pinbar, it is possible to go long, with the stop loss placed at the bottom of the wedge, entering at 388 with a target of 520.
Walmart trade: if the opponent doesn't move, I won't move.
Android strategy +1
$ACU is another demand area, a reversal may occur
$RIVER feels that it is not very suitable for trading recently, the state hasn't returned... aster I also don't have the layout 😂 a big bearish line made me think it would go to 0.57... alright, alright, Apple is done...
$BTR The big rise and fall oscillation trend has started~I have never really believed in terms like dog stock.
$RIVER The cost is really hard to evaluate, after the fee is charged it drops again, intimidating the shorts.
$FHE The mathematical expectation for positive trading opportunities... Is there a double bottom? What are you afraid of? Go long, take a two-to-one risk-reward ratio, as long as there is a mathematical advantage, go for it.
The fees in the crypto world are still too frightening, charging once an hour, I made a small profit of over ten percent.
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